Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos for Week 8
A juggernaut Cowboys offense comes into the Mile High City to tangle with a Broncos team that still appears to be trying to find its footing on both sides of the ball.
With an intriguing interconference battle on tap, we break down odds and best bets for the late-afternoon clash.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Cowboys +160 (ESPN Bet) / Broncos -180 (DraftKings)
Point spread: Cowboys +3.5 (ESPN Bet) / Broncos -3.5 (BetMGM)
Totals: Over 50.5 points (DraftKings) / Under 51 points (BetMGM)
The spread for this game has seen some noteworthy narrowing from the pre-Week 7 line. Denver was a 4.5-point favorite midway through last week. But after the Broncos' scare against the Giants – at home no less – and Dallas' dismantling of the Commanders, the number was bet down to as low as 3 at one point and sits at -3.5 at most sportsbooks approximately 24 hours before kickoff.
In contrast, the total has been on a firm upward trajectory. It sat at 47.5 prior to Week 7 action, but it has ballooned to as much as 51 over the last week-plus, despite Denver allowing just 15.7 points per home game.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos Betting Picks
The Dak Prescott-led Cowboys offense has essentially been matchup/injury-proof following a so-so Week 1 against the Eagles. Dallas averages an NFC-high 31.7 points per game overall, although that number notably drops to a still-solid 24.5 when split out for road contests. The Cowboys have been able to run enough of a balanced attack to attain a No. 2 ranking in passing yards (268.4 YPG) and No. 14 slotting in rushing yards (122.1 RYPG).
As would be expected based on their lower scoring average on the road, their rankings in both of the just-cited categories outside of AT & T Stadium are also not nearly as impressive. That's what makes this projected total somewhat surprising, considering the Broncos' defense has also been mostly lights out at home, last week's Jaxson Dart-led Giants onslaught notwithstanding.
Dart brought a dimension that Prescott doesn't come close to matching; his mobility. While Prescott is far from a statue in the pocket, he's much more prone to work as a classic dropback passer. The Denver defense, which has already collected an NFL-high 34 sacks and boasts an NFL-high 12.6% adjusted sack rate, can hone in on that.
The Cowboys' offensive line has notably allowed the second-lowest adjusted sack rate (3.8%) in the NFL, so this is a strength-on-strength matchup. Nevertheless, Denver's pass rush is almost impossible to completely contain, and it's also worth noting the unit is also likely due to start benefitting in the form of some interceptions from that constant pressure the defensive front applies. The Broncos' secondary has only picked off two passes thus far this season.
Dallas does have CeeDee Lamb back in the fold, and it will be fascinating to watch the Lamb-George Pickens duo against Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss CB tandem. Javonte Williams will also look to extract revenge on his old squad while facing a defense surrendering just 3.95 yards per carry. Ultimately, I see this as a game that won't quite live up to the lofty number.
While the Under is my main bet, a three-leg SGP on FanDuel that gives Denver some points to work with and also banks on very achievable statistical benchmarks for J.K. Dobbins and Bo Nix against a defense that's surrendered 401.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play is also a consideration.
Cowboys vs. Broncos Best Bets:
- Under 51.0 points (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- SGP: Broncos Alt. Spread +2.5 and J.K. Dobbins 50+ rushing yards and Bo Nix 175+ passing yards (+112 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cowboys vs. Broncos Prediction
Broncos 24, Cowboys 20
Whenever the Broncos field a quality team, road games in Denver are one of the tougher endeavors in the NFL for the visitors. Dallas' offense is undeniably a top-five unit, but the combination of the setting and the Broncos' defense should be just enough for Sean Payton's squad to escape with a hard-fought victory.
