Beating the Book: Full ATS Picks + Predictions for Every NFL Week 12 Game

Welcome to the NFL Week 12 edition of Beating the Book!

We're coming off of another positive week, going 9-5 ATS and pushing our season-long mark to 87-76-3. In terms of straight-up picks, it was not an impressive showing, however, hitting just eight of 14 games.

Nevertheless, we have some momentum as we head into a pivotal Week 12 in which six teams are on bye. Looking at the board, the week begins with a in-division matchup between the Browns and Steelers on Thursday Night Football. That's one of seven divisional games this week, many of which will carry major postseason implications.

As of publication, two games currently hold a double-digit spread, with the Chiefs and Commanders each sitting as 10.5-point favorites. The closest spread of the week is the Cardinals-Seahawks showdown in Seattle, while three other games currently sit at 3.0 or less.

One thing to keep an eye on: It's a big week for road favorites. Of our 14 games, eight favor the visiting team, led by KC (-10.5) and Detroit (-7.0), which are both laying at least a touchdown.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 10 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 11:

• Colts +4.0 at Jets: The Jets do not deserve to be more than a field-goal favorite against anyone right now.
• Broncos -2.5 vs. Falcons: I thought this would be a much closer game, but it turns out Atlanta completely no-showed and this was basically wrapped up by halftime.

Worst calls of Week 11:

• Packers -5.5 vs. Bears: While Green Bay's offense had its best YPP day of the season, the defense could not get off the field.
• Browns +1.0 at Saints: I wanted to fade the Saints off of the post-coach-firing-bounce game but failed to account for one man: Taysom Hill.

Last week: 9-5 ATS; 8-6 SU; best bet lost (Packers -5.5)

On the season: 87-76-3 ATS; 109-57 SU; 4-5-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Steelers -3.5

Total: 36.5

This is the second of four consecutive divisional games for Pittsburgh, which is coming off of its best win of the season at home against Baltimore last week. The Steelers' defense continues to get better and better on a weekly basis, and while Russell Wilson hasn't been lighting it up the last two weeks, the decision to transition to the veteran was clearly the right call. 

Meanwhile, Cleveland's defense was a trainwreck in Week 11, giving up 473 yards to the Saints, including nearly 200 total yards to Taysom Hill alone. New Orleans registered long touchdowns of 33, 71 and 75 yards. Offensively, Cleveland held its own – 443 total yards; 377 passing yards – but the Browns struggle to finish off drives and still cannot get any semblance of a consistent running game working on a weekly basis.

Pittsburgh could be due for a letdown after winning its last two games by a combined three points, but I trust the defense to force a turnover or two and take care of a Browns team that's scored more than 18 points one time in 10 games.

Obviously, we're dealing with a low total here, and the conditions project to be a significant factor. As of publication, here's what we're looking at in Cleveland on Thursday night. This is Steelers Weather™.

The pick: Steelers 20 – Browns 13

Sunday Early Slate

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Chiefs -10.5

Total: 43.5

This should be the bounceback of all bounceback spots for Kansas City after taking its first loss of the season, though the Panthers do have some momentum coming out of a bye on a two-game winning streak. Bryce Young is still Bryce Young, but he's playing with more confidence than earlier this season, and the Panthers have at least proven that they're no longer in a tier of their own at the bottom of the league.

With that said, beating the Saints and Giants only means so much, and this will obviously be a massive step up in competition. The Chiefs don't exactly run away from teams – even bad teams – but with Isiah Pacheco likely back in the mix, they should be able to ride the ground game to a comfortable victory.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Panthers 7

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Spread: Vikings -3.5

Total: 39.5

Last week, we wondered if there was such thing as a post-coordinator-firing bounce, and the Bears responded with easily their best offensive game in a month. While Chicago still found a way to lose in extremely Bears fashion, they out-gained Green Bay, ran 25 more plays, converted 9-of-16 third downs and won time-of-possession by nearly 14 minutes. 

