Box Score Breakdown: Snaps, Routes and Usage from the Divisional Round

Texans (14) at Chiefs (23) 

Texans Personnel: 11 - 57% / 12 - 5% / 21 - 20%

65 Plays — 41 DBs — 5.6 aDOT — 19-of-28 for 245 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 8 sacks, 5 scrambles

• RB Joe Mixon got only 52% of snaps but 21 of the 28 RB opportunities and scored Houston's only touchdown.
• WR Xavier Hutchinson got more playing time and took advantage, overcoming an early drop to catch four of six targets for 52 yards on 69% route share. That helps his case for a depth role next season.
  • WR John Methcie was still the No. 3 receiver, playing only in three-wide formations. He was second on the team with 78% route share but drew targets on just two of eight routes.

2025 ADP Estimates

1. WR Nico Collins: 9-15
2. RB Joe Mixon: 30-45
3. WR Stefon Diggs: 85-110
4. QB C.J. Stroud: 100-125
5. TE Dalton Schultz: 140-160
6. WR John Metchie: 160-190
7. RB Dameon Pierce: 180-210
8. WR Tank Dell: 190-220
9. TE Cade Stover: 220-260

Chiefs Personnel: 11 - 48% / 12 - 30% / 13 - 10%

50 Plays — 32 DBs — 6.1 aDOT — 16-of-25 for 177 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 4 scrambles

• RB Isiah Pacheco got three carries and one target on Kansas City's first five snaps. After that, he got just two more carries and no targets while Kareem Hunt took eight carries and one target for 46 yards and a TD.
  • Hunt finished with 49% snap share, well ahead of both Pacheco (31%) and passing-down specialist Samaje Perine (20%).
  • Pacheco clearly isn't his old self since returning from the leg injury, and it's a concern for his 2025 fantasy value even if he'll almost certainly be more explosive come September.
• WR Justin Watson got just four snaps and two routes, falling well behind not only Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins but also JuJu Smith-Schuster.
  • Smith-Schuster took six more snaps than Hopkins and ran two more routes. There's clearly no plan for Hopkins to be a full-time player, and not much chance he re-signs with the Chiefs for next season.
• WR Xavier Worthy led KC's skill-position players in snap share (82%) and route share (86%) while getting the second most targets (six) on an afternoon when he and Travis Kelce were the only Chiefs with more than 20 routes or three targets.
  • Kelce had 66% of the receiving yards and the lone receiving TD.
• WR Marquise Brown got two incomplete targets downfield on 20 routes, with his 65% snap share and 71% route share easily ranking second among the team's wide receivers.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Xavier Worthy, TE Travis Kelce

Stock ⬇️:   WR DeAndre Hopkins

  Texans Injuries 🚑: LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee)         

Commanders (45) at Lions (31) 

Commanders Personnel: 11 - 51% / 12 - 26% / 10 - 10%

73 Plays — 37 DBs — 5.6 aDOT — 22-of-31 for 299 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 6 scrambles

• RB Brian Robinson took 52% snap share and 15 of 29 RB opportunities, scoring a pair of TDs but running just five routes (16%).
  • Austin Ekeler ran 16 routes (52%) and took 10 touches for 88 yards.
  • Jeremy McNichols also played a decent bit, including in some two-RB sets, and scored a one-yard TD on one of his four carries. All three of Washington's rushing TDs were from 1 or 2 yards out.
• WR Dyami Brown had another huge game, leading the team in targets, catches, receiving yards and air yards while handling 82% snap share and 81% route share. 
  • He's made himself a lot of money, breaking out at the very end of his rookie contract after having just 784 receiving yards in 63 career regular-season games. 
• WR Olamide Zaccheaus left the game with a groin injury late in the second quarter but then returned in the middle of the third quarter. That's part of why his snap and route shares dropped into the 40s, but he also lost some snaps to Jamison Crowder before getting hurt.
• TE Zach Ertz scored his seventh TD in the past nine games and has at least four targets each of the past four weeks.

