This article is part of our NCAA Championship Preview series.
Men's College Basketball National Championship Preview: Florida vs. Houston
No. 1 Florida Gators
Matchup Overview: It looked like we were heading towards the consensus national championship matchup in brackets, but Houston played spoiler by overcoming a seven-point deficit to Duke with just over two minutes to play to reach the title game for the first time in the Kelvin Sampson era. Florida has had to overcome deficits as well, having trailed by significant margins three times during their run. Two teams with identical records at 35-4, the Big 12 and SEC Tournament champions have been dominant all season long. We're set up for what's expected to be a tightly-contested matchup, as evidenced by Florida being a one-point favorite.
Strength: Walter Clayton. The senior point guard has elevated his game to another level since the beginning of the SEC Tournament, averaging 23.1 points over the eight-game stretch. He's been lights out from deep during it, making four threes per game at a 49.2 percent clip. Clayton has taken over with his team trailing in the second half in each of the last two games, going for at least 30 points in each. It's not going to get any easier Monday in facing the top team in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric in Houston, even if it's been better defending the paint than the perimeter. Teams tend to rely heavily on their stars when it matters the most, and having the ball primarily in Clayton's hands late in games is the reason the Gators are in the national championship.
Weakness: Creating Turnovers. It isn't easy to find something that Florida does poorly. After all, we're talking about a team that's won 11 games in a row, beaten six KenPom top-10 teams during that stretch and could go down as one of the greatest teams of all time if it wins this game. However, Florida ranks only 245th in turnovers with 11.1 per game, but the offense has been so efficient that it hasn't mattered. Houston isn't a team that turns it over much anyway, with L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp being particularly good in that regard. With that said, it certainly wouldn't hurt the Gators if it was able to take advantage the opportunities it gets for some easy transition points considering how good Houston is once it sets up its defense.
Intangibles: Sixth-man Thomas Haugh continues to be a spark off the bench, averaging 15 points and nine boards over the last three games. That's one of the many things that makes this Florida team tough is that it can hurt you in multiple ways, with a variety of players making an impact. 6-10 Rueben Chinyelu is a force on the glass and defensive end, and the Gators ability to get second-chance points (fifth in offensive rebound percentage) with its size in the frontcourt could certainly pose a problem for a Houston team that doesn't play anyone over 6-8.
Florida Will Win IF: It keeps Houston's role players in check. Cryer excelled in wins against Gonzaga and Duke and won't be an easy player for Florida to shut down, and I think that's okay if he gets his 25. The key will be prohibiting one of Houston's role players from providing a spark. Florida speeds you up too much and is too good offensively for this to turn into a 62-60 type game (like against Purdue) where it can rely on a couple of guys to get it to the finish line.
Prediction: Talk about a matchup between contrasting styles, as Houston's slow and defensive-minded approach meets a fast-paced Gators team that has been difficult for even the best defenses to slow down. Something will have to give in this one, and while Houston has been able to play games in the 60s in its last few matchups, this one has the making of a higher-scoring affair like we saw when Houston faced Gonzaga in the Round of 32. Although Houston was able to come out on top over Duke, the Cougars trailed throughout, and I don't think there's quite enough offensive firepower to keep up down the stretch. Florida 74, Houston 70.
--Written by Ryan Pohle
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No. 1 Houston Cougars
Matchup Overview: An epic Final Four has left us with a masterpiece of a matchup in Monday's championship game. Florida controlled the second half against Auburn, coming back from a nine-point deficit to reach its first title game since winning back-to-back championships in 2006 and 2007. Meanwhile, Houston earned its third-ever trip to the championship game by erasing a 14-point second-half deficit, outscoring the Blue Devils 15-3 during the final 2:05 to pull off the epic comeback. The Cougars are one win away from their first crown and are appearing in the final for the first time since making back-to-back trips in 1983-1984. Both teams have shown resilience, with each surviving two white-knucklers during the tournament to set up what should be a monumental matchup.
