Jonnu Smith Traded to Steelers: What it Means for Fantasy Football

There was a rare NFL blockbuster trade Monday morning, with Pittsburgh sending S Minkah Fitzpatrick to Miami for TE Jonnu Smith and CB Jalen Ramsey. Draft picks also were exchanged, with Miami getting a 2027 fifth-rounder and Pittsburgh a 2027 seventh-rounder.

Fitzpatrick and Ramsey have been First-Team All-Pros three times each, but Smith is the one who matters for fantasy, after last year's career-high 88-884-8 receiving line. After showing flashes of receiving ability throughout a lengthy career, Smith blew up during his age-29 season to finish fourth among TEs in fantasy scoring. He was unhappy with his contract in Miami and is now signing a one-year, $12 million extension after the trade to Pittsburgh.

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What the Trade Means for Jonnu Smith

Smith will reunite with Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the head coach in Atlanta in 2023 when Jonnu's lone season with the Falcons featured career highs for targets (70), catches (50) and receiving yards (582). Those numbers, while solid, are a far cry from what Jonnu did in 2024 in Miami. The 2023 mini-breakout made Smith a bottom-end TE1 or solid TE2, not a player who returned any serious value (even relative to the extremely low acquisition cost). Last year, Smith added 41 more targets and ended up being one of fantasy's most valuable late-round picks.

Arthur Smith could craft an effective two-TE offense in Pittsburgh; there's just not much chance it will be a scheme that sends more than a handful of targets per game to Jonnu. Recall the aforementioned 2023 Atlanta offense. It had a league-high 35.1 percent of targets going to tight ends, but only seven teams threw fewer passes, and the TE production was split between Smith (better efficiency) and Kyle Pitts (53-667-3 on 90 targets). I'm not sure how Jonnu and Pat Freiermuth will split snaps/targets, but it's a safe bet they'll both play a lot, and WR DK Metcalf will draw more targets than both.

There may not be many targets to go around, at least beyond Metcalf, given that five of Arthur Smith's six NFL offenses to date (in PIT, ATL and TEN) finished 25th or lower in pass attempts. The Steelers were 29th last year, and fourth in rush attempts, but just 11th in rushing yards and t-19th in rushing touchdowns. They'll have a bunch of new faces this year, with Rodgers, Metcalf, Smith and Kaleb Johnson replacing Russell Wilson, George Pickens and Najee Harris. 

Pittsburgh's offense may improve, but probably not by a lot, and there's almost no chance of Jonnu Smith approaching his 2024 target volume from Miami.

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What it Means for Pittsburgh's Offense

Freiermuth's snap, route and target projections take a hit. Smith will get a lot of his work in multi-TE formations, but he's also a threat to play many/most of the snaps in 11 personnel, and the Steelers have 2023 third-round pick Darnell Washington as a third candidate for some snaps in two-TE sets.

There should be less impact for Metcalf, whose fantasy value largely comes from targets downfield and/or near the end zone. Smith has a career aDOT of just 5.2, with marks of 4.9 in 2024 (for Miami) and 6.5 in 2023 (for Atlanta). He earned 57.7 percent of his yardage after the catch in 2024, after 61.3 percent in 2023. Smith and Metcalf work different areas of the field, with Smith likely taking targets that might otherwise have gone to Freiermuth, RB Jaylen Warren or slot receiver Calvin Austin.

In terms of playing time (and thus targets), Austin also takes a hit here, with Smith's presence decreasing Pittsburgh's projection for use of 11 personnel. That's also suboptimal, to a lesser extent, for 2024 third-round pick Roman Wilson, who may push for perimeter snaps opposite Metcalf.

For Aaron Rodgers, it's aways good to have another weapon, but Smith's presence isn't a game changer for fantasy. Even if Rodgers improves his passing efficiency compared to what he did last year with the Jets, he's unlikely to have enough passing volume or rushing statistics to provide considerable value in single-QB leagues. 

For the running backs, this trade probably doesn't mean much, besides slightly lowering target projections because there's more competition for short passes and screens. Smith isn't known for his blocking, but he's not so bad that he'll ruin the running game, and he may not even end up on the field for most of the carries.

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What it Means for Miami's Offense

NFL.com's Tom Pelissero reports that the Dolphins are talking with other teams about trading for a tight end. If they don't end up acquiring anyone of note, Julian Hill and Pharaoh Brown are the veterans on the roster with significant experience. Both are primarily blockers. Hill has 15 career NFL starts and 18 catches. Brown has 54 starts and 72 receptions. If those are the tight ends, rather than Smith, then Miami's target shares for the other positions obviously rise.

That means small projections boosts for Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane, and also for backups Jaylen Wright, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Malik Washington. The fantasy winners are Hill and Waddle, with Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel perhaps looking to get back to the 2022-23 formula with more downfield passing and not many TE targets. If there are fewer TE snaps overall with Smith out of the picture, potential playing time beneficiaries are Westbrook-Ikhine, Washington and FB Alec Ingold. 

The problem here is that Smith's presence wasn't what stopped Miami from challenging defenses downfield in 2024 — he just helped the Dolphins get away with it, kind of. Throwing deep more often always sounds promising, but it won't work if Tua Tagovailoa can't stay healthy and the offensive line can't block for him. It also seemed like opponents did a better job defending coach Mike McDaniels' favorite concepts last year, and Tyreek Hill's wrist injury didn't help. 

Tagovailoa won't repeat last year's absurdly low 5.6 aDOT, but that doesn't mean he'll return to his 2022-23 level of producing big plays with deep and intermediate passes to Hill and Waddle. 

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Defensive/Salary Impact

The appeal for Pittsburgh is getting two good players in exchange for one. Ramsey won't necessarily be more valuable than Fitzpatrick, but Smith can help the Steelers offense a lot if he's taking snaps that otherwise might've gone to Darnell Washington, Calvin Austin, Robert Woods, etc.

Miami appears on the losing end talent-wise, with other reasons to make the trade. Fitzpatrick (28) is actually younger than both Smith (30 soon) and Ramsey (30), in addition to being cheaper than Ramsey. Of lesser importance, Miami upgrades from a seventh-round pick in 2027 to a fifth-rounder.

In Miami, the CB group now looks weak, but Fitzpatrick at least slides in as a strong replacement at safety for Jevon Holland (who signed with the Giants in March). This could end up being a loss for Miami's defense — given Ramsey's versatility and the relatively greater difficulty of finding CB help — but it probably won't be a disaster.

For Pittsburgh's defense, there are now six main candidates for snaps in nickel formations, with Ramsey joining CB Darius Slay, CB Joey Porter, nickel Beanie Bishop, S DeShon Elliott and S Juan Thornhill. The Steelers can test Ramsey as a perimeter corner, slot guardian or even as a pure safety. History suggests he'll hold up well anywhere they put him, even if he's not the same playmaking force he once was. Thornhill and Elliott aren't an impressive safety duo, but the front seven and cornerbacks look excellent, making Pittsburgh's defense a worthwhile late-round pick in fantasy drafts. The Steelers have a favorable early schedule, facing the Jets (W1), Seahawks (W2) and Patriots (W3).

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