The defense surrendered 8.5 yards per play, however, which is a concern against a Minnesota team that took care of business in Tennessee last week following a pair of turnover-filled wins over Indy and Jacksonville.

I do think Chicago turned a corner last week, and Caleb Williams clearly regained some confidence, but I also expect Minnesota's defense to do a much better job than Green Bay did of limiting long drives and keeping its offense off the field.

The Bears should be able to keep this game close, but I like Brian Flores' defense to fluster Williams and send Chicago to its fifth straight loss.

The pick: Vikings 21 – Bears 17

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -8.5

Total: 42.0

While the Titans have only two wins to their name, they continue to play competitive games on a week-to-week basis. The ground game has been very much it or miss, but Tennessee's passing game is starting to come around, and the Titans have only committed two turnovers in their last three games.

Houston, meanwhile, put a foreseeable beatdown on the lowly Cowboys on Monday night, racking up 34 points and 391 yards of total offense – its most in any game since Week 5, which was, of course, the last time Nico Collins played. Even on a limited snap count, Collins makes such an immense difference for this offense, and I expect him to be back in full capacity for Week 12.

The Houston defense is susceptible to giving up a few big plays per game, however, so I do think Tennessee has a chance to keep this game within a touchdown.

The pick: Texans 24 – Titans 17

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Lions -7.0

Total: 50.5

To say the Lions took care of business last week as nearly two-touchdown favorites would be an understatement. Detroit out-gained Jacksonville 645 to 170 yards – the third biggest differential in NFL history. The Lions also scored touchdowns on their first seven drives and could've continued to pile on had they not turned things over to Hendon Hooker for much of the fourth quarter. 

Before calling off the dogs, Detroit was up to 9.4 YPP before ultimately finishing at 8.5. A colossal beatdown, to say the least. Frankly, we should've seen this coming the moment Za'Darius Smith showed up in a Rasheed Wallace jersey.

All of that is to say, the Lions are the biggest wagon in the NFL right now and continue to demonstrate on a weekly basis that no team is as diverse and well-rounded. 

The other side of this matchup is much more interesting. After declaring Joe Flacco the starter for the rest of the season just two weeks ago, Indy suddenly pivoted back to Anthony Richardson ahead of Week 11. It proved to be the right call, as Richardson delivered easily his best game as a pro, completing 20-of-30 passes for 272 yards and a score, plus a pair of rushing touchdowns. Richardson did lose a fumble that led directly to a Jets touchdown early in the second half, but that was the lone major blemish on an otherwise impressive day.

What we need to keep in mind, however, is that the Colts faced the Jets last week – a defense that continues to get worse and worse, and an offense that gained nine yards on its first three drives last week and has failed to crack 300 yards in three straight games.

Richardson's signs of progress were extremely encouraging, but the Lions are not the team Indy wants to see right now as it looks to build some momentum.

The pick: Lions 34 – Colts 24

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -7.0

Total: 46.0

Coming off of wins over the Rams and Raiders, the Dolphins are back on track and officially hanging around the fringes of the AFC playoff race. They're not catching the Bills for the division, but the final Wild Card spot will be in reach if they can get hot down the stretch. Miami's passing game was back in full force against Vegas, though the Dolphins are yet to unlock Jaylen Waddle, who hasn't reached even nine PPR points in any game since Week 1.

The Dolphins' running game has also been an issue of late, as they've rushed for just 149 combined yards in the last two games. Really, it's been a problem all season, so I'll be interested to see if that continues this week against a Pats defense that's held up reasonably well against the run in recent weeks.

On the New England side, Drake Maye is noticeably improving with each passing week and is coming off of his most impressive game, to date, in my opinion. While Maye did take three sacks and throw a game-losing pick – eerily similar to the pick he tossed against Tennessee in Week 9 – he's clearly transformed a passing game that was beyond stuck in the mud with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.

