Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 5

I went 9-5-1 last week, about which I'd normally be happy, but I lost my best bet, the Browns, and that particular beat still has me on tilt three days later, in part because it knocked my Supercontest record from 4-1 to 3-2 (14-6 to 13-7.) I'm sure there are plenty of lucky wins along the way too, but somehow I never seem to remember them in detail.

Once again I made my own lines on Tuesday morning before looking at the actual ones this week. Unlike prior weeks, there was very little margin between mine and the real ones - I think the biggest disparity was 1.5 points.

As such, I'm not sure yet who I like best this week - I want to let it sit another 12-24 hours before choosing my Supercontest picks which I'll again post in the comments.

For the podcast version of this article, click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Colts +10 at Patriots

The Patriots are probably the sucker play after throttling the Dolphins last week, but the Colts just played a grueling overtime game, are likely missing T.Y. Hilton and have to travel on the short week. I set the line at 10.5, so I'm laying the wood.

Patriots 31 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Ravens -3 at Browns

This is where I set the line too, so it's a coin flip for me. The Browns are much better with Baker Mayfield under center, notwithstanding their giving last week's game away to the Raiders. I suppose I'll take the home dog to keep it close against a tough Ravens team. Take the points.

Ravens 20 - 19

Jaguars +3 at Chiefs

I also made this line three in what should be a good test for both teams. I think the Jaguars should move the ball against a soft Chiefs defense and largely keep up with their explosive offense. Take the points.

Chiefs 27 - 26

Titans -3.5 at Bills

Another game that matched my line exactly. Marcus Mariota seems to have turned a corner the last couple weeks, and the Titans defense has played well. The Bills are pretty bad, but they're at home, their defense isn't terrible and this could be a low-scoring game played close to the vest. I don't feel strongly about it, but I'll take the points.

Titans 19 - 16

Giants +7 at Panthers

Normally, I'd just take the Giants on the road getting a TD reflexively, but I made this line seven and a half, and I'll stick to my numbers. Eliability™ might be running out of leash if he doesn't play a lot better, and he's likely to be in big trouble against a stout Panthers rush. Lay the points.

Panthers 26 - 17

Broncos +1.5 at Jets

I made this line 2.5, so I'm on the Jets. I don't trust Sam Darnold at all, but Case Keenum isn't much better, and the Jets are at home. Lay the wood.

Jets 23 - 20

Falcons +3 at Steelers

The was obviously going to be the line, and it's the right one. The Falcons are the better team probably, but the Steelers typically (last week, notwithstanding) play better at home, and neither team can stop anyone right now. Another coin flip, but I'll take the points.

Steelers 33 - 31

Packers -1.5 at Lions

I had this game as a pick 'em, so I suppose I'm on the Lions. I still think Matthew Stafford is good, and Aaron Rodgers didn't seem like himself last week. Take the home dog.

Packers 31 - 30

Dolphins +6 at Bengals

The Dolphins should be a good "buy-low" after their drubbing at the Patriots' hands, but the line isn't quite generous enough (I needed to get 7.5.) Take the Bengals who might actually be a good team.

Bengals 27 - 20

LATE GAMES

Raiders +6 at Chargers

I made this line 5.5, and the more I think about it, the more I like the Raiders. They got lucky last week, but the Chargers were life and death at home against the Niners, and I expect the Raiders to keep pace at what's essentially a neutral site. Take the points.

Chargers 27 - 24

Cardinals +4 at 49ers

Josh Rosen gives the Cardinals a fighting chance, but the 49ers are the better team, even with C.J. Beathard under center, and they're playing at home. Lay the wood.

49ers 21 - 16

Vikings +3 at Eagles

The Vikings are a desperate animal after losing their last two games and coming off extra rest, but the Eagles are the better defense this year. With Carson Wentz three games in and Alshon Jeffery back, I expect them to handle things at home. Lay the wood.

Eagles 27 - 23

Rams -7 at Seahawks

This is an absolutely massive line in one of the league's toughest road venues, but I see the Rams as an unstoppable juggernaut, and I'm staying on them until the lines adjust even further. Unlike most teams, the Rams will not nurse a lead and kill clock - they keep scoring and keep covering. Lay the entire tree.

Rams 34 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Cowboys +3.5 at Texans

It sickens me to take the Cowboys, but it's hard to say the Texans are the better team, and Dallas is getting the hook. Take the points.

Texans 20 - 19

MONDAY NIGHT

Redskins +6.5 at Saints

I made this line seven, so I'm on the Saints. The Redskins might be decent, but New Orleans' defense showed up last week, and if that persists, they're one of the best teams in the league. Lay the wood.

Saints 30 - 23

For the podcast version of this article, click here.

Last week, I went 9-5-1 to put me at 37-23-3 on the year, lost my best bet, the Browns (2-2 overall), and went 3-2 in the Supercontest (13-7). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.