This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions 
: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for NFL Divisional Playoffs
Full disclosure to everyone reading this: yours truly is a lifelong Washington fan who is ridiculously excited for this game. This is exactly what my fellow die-hards hoped for when the poison that was Dan Snyder was finally extracted from the organization. No one could have scripted this more perfectly. Jayden Daniels is exactly what the franchise needed, and getting in this position in his first year is beyond any expectations. Yes, I still have RG3 flashbacks now and then, but I keep reminding myself "Snyder is gone.....Snyder is gone.....this is different!". All that said, fandom has no place in effective handicapping, so I will keep things neutral from that perspective. But still, HAIL!
Commanders @ Lions Betting Odds
Line: Commanders +9.5 (Bet MGM) / Lions -8.5 (ESPN BET)
Moneyline: Commanders +400 (Bet MGM) / Lions -470 (DraftKings)
Total: OVER 55.5 (FanDuel) / UNDER 55.5 (bet 365)
When Washington secured their place in this game last weekend, the line opened at 7.5 and quickly rose to 8.5 and got to 9.5 by Monday where it has stayed most of the week before settling back at 8.5 at some books this weekend. The bets/money split is as even as I've ever seen a game. As of Saturday morning, bets were an exact 50/50 split while the Commanders were getting 51% of the money to Detroit's 49%. Both teams are hot, both have been ATS money-makers all year, and both are fun stories to the general public, so none of that is really surprising. The total splits surprise me as only 51% of bets and 29% of the money is on the over. The books have done well on these high totals. Even with the money favoring the under, the number has not budged from the opener of 55.5.
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Commanders @ Lions Betting Picks
Everyone loves to talk about the two offenses, but I believe this game will be decided by which team can make the most stops. Detroit's injury woes have been well documented and, to their credit, they have shifted into hyper-mode on offense in an effort to simply outscore everyone. Washington's defense was in playoff mode during their six-game win streak, holding four of those teams to 20 points or less. Last week, the Commanders held the high-powered Bucs offense to 20 points. They also scored 23 points without a turnover or punt. They DOMINATED time of possession with long, methodical drives which is exactly what teams have to do to beat Detroit. No team has held the Motor City Kitties to under 30 points since the Bears took them to the brink on Thanksgiving. And Chicago did it with defense and long drives. There's no question, this is Washington's toughest task to date, but they are loose and playing with house money and those teams are dangerous. I'm not sure they have enough magic to pull off the outright upset, but the Commanders have played like a charmed team all year. At anything above 7, my Best Bet for this game is on the Commanders and the points. I would also have a look at the under as well.
Commanders @ Lions Best Bet: Commanders +9.5 (@ BetMGM)
Commanders @ Lions Prediction
The Lions win the toss, take the ball, and score immediately, making it look easy. Washington responds with a long drive that results in a FG and a 7-3 Lions lead into the second quarter. The teams exchange touchdowns in the second quarter before Zane Gonzales hits a long FG at the end of the half to head to halftime with Detroit up 14-13. The teams again exchange touchdowns in the third quarter as the Lions lead 21-20 heading into the fourth. The Commanders defense bone up, holding Detroit to a FG and a 24-20 lead. A long Washington drive results in a touchdown and their first lead of 27-24 late in the game, but the quick-strike Lions get into FG position and send the game into OT at 27. What happens from there is anyone's guess, but with our cover secured, we can collect our money, sit back, and enjoy the theater no matter the result.