Ultimately, I don't see the Dolphins dropping this game at home, but I expect new England to compete and keep this game within a touchdown.

The pick: Dolphins 27 – Patriots 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Spread: Bucs -5.5

Total: 41.5

While the Buccaneers emerge from the bye having dropped four in a row – and five of their last six – they're miraculously still very much alive in the NFC South, thanks to the Falcons blowing a golden opportunity to run away with the division. The Bucs have the second-softest remaining schedule in the NFL, with the Chargers (Week 15) standing as their only opponent with a winning record.

If the Bucs are going to climb their way back, it has to start with a win this week, and getting Mike Evans back from injury should be a major boost. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs' offense deserves a ton of credit for hanging around with Baltimore, Atlanta, Kansas City and San Francisco while down Evans and Chris Godwin, and an improved run game, led by Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, has been a welcomed development.

Still, the Bucs' defense continues to be a liability, giving up 23, 30, 31, 41, 27 and 36 points over the last six games. Ironically, the only two opponents Tampa has held under 20 points this season are the Lions (Week 2) and Eagles (Week 4) – two of the seven highest-scoring offenses in the NFL this season.

As the Giants pivot to Tommy DeVito, this should be a good spot for the Bucs' defense to clamp down and take advantage of inexperience and chaos factor. While the Daniel Jones experiment had clearly run its course, I'm not sure DeVito is a meaningfully better option.

The pick: Buccaneers 24 – Giants 17

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -10.5

Total: 44.5

After starting 7-2, the Commanders have taken back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Philly. They were out-gained in both losses, which marked Washington's two lowest offensive outputs of the season. While Jayden Daniels continues to play well, on balance, he hasn't been quite as dynamic as a rusher of late, and the Commanders have failed to crack 100 yards on the ground in each of the last two games.

Meanwhile, the defense has surrendered an averaging of 183.5 rushing yards per game over the last month. Normally, that would be a discouraging trend, but the Dak-less Cowboys should be a uniquely good matchup for Washington. As we've noted all season, Dallas can neither run the ball nor stop the run, and subbing in Cooper Rush for Dak Prescott has not helped matters.

Entering Week 12, Dallas is still holding down the worst run defense EPA in the league while ranking 28th rushing offense. So while the Commanders may have some cracks in the foundation, I'm not sure they're fully exploited this week. It's also worth noting that Washington's head coach was, of course, Dallas' defensive coordinator last season.

I like Dallas to hang around and make this a somewhat-competitive game, but the Commanders can win by two scores. 

The pick: Commanders 28 – Cowboys 17

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Broncos -5.5

Total: 41.5

We were on the Broncos to cover a low number at home last week, but we were not anticipating a complete no-show from the Falcons on both ends. Not only did Atlanta manage just 226 yards of offense, but the defense provided little to no resistance all afternoon, as Denver scored touchdowns on four of its first five drives. 

The Denver offense continues to pick up steam, and Bo Nix's 60-yard passing game against the Jets in Week 4 feels more and more likely a distant memory. Over the last three weeks, Denver has committed just one turnover, and the defense has solidified itself as a top-five unit against both the run and the pass.

It goes without saying that Vegas will have no chance to run the ball, so once again their chances to hang around will fall on the arm of Gardner Minshew – or perhaps more accurately, the hands of Brock Bowers, who's well on pace to have the best rookie tight end season in NFL history. 

Despite their obvious flaws, the Raiders have a way of hanging around in most games. I think they can do that here, but Denver's defense should be able to carry the Broncos to a comfortable win.

The pick: Broncos 24 – Raiders 14

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -2.5

Total: 47.5

In a week littered with road favorites, the Niners are slight dogs as they head to Lambeau Field for what suddenly feels like a must-win game. For the third time this season, the Niners found a way to lose a close divisional game in which it felt like they were in control until the final few possessions. The Niners remain an elite offense (6.4 YPP) and a top-10 defense, but untimely turnovers and red zone struggles have plagued this team all season.

