QB Rankings

Mahomes entered last season with questions about how he would fare without speedster Tyreek Hill for the first time. All he did was finish QB1 in fantasy, claim another MVP, win another Super Bowl and prove he’s the best quarterback on the planet. How he did it, though, is the interesting part. Mahomes threw deep on a career-low 8.2 percent of his attempts, 24th in the league. Instead, he chewed up the intermediate field -- no quarterback had more attempts than Mahomes’ 173 in the range of 8-18 yards. That’s a logical strategy when you have the NFL’s best tight end in Travis Kelce. He and his teammates totaled a league-high 2,850 yards after the catch, 54.2 percent of Mahomes’ career-high 5,250 passing yards, giving him league’s second-highest YPA at 8.1. Mahomes also capitalized on a league-high 72 red-zone drives for 34 of his league-leading 41 TD passes. A slight regression there is possible, and JuJu Smith-Schuster (78 catches) is gone. But Marquez Valdes-Scantling is back as the deep threat, Kadarius Toney -- who joined K.C. midseason last year -- is likely to get more work, and the team drafted WR Rashee Rice in the second round. The offensive line is still solid, with Jawaan Taylor replacing Orlando Brown. And, of course, there’s Kelce, with whom Mahomes teamed for a 118.7 passer rating, the third highest by a QB-receiver tandem in the league (min. 75 targets). Throw in another 350 yards and a couple scores on the ground and Mahomes could be one of the few QBs to repeat as QB1.

Allen fell just short last year in his bid to three-peat as the top fantasy QB, finishing second with a remarkably similar season to the one before despite playing through an injury to his throwing elbow. He came within 124 passing yards, one TD pass and one rushing yard of matching his 2021 numbers (and, like in 2021, the Bills lost in the divisional playoffs). Allen attempted 79 fewer passes than he did the previous year, in part because he played 16 games instead of 17, making up for it by increasing his YPA from 6.8 to 7.6 (8th) while his average target depth jumped a full yard to 9.2 (3rd). Allen’s completion rate held steady at 63.3 percent, though it again was far off his impressive 2020 percentage (69.2). That works well enough when a QB gets healthy passing volume, completes passes downfield and adds elite rushing production. The only negative is a receiving corps that looks dicey behind standout WR Stefon Diggs. Gabe Davis disappointed last season, and while the team drafted Dalton Kincaid in the first round to join Dawson Knox, the learning curve for rookie tight ends is usually steep. In the backfield, Buffalo replaced Devin Singletary with Damien Harris, who has 105 fewer career catches and could take more of the goal-line carries. Nevertheless, Allen should again challenge for QB1 in fantasy thanks to his potentially league-leading combination of pass and rush attempts.

A MVP-caliber season and a run to the Super Bowl were perhaps surprising, but Hurts finishing as the No. 3 fantasy quarterback last year should not have been shocking. He made tremendous strides with his arm between Years 1 and 2 as a starter, and he'd always been a threat with his legs. A.J. Brown joined DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert to help Hurts become one of the NFL's best passers. He led the league in on-target percentage (80.5) and completion percentage (72.5) from the pocket and finished second in TD/INT ratio at 20/4. Overall, his completion rate increased by more than five points to 66.5 percent (it was 52.9 as a rookie in 2020), his six interceptions were second fewest among QBs with at least 350 attempts and he finished third in YPA (8.0). Hurts’ running game gives him a solid fantasy floor -- he led the league in designed runs by a quarterback last season and was fourth in scramble yards. While nearly 40 percent of those designed runs were QB sneaks, 14 came at the goal line, which helped him score 13 rushing TDs, second most in NFL history by a quarterback. It’s possible Hurts’ goal-line attempts regress, but the league decided against outlawing the Eagles’ infamous “tush push" and longer-distance scores are also in play after back-to-back seasons with more than 750 rushing yards. Given that rushing production, Hurts can challenge for QB1 status even if he isn't quite on Patrick Mahomes' level as a passer and isn't likely to match Josh Allen's total volume.

Jackson was limited to 12 games for the second consecutive season last year, his campaign cut short by a Week 13 knee injury. Prorating his 11 complete games to a full season would give him nearly 3,500 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, which combined with his elite rushing production would make for a huge fantasy season. And that was with his completion percentage (62.3) and YPA (6.9) declining to career lows as he was saddled with perhaps the league's worst wideout corps. The Ravens addressed it this offseason, first signing Odell Beckham, who missed all of last season recovering from an ACL tear, and then drafting Zay Flowers 22nd overall. A healthy season out of 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman, who was limited to six games last year because of a Lisfranc injury, would be just as important. Tight end Mark Andrews remains the best target in the offense, and fellow TE Isaiah Likely is also a receiving threat. Perhaps most important is a new scheme, swapping out Greg Roman's run-heavy offense for a more pass-centered offense under new OC Todd Monken. After much uncertainty about his future, Jackson signed a five-year deal with $135 million guaranteed at signing in May. He remains the best running QB in the league, with 1,000 yards a predictable target for a full season. If the passing game comes around, a top-5 fantasy QB season is virtually assured.

Burrow led the league in on-target percentage (76.7) for the second year in a row last season and finished second in completion percentage (68.3). Those marks were actually down a bit from the previous year, which is a bit surprising considering Burrow severely curtailed his downfield game. After throwing 20-plus yards on 12.5 percent of his attempts in 2021, Burrow went downfield only 7.5 percent of the time last season (30th). Instead, he went short, as his percentage of passes behind the line of scrimmage jumped to 19.6 percent. His counting stats, more or less, held steady, and he finished QB4 in fantasy with some help from five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow was still good at throwing deep -- he tied Geno Smith with the highest on-target rate on 20-plus yard attempts at 60.0 percent -- but his average target depth was just 7.5 yards (23rd). One apparent reason for the increase in dump-offs was a rebuilt offensive line that often did not live up to preseason hopes. However, the Bengals signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown this offseason, moving Jonah Williams to right tackle, which should help (provided Williams isn’t traded as he’s demanded). Burrow's top three wide receivers return, led by Ja'marr Chase, while Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Better efficiency can help Burrow stay in the top 5 of fantasy QBs even with some expected regression in his rushing TDs.