Vladimir Guerrero

Vladimir Guerrero

25-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Toronto Blue Jays
2024 Fantasy Outlook
In the spring of 2022, Guerrero Jr. famously stated that 2021 was a trailer and now fans will see a movie. Like most sequels, the team and the player has failed to deliver on promises. Guerrero's 2021 nomadic season in friendly run environments helped him established career hights he has failed to come close to in each of the past two seasons. Management tweaked Rogers Centre before the 2023 season, but that did not prevent Guerrero's overall numbers from sliding for a second consecutive season as he and the rest of the club struggled to produce runs despite plenty of traffic on the bases throughout the season. If you treat 2021 as an outlier rather than a ceiling, 2024 Guerrero Jr. should not disappoint you given his skills provide a very high floor. Just remember that sequels are rarely better than the original and Vlady's 2021 season is a cult classic that should be appreciated rather than expected. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#30
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $19.9 million contract with the Blue Jays in February of 2024.
Provides only offense Friday
1BToronto Blue Jays
June 22, 2024
Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in Friday's loss to the Guardians.
ANALYSIS
The first baseman took Carlos Carrasco deep in the fourth inning, but it was all the offense the Blue Jays could muster in a 7-1 loss. Guerrero hadn't gone yard since June 6, and while he continues to scald the ball -- he's in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate -- a 5.9 degree average launch angle is costing him power. On the season, he's batting .281 with a career-low .406 SLG, eight homers and 31 RBI in 75 games.
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Batting Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
27
34
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
8
6
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+9%
OPS vs RHP
2024
 
 
+1%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+3%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+18%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .743 307 32 8 34 4 .260 .365 .378
Since 2022vs Right .807 1412 168 58 188 11 .273 .341 .465
2024vs Left .757 61 5 2 13 1 .240 .377 .380
2024vs Right .764 270 27 6 18 1 .285 .359 .405
2023vs Left .766 124 14 2 9 2 .284 .403 .363
2023vs Right .792 558 64 24 85 3 .260 .332 .460
2022vs Left .711 122 13 4 12 1 .245 .320 .391
2022vs Right .841 584 77 28 85 7 .280 .342 .498
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+4%
OPS on Road
2024
 
 
+3%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+20%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+6%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .780 841 101 32 119 8 .265 .338 .442
Since 2022Away .811 878 99 34 103 7 .277 .353 .458
2024Home .776 160 16 3 18 2 .303 .381 .394
2024Away .752 171 16 5 13 0 .253 .345 .407
2023Home .716 336 39 10 46 3 .238 .324 .391
2023Away .858 346 39 16 48 2 .289 .364 .494
2022Home .842 345 46 19 55 3 .273 .330 .511
2022Away .795 361 44 13 42 5 .276 .346 .449
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Stat Review
How does Vladimir Guerrero compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.69
 
