This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Big 12 conference tournament tips off on Tuesday, and I have you covered with predictions for three of the four games. Here are my best bets for the first round of the Big 12 tournament.
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Colorado 
vs. TCU 
These two teams ended the regular season in Boulder, with the Buffaloes stomping their way to a 20-point victory, 76-56. In breaking down this matchup, it's easy to see why.
First, TCU has been terrible offensively for most of the season. The Horned Frogs rank 199th in offensive efficiency and had the third-worst rating during the Big 12 conference season. They were particularly bad at shooting. They made just 47 percent of two-point attempts (second-worst) and 28 percent of three-point attempts (worst), yielding the worst effective field goal percentage in the league. They are also awful from the charity stripe, making 65 percent, 352nd in the nation, which is noteworthy because Colorado's worst defense trait is its penchant for fouling. The Buffaloes posted the worst free-throw attempt rate allowed during the Big 12 competition, but this is less of a problem if the opponent struggles to make its foul shots. Similarly, Colorado's best defensive trait is its effort on the glass, posting the second-highest rebounding percentage in the league. This is again significant because it negates TCU's best offensive skill, which is collecting offensive rebounds, ranking fifth in the conference.
The Horned Frogs are marginally better at the other end of the court, where they rank 11th in defensive efficiency among Big 12 teams. This is slightly better than the Buffloes' offense, which ranks 15th. Colorado has a terrible tendency of turning the ball over and is last in the Big 12, but it's effective when it doesn't make an error. The Buffaloes made 52 percent of two-point attempts against conference opponents, the fifth-highest mark in the Big 12. This strength is critical because TCU's biggest defensive weakness is in the paint, allowing conference opponents to score a league-worst 56 percent of two-point attempts. The problem is so severe that it also ranks last in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Horned Frogs are nearly just as bad in defensive rebounding percentage, ranking 12th, although they are skilled at causing turnovers, ranking sixth. The latter gives them their best chance at winning on Tuesday, but they still lost by 20 points at Colorado despite the Buffaloes giving the ball away on 14 occasions.
This game will likely be close throughout, but I believe Colorado's matchup advantages will tip the game in their favor. The Buffaloes had a lousy season, but they still defeated teams like Connecticut, Colorado State, and Baylor, showing they can play at a high level when they're firing on all cylinders. I'm taking Colorado in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado +1.5
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Arizona State 
vs. Kansas State 
The Sun Devils have been in a tailspin ever since the start of February, losing 10 of 11 games. Coincidentally, their only win in that span was a 10-point victory at Kansas State, although the victory came at a price. Arizona State lost Jayden Quaintance, the team's best rebounder, to an injury, and the team has been reeling ever since. For additional context, Quaintance was recently named the Big 12's All-Defensive and All-Freshman teams. He was the only Sun Devil to be named to an All-Big 12 team, so one could even argue he was the team's most valuable player. In any event, coach Hurley recently said that Quaintance is unlikely to be able to play in the Big 12 Tournament.
Even with Quaintance playing for most of the season, Arizona State finished with the worst defensive efficiency rating during the Big 12 conference season. The Sun Devils' defense ranked below league average in many key areas, and they were particularly bad on the glass, logging the second-worst defensive rebounding percentage. This is a severe issue, and it's one that Kansas State exploited last time they played each other as the Wildcats collected 17 offensive boards. Arizona State is noticeably poor in two other defensive areas, recording the fourth-worst effective field goal percentage allowed and the fourth-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed during league competition. Kansas State's offense wasn't great, ranking 12th in efficiency among Big 12 teams, although it still outranks Arizona State's defense in effective field goal percentage (eighth), turnover percentage (11th), rebounding (14th), and free-throw attempt rate (12th).
The Sun Devils have performed better at the other end of the court, recording the ninth-highest offensive rating during the Big 12 season. This is decent, though most of their success stems from their perimeter attack. They score 36 percent of their total points off three-pointers, the fourth-highest mark among Big 12 teams. They made 35 percent of them during the conference season, so this has kept them in games; but even still, their weaknesses have outweighed this helpful skill. Among Big 12 teams, Arizona State's offense ranks 10th in turnovers and 12th in two-point field goal percentage, and it had the second-worst offensive rebounding percentage. At the same time, Kansas State's defense has played at a relatively high level, posting the fifth-best defensive rating in the Big 12. The Wildcats have played well in most defensive areas during league competition, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage allowed, seventh in turnover percentage, and fifth in free-throw attempt rate. Perhaps most notably, they held Big 12 opponents to 30 percent on three-point attempts, the second-best mark in the league. If this perimeter defense can carry over into the conference tournament, then Arizona State won't have many scoring options.
Considering Arizona State's roster attrition and Kansas State's stout defense, I like the latter's odds of pulling away in the second half. I'm laying the points with the Wildcats.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kansas State -5.5
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UCF vs. Utah 
Both of these teams are similar in that they're better offensively than defensively, though the differences become glaring when we dig into the numbers.
Since the conference season started, UCF's defense has been close to the bottom of the league, recording the second-worst efficiency rating. It's also the second-worst at two-point defense, allowing Big 12 opponents to make 55 percent of shots inside the arc, and it has the worst defensive rebounding percentage in the league, two key categories where Utah happens to excel offensively. The Utes aren't the best at scoring points, ranking 10th in efficiency during the Big 12 conference season, but they are highly effective in the two areas where UCF is weakest. The first arguably demands the most attention, as Utah has the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage, and it's going against the weakest defensive rebounding team in the league. They enjoy a similar advantage, albeit not quite as large, when scoring from the paint, making 51 percent of two-point attempts against conference foes, the sixth-highest mark. The Utes also have an edge with their physicality, ranking third among Big 12 teams in free-throw attempt rate. UCF is eighth on defense in this same stat, giving the Utes one more potential advantage at this end of the court.
When playing in the other direction, UCF has performed much better, ranking eighth in offensive efficiency during the Big 12 conference season. That said, Utah's defense does some things well that might limit the Knights' scoring. First, the Utes are active on the glass, logging the sixth-highest defensive rebounding percentage in the Big 12, a significant strength because UCF ranks seventh in offensive rebounding, thereby countering an area that UCF often leans on. Utah is also great at defending in the paint, holding conference opponents to 49 percent, the fourth-best allowed.
These two teams only met one time this season, a 76-72 UCF victory in Orlando. Despite the four-point difference, the game went back-and-forth and was tied at 72 with 11 seconds remaining. The box score also reveals that Utah had an easier time from the field, making 65 percent of its 31 attempts inside the arc. Given Utah's strengths and the location of the rematch, I'm betting on revenge on Tuesday. I'm taking the Utes.
College Basketball Best Bet: Utah -1.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Colorado +1.5
- Kansas State -5.5
- Utah -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