Lions Personnel: 11 - 77% / 12 - 18%

68 Plays — 46 DBs — 9.2 aDOT — 25-of-43 for 336 yards — 1 TD, 4 INTs, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

• RB David Montgomery took only 24% of snaps and seven of 32 RB opportunities in his first game back from a knee injury. He ran hard and broke some tackles but didn't look quick/explosive, and he barely played late in the game after the Lions fell way behind and had to throw a ton.
• Coach Dan Campbell said he doesn't expect either of his coordinators to be back next year, although the chances of Aaron Glenn returning seemingly rose with Saturday's poor performance by the defense. It's not Glenn's fault that he was unable to overcome such an absurd number of injuries, but NFL teams don't always think that way and can sometimes be more focused on results than process.
• WR Kalif Raymond returned from IR and split the No. 3 WR role with Tim Patrick, catching each of his three targets for 37 yards.

2025 ADP Estimates

1. RB Jahmyr Gibbs: 4-8
2. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: 9-15
3. WR Jameson Williams: 45-60
4. TE Sam LaPorta: 50-70
5. RB David Montgomery: 55-75
6. QB Jared Goff: 85-110

Stock ⬆️:   WR Dyami Brown, QB Jayden Daniels

Stock ⬇️:   QB Jared Goff

  Commanders Injuries 🚑: RG Sam Cosmi (ACL tear) 

  Lions Injuries 🚑: CB Amik Robertson (arm), S Ifeatu Melifonwu (hamstring)

Rams (22) at Eagles (28) 

Rams Personnel: 11 - 96% / 12 - 1%

70 Plays — 50 DBs — 9.7 aDOT — 26-of-44 for 324 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 5 sacks, 1 scramble

• After relying on multi-TE formations the week before, Los Angeles shifted back to 11 personnel on nearly every snap (96%) in Sunday's loss at Philadelphia. It mostly worked well, as the Rams scored 22 points and had 402 total yards despite playing in the slow and losing fumbles on back-to-back drives early in the fourth quarter.
  • Other than Washington, no team in the past few months has done a better job moving the ball against Philadelphia's excellent defense. Give Sean McVay credit for his fantastic work this season.
• RB Kyren Williams played every single snap and got all 21 RB opportunities, with backup Ronnie Rivers limited to special teams.
  • Williams mostly played well but then lost a fumble in the fourth quarter. It was his sixth fumble of the year, which seems like an awful lot for any running back, and especially for a guy who is valued for consistency rather than explosiveness.
• WR Cooper Kupp took 96% of snaps and drew seven targets, after getting 55% snap share and one target the week before. The additional playing time was due to the Rams using three-wide formations instead of multi-TE sets.
  • Puka Nacua, Tyler Higbee and Demarcus Robinson also topped 80% snap share, with McVay relying heavily on his top five skill-position players and barely using subs.
• Higbee's impressive postseason increases his chances of being back with the Rams next year. He has one year remaining on his contract, with a non-guaranteed $4.5 million base salary and a guaranteed $2 million roster bonus (he also has $1 million in per-game roster bonuses).
• Kupp has two years remaining on his contract, with his compensation for 2025 consisting of a $12.5 million base salary (non-guaranteed) and $7.5 million roster bonus (two-thirds guaranteed). The Rams would thus save $15 million by cutting him, and they'd add $15 million in 2025 cap space by declaring him as a post-June 1 release.
  • He won't necessarily be released, but it's much more likely than a trade.
• Robinson is 30 years old and scheduled for unrestricted free agency. The Rams may bring him back, but they'd be wise to also pursue an upgrade for the downfield-receiver role that he's filled the past two years.
  • WR Tutu Atwell also is scheduled for free agency. I'm not sure if he or Robinson will get starting opportunities elsewhere, but they'll at least have offers with some guaranteed money and a good shot at No. 4 WR roles.
• QB Matthew Stafford has two years remaining on his contract, with cap hits of $49.7 million in 2025 and $53.7 million in 2026. A lot of that comes from bonus money that's already been paid, so the Rams would only add $23 million in cap space from a release even if Stafford were designated as a post-June 1 cut. They'll likely ride it out with him for at least one more season, assuming he wants to play.