BB Rate
11.5%
 
K Rate
16.6%
 
BABIP
.319
 
ISO
.123
 
AVG
.277
 
OBP
.363
 
SLG
.401
 
OPS
.763
 
wOBA
.341
 
Exit Velocity
94.6 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
41.3%
 
Barrels/PA
8.8%
 
Expected BA
.300
 
Expected SLG
.498
 
Sprint Speed
22.2 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
52.3%
 
Line Drive %
19.0%
 
Fly Ball %
28.7%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Cubs check in
1BToronto Blue Jays
June 13, 2024
The Cubs touched base with the Blue Jays regarding a potential trade for Guerrero, reports Jim Bowden of The Athletic.
ANALYSIS
Toronto GM Ross Atkins recently downplayed the idea of trading Guerrero or Bo Bichette, but that likely won't prevent contenders from checking in. Guerrero has hit just seven homers and has a career-low .127 ISO through 68 games this season, but he has a solid .281/.370/.408 slash line and 36:50 BB:K. He would generate plenty of trade interest should Atkins entertain offers.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
It was expected that Guerrero would drop back from his incredible 2021 season due to Toronto playing full-time at Rogers Centre rather than the cozy environments of Dunedin and Buffalo, as well as the changes to Camden Yards for road trips. Factor in the mushball and his homers dropped off to where we realistically should have expected them to be, but it was surprising to see both his runs and RBIs fall back below 100 considering the talent in the lineup around him in Toronto. Whereas he hit .315 with 11 homers with runners in scoring position in 2021, those numbers fell to .267 and five respectively last year in nearly identical sample sizes. RISP production lacks year-over-year stickiness, but it was an issue last year as the league did tend to pitch around him leading to more walks (11 percent) in those situations than others (eight percent.) The eight steals were a nice bonus, considering he is not the fleetest of foot. We can call him a five-category contributor as a first baseman; he cannot quite pull off a younger Paul Goldschmidt, but who can?
All that promise was realized in 2021 as Guerrero finished as an AL MVP finalist at age 21. The baseball skills are off the charts, with his bat speed, plate coverage and plate discipline all being exceptional even to the relatively naked baseball eye. It shows up in his Statcast numbers, too. Guerrero landed in the top 3% of the league in avgEV, maxEV, Hard Hit% and xwOBA last season. What Guerrero is not is the world's greatest natural athlete, and that shows in the lack of stolen bases and middling defensive numbers even after a move across the diamond to first base. However, Guerrero did show more dedication to training and was noticeably slimmer for much of the 2021 season. As long as he takes care of his body, Guerrero can follow in his father's footsteps into the Hall of Fame one day. In the meantime, Guerrero should stand side by side with Juan Soto as one of the greatest pure hitters of this new generation.
Vladito came into spring training looking slimmer than how he had finished 2019 and many were excited enough to once again draft him in the top 50. Once the pandemic hit, Guerrero's conditioning evaporated and he showed up hefty in July and took a while to get going in 2020. His final numbers were pretty much in line with what he did in his rookie season, which was a disappointment given the high bar his talent sets for him. He has tremendous power and an excellent hit tool, but a 2:1 groundball-to-flyball ratio ultimately limited his power output. His average exit velocity is in the top 10% of the league in spite of his conditioning issues, so his path to a 25-plus homer season is rather easy to envision. Guerrero got working on his conditioning right as the season ended and dropped 32 pounds by early November with an eye on moving back to third base. He will likely be drafted in the top 50 again; maybe this time he produces like a top 50 pick.
Once he overcame a spring oblique injury, Guerrero arrived in Toronto in late April for one of the most anticipated debuts in recent memory. Given the hype that surrounded him as baseball's top prospect along with his exorbitant cost in fantasy drafts and auctions, it's not totally unfair to view Guerrero's first season as disappointing. Even so, the fact that he was an above-average hitter (105 wRC+) at 20 years old is reason enough to be bullish about his outlook moving forward. Guerrero may have set the wheels in motion for a breakout based on the adjustments he made in the second half, when he slashed .293/.349/.452 and enjoyed a stretch from late July to late August where he was one of the majors' top hitters. Despite not meeting the sky-high expectations as a rookie, Guerrero won't come at a discount in 2020, as his reputation as a generational hitter remains intact in the minds of many.
It has become an annual tradition for there to be a line in the sand, where fantasy analysts argue over whether the top prospect in baseball is worth his draft price. Of course, not all No. 1 prospects are created equal. In this case, the best hitting prospect in a generation is set to debut in mid-to-late April. He will be a second-round pick in some redraft leagues. Believers are paying up while doubters decry that anyone who pays that price is banking on the best-case scenario. It is widely accepted that Guerrero has an 80-grade hit tool. Scouts go years without bestowing that on a prospect, and some refuse to do so out of principle. He has at least 70-grade raw power, generating elite exit velocities in the Arizona Fall League. With all this in mind, nobody should be surprised if Guerrero hits well over .300 with 25-plus home runs in his MLB debut. He has a thick lower half and figures to eventually move off third base to first base or designated hitter.
An 18-year-old with future 70s and 80s on his hit and power tools (depending which scout you ask), Guerrero looks like a generational hitting talent. His accomplishments as the youngest player at Low-A and High-A rightfully inspire awe and hyperbole. Among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Guerrero’s 151 wRC+ ranked eighth in the Midwest League and his 179 wRC+ ranked first in the Florida State League. He walked significantly more than he struck out at both stops and appears to have experienced normal luck on balls in play. The more outlandish his assignment, the more productive Guerrero became. He will stick at third base for now, and while he could move to first base, an outfield corner or DH down the road, it has become clear that his bat will profile anywhere. He should finish his age-19 season at Triple-A, which could set him up to be next year’s Ronald Acuna, primed for a mid-April callup in 2019.
One may be tempted to say that Guerrero has impossibly large shoes to fill, but judging by the early returns at the ripe age of 17, the new "Junior" looks up to the task. He made it look easy at rookie-level Bluefield in 2016, posting a 122 wRC+, eight homers and a 33:35 BB:K in 276 plate appearances against competition that was on average more than three years older than him. Guerrero also showed an ability to handle right-handed pitching (.859 OPS), a necessity for any right-handed power bat. He may have to move from third base to first base or an outfield corner, but if he hits as expected, he will be a perennial early-round pick in fantasy, regardless of where he plays. He has a little speed at this stage but that is unlikely to be a big part of his game at maturity. While Guerrero is several years away from reaching the majors, he has all the makings of an impact fantasy option.
Few names are as synonymous with raw power as Vladimir Guerrero, so it’s no surprise that his 16-year-old son looks like quite the prospect. Signed in July of 2015 for $3.9 million, the teenager is a free-swinging power hitter that shares a number of other traits with his father. At the plate, despite being born in 1999, he has good hand-eye coordination and tremendous bat speed. He’s a poor runner, grading out as a 35 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he possesses less-than-ideal arm strength (unlike his father, who packed a Howitzer). While that’s not to say that he can’t develop into the player his father was, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Guerrero still has plenty of time to mature into a strong MLB contributor. He should start the season playing rookie ball, and while his dream of playing in the majors at 18 is highly unlikely to happen, he has the power to progress rapidly through the minor league ranks.
More Fantasy News
Receiving day off
1BToronto Blue Jays
June 12, 2024
Guerrero is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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Crushes seventh homer
1BToronto Blue Jays
June 7, 2024
Guerrero went 2-for-3 with a walk and a three-run home run in Thursday's win over the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Launches sixth homer
1BToronto Blue Jays
June 4, 2024
Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in Monday's loss to the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Draws first start at 3B since 2019
1BToronto Blue Jays
June 2, 2024
Guerrero will start at third base and bat third in Sunday's game against the Pirates.
ANALYSIS
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On base three times in loss
1BToronto Blue Jays
June 2, 2024
Guerrero went 2-for-3 with a walk, a run scored and a stolen base in Saturday's 8-1 loss to the Pirates.
ANALYSIS
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