Strength: Defensive physicality. Houston is relentless on the defensive end, as was on full display when it held Duke to just one made field goal across the final 10.5 minutes during Saturday's win. Despite being undersized across its starting five, Houston excels in both quickness and physicality, making its opponents uncomfortable and out of sync on the offensive end. The Cougars also are among the nation's best at avoiding turnovers and forcing teams to play at their pace, mucking up the game in the process. Joseph Tugler is the best in the nation at defending the pick-and-roll due to his athleticism and instincts, while J'Wan Roberts and Ja'Vier Francis each provide a physical presence underneath that has helped Houston rank fifth in the country in two-point percentage allowed. The guards, led by starters Milos Uzan, L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp, also play a major role in this approach, unafraid to double-team while aggressively pressuring ball-handlers, forcing the ball out of their hands early in the offensive set and showing elite recovery skills in disrupting the rhythm and timing of their opponents.
Weakness: Two-point field-goal conversion. The Cougars are the ninth-most efficient offense in the country according to KenPom, but that is mainly due to their NCAA-best 39.9 percent shooting from downtown. However, they struggle on their shots from inside the arc, converting on just over 48 percent of their two-point field-goal attempts to rank 292nd in the nation. During Saturday's semifinal, Houston converted on 45.5 percent of its 22 shots from beyond the arc but shot just 13-for-39 (33 percent) on its two-point attempts. As aggressive as it is defensively, the offense is built on spacing, as Houston is simply not a team that attacks the rim. This not only explains their lower shooting percentage from close range but also leads to the Cougars attempting just 16.3 free throws per game, ranking 321st in the nation.
Intangibles: Mental Toughness. The Cougars are gritty and disciplined, rarely beating themselves. While their defense elicits chaos amongst their opponents, it's a controlled aggression on their end, as they are a team that communicates well, plays in sync on both ends and rarely turns the ball over. Yet even when not at their best, they are resilient enough to still find a way to win. Against Duke, Houston became the 336th team in tournament history to finish with a lower field-goal percentage, fewer assists, fewer steals, fewer free-throw attempts and more turnovers than their opponent. The Cougars were the first of those 336 teams to come out victorious.
Houston will win IF: It can control the tempo. These two teams are each within the top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency but are polar opposites in how they got there. The Gators are the third-highest scoring team in the country and want to get out and run, whereas the Cougars are looking to slow the pace. Florida point guard Walter Clayton has been sublime throughout the tournament at splitting the defense and creating open looks at the basket, whether in transition or in the half court. His pace has also garnered him open looks from downtown, and he's converted a ridiculous 49.2 percent of his three-point attempts since the start of the SEC tournament. Houston must make Florida play ugly and not allow Clayton to find or create open space.
Prediction: The only other time a Final Four featured all four one seeds, it led to a classic final between Memphis and Kansas in which the Jayhawks prevailed in overtime. Both Houston and Florida were left with less than 48 hours to prepare for their opponent, making past matchups key to their preparation. Florida will be able to call upon their seven clashes this season against top-10 defensive opponents, though Houston's specific brand of physicality makes it particularly tough to prepare for, especially considering the quick turnaround. Houston's preparation will likely focus on its recent matchup with Gonzaga, a team that featured a very similar offensive style and production level as Florida. While the Florida offense vs. Houston defense is such an intriguing contrast in styles, the matchup on the other side of the ball is strength-on-strength, with Houston's long-range efficiency going up against Florida's elite perimeter defense that ranks sixth nationally in defending the three ball. Houston arguably played the worst of all four teams Saturday and yet was still able to grind its way past an elite Duke squad. The Cougars' defense keeps them in every game, and their outside shooting led by the three guards is elite. This gives the Cougars an extra dimension than they've had in the past and allows them to compete even if the game is a bit faster paced than they'd like, such as it was against Gonzaga. Houston will play much better on Monday, with its physicality and mental toughness being enough to put it over the top. In the end, it will earn the school its first championship in what is shaping up to be an all-timer that may rival that Kansas vs. Memphis matchup from 2008. Houston 73 Florida 71.
-Written by Brian Williams
