2023 Fantasy Football Rankings

Jefferson, Randy Moss and Odell Beckham are the only players to reach 4,000 receiving yards in their first three NFL seasons, and Jefferson is more than 650 yards clear of the other two after leading the NFL with 1,809 last year. The 22nd overall pick from the 2020 draft has neatly progressed from 1,400 to 1,600 to 1,800 yards each year while catching at least 64.7 percent of his targets for at least 9.7 YPT each season. Jefferson is only slightly above league average for WRs in terms of size (6-1, 195) and timed speed (4.43 40), but he's otherwise elite when it comes to route-running, ball skills and general feel for the game. He rapidly surpassed veteran Vikings wideout Adam Thielen, who was released this offseason and signed with Carolina. Thielen's departure might mean even more defensive attention on Jefferson, but it could also mean even more targets in a passing game that otherwise features first-round WR Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson and WR KJ Osborn. Boasting the highest non-injury floor of anyone in the player pool, Jefferson quickly emerged as the most popular No. 1 overall pick in early 2023 drafts. While one might argue there are a few running backs with more upside, we also have to consider that a 2,000-yard season is within Jefferson's range of possibilities.

From an efficiency standpoint, Chase took a big step back between Years 1 and 2, dropping from 11.4 YPT to 7.8 YPT even as the Cincinnati offense remained efficient overall. On the other hand, he drew six more targets in five fewer games, with his aDOT falling from 12.6 to 9.0 amidst a steady diet of screens and slants that wasn't there as a rookie. It was the type of usage that could lead to a 2021 Cooper Kupp-type season, even if it didn't work out that way last year due to a slow start and then a hip injury. The 2020 fifth overall pick has 4.34 speed that's evident on the field, and his upcoming age-23 season could be phenomenal if he combines the 2022 usage (11.2 targets per game) with something approaching the 2021 efficiency. College teammate Justin Jefferson is the smoother route-runner and has slightly less target competition with the Vikings lacking a bonafide No. 2 receiver like Cincinnati's Tee Higgins, but Chase is the superior athlete and works with a superior quarterback, giving him the same WR1 overall ceiling as his friendly rival in Minnesota.

Hill's first season outside the friendly confines of Kansas City ended with career highs for targets, catches and yards, with the former Chief catching 70 percent of his chances for 10.1 YPT even though starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa took only two-thirds of Miami's snaps. Talented teammate Jaylen Waddle also had a hugely efficient year, buoyed by the long-distance touchdowns that are Hill's trademark, but the fleet-footed veteran ultimately drew 53 more targets than his half-a-step-slower running mate. Perhaps that gap closes this year as Waddle enters Year 3, but even then it's not like the Dolphins have a dominant TE, pass-catching back or strong No. 3 receiver to siphon targets. They did add slot specialist Braxton Berrios this offseason, potentially a minor upgrade on last year's third receiver Trent Sherfield. On the other hand, Berrios might see more work on special teams than offense, and coach Mike McDaniel solidified his preference for blocking tight ends by replacing Mike Gesicki (Patriots) with former Broncos backup Eric Saubert. The only real concern for Hill is Tagovailoa's injury history, and that was already a problem last season without dragging the wideout's stats down.

Kelce’s name has become synonymous with consistent excellence. He reached 1,336 yards and double-digit touchdowns in three of the past five seasons, with receiving lines of 97-1,229-5 and 92-1,125-9 the other two years. Kelce’s the top target for the league’s best passer, Patrick Mahomes, and the 6-foot-5 tight end has shown no signs of slowing down at age 33,, suiting up for at least 15 regular-season games every season besides his 2013 rookie campaign. Last year he had career highs for targets (152) and touchdowns (12), led the NFL in red-zone targets (32) and had 424 more yards (1,338) than any other tight end. While Father Time is bound to catch up to Kelce eventually, he hasn’t given us much reason to think it will happen this year. The gap between Kelce and the rest of the pack at tight end is even larger in full-PPR formats, as his 507 catches over the past five seasons are second most among all players behind only Davante Adams' 532 , while another tight end doesn’t appear on that list until Zach Ertz with 361.

After consecutive injury-shortened seasons, McCaffrey's value was trending downward entering 2022, and to make matters worse he was stranded in the dysfunctional Carolina offense. By the end of the season, McCaffrey's durability and team concerns turned for the better, as he ended up playing 20 games (three in the playoffs) between Carolina and San Francisco. As great as McCaffrey's production was in his Carolina career, the Panthers offense would often work against him. With Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers it's the exact opposite -- for the first time in his career McCaffrey is playing on Easy Mode. His numbers were fine in the six games before the trade, but he was predictably more explosive with the 49ers, producing 984 yards and eight touchdowns rushing with 64 receptions for 525 yards and five touchdowns in 14 games. Even a calf injury in the playoffs couldn't slow McCaffrey down; he had 299 total yards and three TDs in three weeks and missed only one snap in the NFC Championship Game loss. He turns 27 in June, still has the injury history looming somewhat and figures to cede a portion of the carries to Elijah Mitchell, but if McCaffrey's health cooperates he'll have enough catches and TDs to challenge for overall RB1 status again.