Vladimir Guerrero

Vladimir Guerrero

23-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Toronto Blue Jays
2023 Fantasy Outlook
It was expected that Guerrero Jr would drop back off his incredible 2021 season due to Toronto playing fulltime at Rogers Centre rather than the cozy environments of Dunedin and Buffalo as well as the changes to Camden Yards for road trip. Factor in the mushball and his homers dropped off to where we reastically should have expected them to be but it was surprising to see both his runs and RBIs fall back below 100 considering the talent in the lineup around him in Toronto. Whereas he hit .315 with 11 homers with runners in scoring position in 2021, those numbers fell to 5 and .267 respectively last year in nearly identical sample sizes. RISP production lacks year over year stickiness, but it was an issue last year as the league did tend to pitch around him leading to more walks (11%) in those situations than others (8%.) The 8 steals were a nice bonus considering he is not the fleetest of foot. We can call him a five-category contributor as a first baseman; he cannot quite pull off a younger Paul Goldschmidt, but who can? Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
$Signed a one-year, $7.9 million contract with the Blue Jays in March of 2022.
Sits for Game 2 of twin bill
1BToronto Blue Jays
October 5, 2022
Guerrero is out of the lineup for the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader with the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
After going 2-for-4 with a walk and a run scored in the Blue Jays' 5-4 loss in Game 1, Guerrero will retreat to the bench for the regular-season finale. He'll be absent from the lineup for the first time since July 5 and will close the season with a .274 batting average, 32 home runs, 97 RBI, 90 runs and eight stolen bases.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
50
77
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
14
17
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+6%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+18%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+8%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+17%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .854 361 60 20 40 2 .264 .360 .494
Since 2020vs Right .901 1286 187 69 201 11 .294 .365 .536
2022vs Left .711 122 13 4 12 1 .245 .320 .391
2022vs Right .841 584 77 28 85 7 .280 .342 .498
2021vs Left .946 173 33 11 19 1 .295 .405 .541
2021vs Right 1.020 525 90 37 92 3 .317 .400 .620
2020vs Left .887 66 14 5 9 0 .224 .318 .569
2020vs Right .757 177 20 4 24 1 .276 .333 .423
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+21%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+6%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+29%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+40%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .977 795 135 54 145 7 .305 .379 .599
Since 2020Away .807 848 111 34 95 6 .272 .350 .457
2022Home .842 345 46 19 55 3 .273 .330 .511
2022Away .795 361 44 13 42 5 .276 .346 .449
2021Home 1.133 346 70 31 69 3 .332 .425 .708
2021Away .875 352 53 17 42 1 .291 .378 .497
2020Home .932 104 19 4 21 1 .326 .385 .547
2020Away .666 135 14 4 11 0 .213 .289 .377
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Stat Review
How does Vladimir Guerrero compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.50
 