2025 ADP Estimates

1. WR Puka Nacua: 7-13
2. RB Kyren Williams: 20-32
3. WR Cooper Kupp: 75-100
4. RB Blake Corum: 90-120
5. TE Tyler Higbee: 140-170
6. QB Matthew Stafford: 150-180
7. WR Demarcus Robinson: 175-215
8. WR Jordan Whittington: 190-225
9. WR Tutu Atwell: 200-240

Eagles Personnel: 11 - 72% / 12 - 21%

61 Plays — 30 DBs — 6.1 aDOT — 15-of-20 for 128 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 7 sacks, 3 scrambles

• RB Saquon Barkley took 90% of snaps and 30 of 32 RB opportunities, with his two long TD runs accounting for about 40 percent of Philadelphia's total offense.
• QB Jalen Hurts took seven sacks on 30 dropbacks and didn't do much to help his team after a 44-yard TD run on the opening drive.
  • Hurts completed each of his 13 passes that wasn't to A.J. Brown but went just 2-for-7 on throws to Brown, who dropped a pair of passes.
• Barkley, Brown, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith rarely came off the field for a second straight week. The main difference from snap to snap was whether the Eagles had No. 3 receiver Jahan Dotson or No. 2 TE Grant Calcaterra on the field.

Stock ⬆️:   TE Tyler Higbee

Stock ⬇️:   RB Kyren Williams

  Rams Injuries 🚑: DT Braden Fiske (knee)  

  Eagles Injuries 🚑: QB Quinyon Mitchell (shoulder)

Ravens (25) at Bills (27) 

Ravens Personnel: 11 - 5% / 12 - 51% / 21 - 18% / 22 - 19%

57 Plays — 31 DBs — 9.7 aDOT — 18-of-25 for 254 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks, 4 scrambles

• It's not entirely John Harbaugh's fault the Ravens are chokers, but the Ravens will always be chokers as long as Harbaugh is their coach.
• TE Mark Andrews has one season and a non-guaranteed $11 million remaining on his contract, consisting of a $7 million base salary and a $4 million roster bonus (due on the fifth day of the league year). 
  • It's a decent deal for the Ravens relative to Andrews' regular-season production, but he turns 30 in September and just had one of the most memorably horrible performances in franchise history. He also has zero TDs in eight career playoff games, averaging 3.6 catches for 39.4 yards on 6.5 targets (54.7% catch rate). And this wasn't the first or second time that Andrews dropped a pass in a critical moment toward the end of the game. I've calmed down since Sunday night but would still prefer to never see Andrews in purple again. I do understand it's a tough decision and won't be mad if the Ravens keep him, whereas getting rid of Harbaugh should be an easy call.

2025 ADP Estimates

1. RB Derrick Henry: 13-22
2. QB Lamar Jackson: 25-40
3. WR Zay Flowers: 50-70
4. TE Mark Andrew: 70-95
5. TE Isaiah Likely: 100-125
6. WR Rashod Bateman: 100-125
7. RB Justice Hill: 130-155
8. RB Keaton Mitchell: 210-240

Bills Personnel: 11 - 70% / 12 - 2% / 6OL - 22%

59 Plays — 23 DBs — 5.7 aDOT — 16-of-22 for 127 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, 0 scrambles

• RB James Cook handled his usual role, with 54% snap share and 20 of 30 RB opportunities, although it was Ray Davis who punched in a short touchdown (right after Cook took carries on three consecutive plays beforehand and gained 18 yards to bring Buffalo down to the 1-yard line).
• WR Amari Cooper was fourth among Buffalo's WRs in snap share (32%) and third in route share (43%), playing ahead of only Curtis Samuel (31% snaps, 39% routes).
• WR Keon Coleman tied for the lead in snap share (66%) but got only 61% route share and one official target, whereas Khalil Shakir's 66% snap share yielded 74% route share and seven targets.
  • Coleman's main contribution was drawing a pass interference flag on a play where he shoved a well-positioned defender to the ground. I can understand a 'no call' because the defender also made a bit of contact, but calling it against the defense was horrific, and directly led to a swing of at least four points (probably more, considering Buffalo might have missed a long field goal and would've been leaving Baltimore time for a drive before the half). If only there were some way to quickly fix obvious officiating mistakes...
• TE Dalton Kincaid got only 51% snap share and 52% route share. His playing time and performance have not been encouraging this January. One of his two targets was a catchable pass that he failed to bring in while going to the ground.

Stock ⬆️:   TE Isaiah Likely  /   WR Khalil SHakir.

Stock ⬇️:   WR Amari Cooper, TE Dalton Kincaid

  Ravens Injuries 🚑: WR Rashod Bateman (undisclosed), TE Charlie Kolar (arm) 

  Bills Injuries 🚑: S Taylor Rapp (hip)