This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was solid - 12-4 ATS, 4-1 in the Supercontest, but I whiffed on my best bet, the Niners.
This week, I made my own lines again and stuck to my initial leans throughout the slate. Of course, I had to make some judgment calls on games where my line and the actual line matched.
Teams I like best are the Browns and Jaguars. As usual, I'll post my Supercontest picks in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Vikings +6.5 at Rams
This is exactly where I set the line. The Rams are missing their top two cover corners, but the front seven should get enough pressure on Kirk Cousins to mitigate that problem, the Vikings defense hasn't been itself through three games (something's going on with Everson Griffen) and I usually take the home team off a short week. The only thing that gives me pause is the Vikings should be focused off an all-time upset loss, but the Rams are like the Patriots - they don't trade margin of victory for clock until the very end of the game - and that makes them a good bet to cover every week until the lines adjust. Lay the wood.
Rams 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Dolphins +7 at Patriots
I made this line seven too. Maybe this is the year the Patriots crash to earth, but I wouldn't bet on it. The Dolphins are 3-0, but they've played the Titans, Jets and Raiders. Lay the wood as
Last week was solid - 12-4 ATS, 4-1 in the Supercontest, but I whiffed on my best bet, the Niners.
This week, I made my own lines again and stuck to my initial leans throughout the slate. Of course, I had to make some judgment calls on games where my line and the actual line matched.
Teams I like best are the Browns and Jaguars. As usual, I'll post my Supercontest picks in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Vikings +6.5 at Rams
This is exactly where I set the line. The Rams are missing their top two cover corners, but the front seven should get enough pressure on Kirk Cousins to mitigate that problem, the Vikings defense hasn't been itself through three games (something's going on with Everson Griffen) and I usually take the home team off a short week. The only thing that gives me pause is the Vikings should be focused off an all-time upset loss, but the Rams are like the Patriots - they don't trade margin of victory for clock until the very end of the game - and that makes them a good bet to cover every week until the lines adjust. Lay the wood.
Rams 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Dolphins +7 at Patriots
I made this line seven too. Maybe this is the year the Patriots crash to earth, but I wouldn't bet on it. The Dolphins are 3-0, but they've played the Titans, Jets and Raiders. Lay the wood as the Patriots bounce back big.
Patriots 31 - 20
Texans +1 at Colts
I usually like taking the desperate 0-3 team in these situations, but these are roughly equal teams, and the Texans are getting only one point on the road. Take the Colts.
Colts 20 - 17
Bengals +5.5 at Falcons
The Falcons are probably the better team, but I made this line 4.5 as the Bengals are solid defensively and should be able to move the ball. Take the points.
Falcons 24 - 20
Bills +10 at Packers
This is a tough game to handicap with Aaron Rodgers gimpy and the Bills coming off such a massive upset. I made the line 10.5, so I suppose I'm on the Packers, but I don't feel strongly about it.
Packers 28 - 17
Lions +3 at Cowboys
This line implies these are equal teams, but I'd rather have the one with a credible offense. Take the points.
Lions 24 - 20
Jets +7.5 at Jaguars
Another game where my line is the actual one. I'll buy low on the Jaguars off a bad loss. The defense should get to Sam Darnold and rattle him.
Jaguars 27 - 9
Buccaneers +3 at Bears
This was where I set the line. I'll take the points as I have no confidence in Mitchell Trubisky.
Bears 20 - 19
Eagles -4 at Titans
Assuming Marcus Mariota is playing again, this line is too steep. The Eagles are good, but have injuries on offense and haven't yet hit their stride. The Titans are ugly and boring, but they should keep it close. Take the home dog.
Eagles 19 - 17
LATE GAMES
Seahawks -3 at Cardinals
The Cardinals are bad, but the quarterback change could give them a lift, and their defense has been passable. I don't think the current version of the Seahawks should be laying a full field goal on the road here. Take the points.
Seahawks 17 - 16
Browns +2.5 at Raiders
I made this a pick 'em. Baker Mayfield looks like a star to me already, and the Cleveland defense is vastly improved. Take the points.
Browns 27 - 23
49ers +10.5 at Chargers
It's a big downgrade from Jimmy G to C.J. B, but not quite this big. The Chargers should win, but I'll take the better coached team with this many points.
Chargers 27 - 17
Saints -3.5 at Giants
Call me a homer, but the Giants found something in Houston last week, I think they'll be competitive going forward, and the Saints defense is suspect. Take the home dog.
Saints 31 - 30
SUNDAY NIGHT
Ravens +3 at Steelers
This is a coin flip, but I'll take the Steelers at home on a hunch.
Steelers 27 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Chiefs -4.5 at Broncos
The Chiefs have been great so far, but this strikes me as a big line on the road against a division rival. The Broncos aren't very good, but I'd expect this game to be competitive given the setup. Take the points.
Chiefs 24 - 23
Last week, I went 12-4 to put me at 28-18-2 on the year, lost my best bet, the 49ers (2-1 overall), and went 4-1 in the Supercontest (10-5). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.