BB Rate
8.2%
 
K Rate
16.4%
 
BABIP
.289
 
ISO
.205
 
AVG
.274
 
OBP
.339
 
SLG
.480
 
OPS
.818
 
wOBA
.354
 
Exit Velocity
92.8 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
38.6%
 
Barrels/PA
8.4%
 
Expected BA
.276
 
Expected SLG
.462
 
Sprint Speed
21.3 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
52.1%
 
Line Drive %
17.3%
 
Fly Ball %
30.6%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
All that promise was realized in 2021 as Guerrero finished as an AL MVP finalist at age 21. The baseball skills are off the charts, with his bat speed, plate coverage and plate discipline all being exceptional even to the relatively naked baseball eye. It shows up in his Statcast numbers, too. Guerrero landed in the top 3% of the league in avgEV, maxEV, Hard Hit% and xwOBA last season. What Guerrero is not is the world's greatest natural athlete, and that shows in the lack of stolen bases and middling defensive numbers even after a move across the diamond to first base. However, Guerrero did show more dedication to training and was noticeably slimmer for much of the 2021 season. As long as he takes care of his body, Guerrero can follow in his father's footsteps into the Hall of Fame one day. In the meantime, Guerrero should stand side by side with Juan Soto as one of the greatest pure hitters of this new generation.
Vladito came into spring training looking slimmer than how he had finished 2019 and many were excited enough to once again draft him in the top 50. Once the pandemic hit, Guerrero's conditioning evaporated and he showed up hefty in July and took a while to get going in 2020. His final numbers were pretty much in line with what he did in his rookie season, which was a disappointment given the high bar his talent sets for him. He has tremendous power and an excellent hit tool, but a 2:1 groundball-to-flyball ratio ultimately limited his power output. His average exit velocity is in the top 10% of the league in spite of his conditioning issues, so his path to a 25-plus homer season is rather easy to envision. Guerrero got working on his conditioning right as the season ended and dropped 32 pounds by early November with an eye on moving back to third base. He will likely be drafted in the top 50 again; maybe this time he produces like a top 50 pick.
Once he overcame a spring oblique injury, Guerrero arrived in Toronto in late April for one of the most anticipated debuts in recent memory. Given the hype that surrounded him as baseball's top prospect along with his exorbitant cost in fantasy drafts and auctions, it's not totally unfair to view Guerrero's first season as disappointing. Even so, the fact that he was an above-average hitter (105 wRC+) at 20 years old is reason enough to be bullish about his outlook moving forward. Guerrero may have set the wheels in motion for a breakout based on the adjustments he made in the second half, when he slashed .293/.349/.452 and enjoyed a stretch from late July to late August where he was one of the majors' top hitters. Despite not meeting the sky-high expectations as a rookie, Guerrero won't come at a discount in 2020, as his reputation as a generational hitter remains intact in the minds of many.
It has become an annual tradition for there to be a line in the sand, where fantasy analysts argue over whether the top prospect in baseball is worth his draft price. Of course, not all No. 1 prospects are created equal. In this case, the best hitting prospect in a generation is set to debut in mid-to-late April. He will be a second-round pick in some redraft leagues. Believers are paying up while doubters decry that anyone who pays that price is banking on the best-case scenario. It is widely accepted that Guerrero has an 80-grade hit tool. Scouts go years without bestowing that on a prospect, and some refuse to do so out of principle. He has at least 70-grade raw power, generating elite exit velocities in the Arizona Fall League. With all this in mind, nobody should be surprised if Guerrero hits well over .300 with 25-plus home runs in his MLB debut. He has a thick lower half and figures to eventually move off third base to first base or designated hitter.
An 18-year-old with future 70s and 80s on his hit and power tools (depending which scout you ask), Guerrero looks like a generational hitting talent. His accomplishments as the youngest player at Low-A and High-A rightfully inspire awe and hyperbole. Among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Guerrero’s 151 wRC+ ranked eighth in the Midwest League and his 179 wRC+ ranked first in the Florida State League. He walked significantly more than he struck out at both stops and appears to have experienced normal luck on balls in play. The more outlandish his assignment, the more productive Guerrero became. He will stick at third base for now, and while he could move to first base, an outfield corner or DH down the road, it has become clear that his bat will profile anywhere. He should finish his age-19 season at Triple-A, which could set him up to be next year’s Ronald Acuna, primed for a mid-April callup in 2019.
One may be tempted to say that Guerrero has impossibly large shoes to fill, but judging by the early returns at the ripe age of 17, the new "Junior" looks up to the task. He made it look easy at rookie-level Bluefield in 2016, posting a 122 wRC+, eight homers and a 33:35 BB:K in 276 plate appearances against competition that was on average more than three years older than him. Guerrero also showed an ability to handle right-handed pitching (.859 OPS), a necessity for any right-handed power bat. He may have to move from third base to first base or an outfield corner, but if he hits as expected, he will be a perennial early-round pick in fantasy, regardless of where he plays. He has a little speed at this stage but that is unlikely to be a big part of his game at maturity. While Guerrero is several years away from reaching the majors, he has all the makings of an impact fantasy option.
Few names are as synonymous with raw power as Vladimir Guerrero, so it’s no surprise that his 16-year-old son looks like quite the prospect. Signed in July of 2015 for $3.9 million, the teenager is a free-swinging power hitter that shares a number of other traits with his father. At the plate, despite being born in 1999, he has good hand-eye coordination and tremendous bat speed. He’s a poor runner, grading out as a 35 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he possesses less-than-ideal arm strength (unlike his father, who packed a Howitzer). While that’s not to say that he can’t develop into the player his father was, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Guerrero still has plenty of time to mature into a strong MLB contributor. He should start the season playing rookie ball, and while his dream of playing in the majors at 18 is highly unlikely to happen, he has the power to progress rapidly through the minor league ranks.
More Fantasy News
Swats 32nd homer
1BToronto Blue Jays
October 4, 2022
Guerrero went 1-for-3 with a walk and a solo home run in Monday's 5-1 win over the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Launches three-run homer in loss
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 21, 2022
Guerrero went 1-for-5 with a three-run home run in Wednesday's extra-inning loss to the Phillies.
ANALYSIS
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Slugs 100th career home run
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 14, 2022
Guerrero went 1-for-4 with a solo home run and an additional RBI in Wednesday's 5-1 win over the Rays.
ANALYSIS
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Swipes seventh bag
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 6, 2022
Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a walk, an RBI and a stolen base in the first game of Monday's doubleheader sweep of the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Slugs 27th homer
1BToronto Blue Jays
August 31, 2022
Guerrero went 3-for-4 with a home run and two RBI in Tuesday's 5-3 win over the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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