The Packers escaped with a win last week in Chicago but failed to cover for the fourth consecutive game. Jordan Love turned in his usual devastating interception, and the Packers' defense looked completely unprepared for a Bears offense that had bottomed out in losses to Washington, Arizona and New England. Record-wise, 7-3 feels about right for Green Bay, but the Packers have not looked the part of a Super Bowl contender for most of the season.

We'll have to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week – particularly on the Niners side, as Brock Purdy, George Kittle and Nick Bosa are each banged up. The Packers are mostly healthy, though there's a decent chance the always-fragile Jaire Alexander could miss this game.

Neither team feels trustworthy right now, but the Niners need this game more, and I think they get it done on the road, assuming Purdy and Kittle are in.

The pick: 49ers 28 – Packers 27

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -1.0

Total: 47.5

All three of the remaining games could be our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week, but we're going with this one. As of publication, the Seahawks are slight home favorites at DraftKings, but Arizona is favored at BetMGM – essentially, this is a pick-the-winner game, and rightfully so.

Despite winning four in a row and holding SU victories over the Rams and Niners, there still seems to be some lingering skepticism about Arizona. The personnel may not be littered with stars, but the Cards' defense has shown some improvement in recent weeks, while the offense has put up 31, 29 and 28 points over the last three games. If the Cardinals can keep up the running game, which piled up 213 yards on Chicago and 181 on the Chargers, this is a game they can win on the road coming out of a bye.

On the other side, Seattle is among the most mistake-prone teams in the league but has the offensive firepower to hang around with just about anyone. More than anything, I like the O47.5 here, but we'll take the Seahawks to build on last week's road win and pull even with Arizona at 6-5 atop the NFC West.

The pick: Seahawks 28 – Cardinals 25

Sunday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Eagles -2.5

Total: 49.0

The first of two excellent primetime games brings us to SoFi, where the Rams will play their most important game of the season, to date. Philly is in great position atop the NFC East, but the Rams will need a win to keep pace in the stacked-up NFC West.

After falling flat against Miami in Week 11, the Rams bounced back last week at New England with their highest-yardage game of the season. Matthew Stafford was beyond dialed-in, delivering four touchdown passes, including two to Cooper Kupp.

Playing on Thursday night last week, the Eagles got off to their customary slow start (three points at halftime) before turning it on for a convincing win over Washington. Philly ranks 30th in the NFL in first-quarter scoring – the Rams are dead-last, by the way – but always seems to find a way to wear down opponents and ride Saquon Barkley in the second half.

While the Rams need this game more, I think we could see a familiar script play out where Philly struggles early on but hits a few big plays to pull away late. I lean pretty firmly toward the U50.5, as well.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Rams 24

Monday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Ravens -2.5

Total: 50.5

What a way to finish off the week. The Ravens ceded control of the AFC North to Pittsburgh last week and now find themselves sitting below the 7-3 chargers in the Wild Card standings. There's plenty of football to be played, of course, but this feels like a measuring stick game for both teams – especially Baltimore.

The common thread in all of the Ravens' losses this season has been a subpar running game. Last week, Baltimore ran for just 124 yards as a team, and Derrick Henry carried just 13 times for 65 yards. When the going gets tough, Baltimore tends to go away from Henry – not an advisable strategy, particularly when Lamar Jackson is struggling to the degree he was for much of last week.

I expect Baltimore to come into this game re-committed to the run, but my bigger concerns lie on the defensive side. The Ravens held up well last week, holding Pittsburgh without a touchdown, but the secondary has been torched all season, and Justin Herbert showed last week that he's more than capable of being the latest quarterback to shred that unit.

While we could see similar fireworks to Bengals-Chargers on Sunday, these are ultimately two teams that prefer to operate on the ground, so I would lean toward the U50.5. In what should be a fascinating coaching and QB matchup, we'll take the Ravens to win outright by a field goal.

The pick: Ravens 26 – Chargers 24