ADP Analysis: Mispriced QBs to Target

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

When you're building your fantasy football roster, quarterback value matters. Every year, name-brand passers go early while others with similar upside get drafted a few rounds later. That creates a market — one where you can exploit mis-priced ADPs and stack value.

Let's dive into five quarterbacks whose ADPs might not line up with reality, now that the 2025 NFL Draft has reshuffled the deck. These aren't just "takes." These are data-driven reactions to evolving situations — exactly what fantasy managers should want.

Check out my full RotoWire article archive if you want more offseason breakdowns.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs 
ADP: QB6

Mahomes is still a great real-life quarterback, but Is he elite for fantasy? The name outweighs the numbers.

• Mahomes hasn't been a top-12 fantasy QB since mid-2023.
• He finished QB14 last year, posting career lows in yards per attempt in back-to-back seasons (7.0, 6.8).
• KC's offense is evolving, but this isn't the "bombs away" unit from 2018–2020.
• You'll hear about a revamped receiver room, but we've heard that story before.
• In 2025 redraft leagues, Mahomes is priced at his ceiling. He'll finish in a QB scoring cluster —just like the cheaper guys you can get later. 

Bo Nix, Broncos 
ADP: QB8 

Nix's ceiling is already baked in. Don't draft the rookie surprise like he's a sure thing.

• Nix impressed as a rookie with 3,775 yards and 29 passing TDs. Add 430 yards and four scores on the ground and you've got a dual-threat fantasy QB.
• But the Broncos' offseason tells a different story. They drafted RB RJ Harvey to give them the rushing attack they lacked in 2024. Denver should now have offensive balance.
• If Denver's defense improves, Nix may spend more time handing off late in games than airing it out.
• He's a solid starter, but QB8 is probably his ceiling. I'd rather draft a safer bet later or wait for his ADP to dip.

For more draft context, check the RotoWire PPR cheatsheet for QB tiers.

Caleb Williams, Bears 
ADP: QB10 

Williams is the bounce-back candidate. His rookie season was ugly, but context is everything.

• Rushed for 489 yards, so the fantasy scoring floor was decent, even during a rough rookie year.
• The Bears' O-line was a mess, and the scheme failed to maximize DJ Moore or Rome Odunze.
• Williams held the ball too long, but he also didn't have time or spacing to operate.
• Enter Ben Johnson. The man who made Jared Goff a fantasy staple.
• Chicago went all out to rebuild the offensive line.
• Add rookie playmakers Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, and suddenly this offense could fire on all cylinders.
• Don't be shocked if Williams finishes as a top-6 fantasy QB in 2025.

Jared Goff, Lions 
ADP: QB12 

Goff's draft position hides the risk. Is his Fantasy production tied to defensive injuries?

• Weeks 1–9 last season: Goff scored 16 or fewer fantasy points four times.
• Detroit leaned on the run while the defense was healthy. Fewer pass attempts were the norm.
• When injuries hit the D, Goff aired it out again — 30-plus pass attempts in nine of his last 10 games.
• Don't expect the Lions' defense to be ravaged by injury again. This unit is very good. Detroit should go back to being a run-first offense.
• If Goff falls to QB15, you can draft him as the safe half of a 2-QB rotation. Just don't expect weekly upside.

C.J. Stroud, Texans
ADP: QB17 

Stroud is a prime buy-low candidate. He struggled last year, but look closer.

• Stroud wasn't the same player in 2024, but Houston also made a strategic shift that didn't help him. As a result ...
• He saw more pressure, and defenses sat back in deep zones. That led to a dip in efficiency.
• OC Bobby Slowik is out. Nick Caley is in. He may not be a slam dunk, but the Texans clearly want more flexibility.
• Houston added Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to complement Nico Collins. That's a solid, varied receiver group.
• With Tank Dell likely out most of the year, there's room for these new weapons to make an immediate impact.
• Stroud showed elite talent as a rookie and is in a bounce-back spot. He has fringe top-5 upside, and at QB17, he's a steal.

Wrap-Up: Draft Smart, Not Just Safe

If you're treating quarterback like a plug-and-play position, you're missing value. Use ADP gaps to your advantage. Mahomes still has the name, but there's a strong case for drafting others ahead of him and using the savings elsewhere.

Guys like Caleb Williams and C.J. Stroud have paths to top-5 upside without the premium cost. Bo Nix and Jared Goff may give you value, but only at the right price.

Target the situation, not the name. And when it comes time to make weekly lineup decisions or track betting angles, the Rotowire NFL Picks app gives you another edge worth having.

Want more strategy like this? Explore my latest Rotowire articles and make your 2025 season your sharpest yet.