2025 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions: Updated NFL MVP Race (Week 18)

The 2025 NFL MVP odds show this is a two-horse race. It's probably Matthew Stafford's award to lose at this point. But after a stellar Week 16 performance, Drake Maye is once again right on his heels. 

Below, I'll break down everything you need to know about the 2025 NFL MVP race, including the odds to win NFL MVP, the best NFL MVP bets to make, and a few long-shot plays to consider. Make sure you check out the current odds to win the Super Bowl as well. 

Current NFL MVP Odds Race: Week 18, 2025

The latest NFL Week 17 odds suggest this race could get even tighter this week. Below, I'll break down everything you need to know about the top contenders to win the award.

Note: All odds in table below were pulled from a variety of sportsbooks. They are the longest or "best" available odds as of the writing of this article. 

2025 NFL MVP Contenders 

Here are the top-three 2025 NFL MVP contenders according to the latest odds from top operators like BetMGM Sportsbook:

Matthew Stafford (-195)

At this point, it looks like the voters are going to reward Matthew Stafford. The 37-year-old has never won league MVP, and this is almost certainly his last shot. Statistically, it's hard to argue with his case. The only thing you can really hold against him is his supporting cast. That group is so good that it's fair to wonder if he's really the league's Most Valuable Player. But unless we get a dramatic shakeup over the last two weeks of the year, this is his year. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Best pocket-passing statistics in the league
• ✅ Excellent narrative – first MVP in 17th season is crowning achievement of HOF-level career
• ✅ 11-4 Rams still in contention for No. 1 seed in the NFC

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Will voters hold his tremendous supporting cast against him? 
• ❌ Brutal Week 13 loss to the Panthers, tossing two INTs

Drake Maye (+180) 

It only took the Patriots four seasons to find Tom Brady's successor. Drake Maye is third in EPA per play, fifth in success rate, and he leads the league with 9.4% completion percentage above expectation. His Patriots are fourth in EPA per play and seventh in PPG entirely because of Maye. He leads the league in total yards (4,336), accounting for nearly 80.0% of New England's yards this season. That's legitimate MVP-level play. 

For my money, Maye is the clear-cut MVP this season. Ian Hartitz regularly tracks the NFL's supporting cast rankings, which basically takes every aspect of a team into account outside of the QB. The Rams had the No. 1 supporting cast in the league, while the Patriots were down at 16th. And yet, Maye has the Pats at 12-3 – one game ahead of the Rams. Sure, the easy schedule has played a big part here, but without Maye this is a below-.500 team. With him, they might finish with the best record in the league. That sounds like an MVP to me. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Elite efficiency & statistical profile 
• ✅ Great narrative – leading underdog Patriots to 11-3 record (No. 1 in AFC East)
• ✅ Easy remaining schedule – should rack up easy wins & stats

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Needs a few big-time games to make up ground against Stafford, statistically
• ❌ Somehow still doesn't have one 300-yard passing performance
• ❌ Occasionally reckless play style makes him injury risk 

Josh Allen (+2500) 

If you want to understand Josh Allen's MVP case, put on his Week 11 tape. He threw for 317 yards with 3 touchdowns, adding 40 yards and three more touchdowns with his legs. If you want to know why he might not win the award, put on his Week 12 tape. Allen was sacked 8 times and turned it over twice while accounting for no TDs. 

Allen likely needs a massive statistical finish in order to justify winning back-to-back MVP awards. But those hopes all but ended after his Week-16 flop.

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ It's Josh Allen
• ✅ Terrible receiving corps – offense runs through Allen 

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ He just won last year – he'll need an insane finish to justify back-to-back wins
• ❌ Bills still trailing Maye's Patriots in AFC East

Best 2025 NFL MVP Bet

Now that you have all the context surrounding the 2025 NFL MVP odds, I'll give you my best bets. Here are my best 2025 NFL MVP bets to make heading into Week 18: 

Drake Maye (+180)

Drake Maye is the pick here by default. Outside of Maye and Stafford, there isn't really a third candidate who has a chance of winning. And at -195, the window to bet on Stafford shut a few weeks ago. 

Maye is available at almost 2-to-1 odds. I think he has a better chance to win this award than those odds suggest. He should be able to pad his stats against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins over the next two weeks. If he wins out, clinches the No. 1 seed, and closes the statistical gap between him and Stafford, Maye has a legit shot at winning the MVP in his first full season as a starter.

Current NFL MVP Predictions: Week 18

Each week, I'll update this section with my prediction to win the NFL MVP. This section will ignore the odds or value and just highlight who I think is most likely to win. Here's my latest NFL MVP prediction, as of Week 18. 

Matthew Stafford to Win NFL MVP

Personally, I think this award should go to Drake Maye. But the MVP comes down to what the voters think. And the voters tend to reward candidates like Stafford. 

He is checking all the boxes you need to win an MVP. His Rams look likely to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, he's leading the league in passing yards (4,179), and passing TDs (40), throwing eight more than anyone else. The voters tend to lean on traditional stats like yards, touchdowns, and wins, and no one can compete with his profile in those areas. 

• 🏆 Best Current NFL MVP Odds: -195 (FanDuel Sportsbook) 

Compare All NFL MVP Odds: Week 18

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