Run 'N' Shoot: Cam's the MVP

After months of looking like the AFC's best team, a shocking loss to Philly has the Patriots lined up to play in the wild-card round. In an AFC littered with quality teams -- the Steelers and Chiefs, two wild-card contenders, can certainly beat anyone -- avoiding that first-round game is enormously important for the Patriots, Broncos and Bengals. Knowing the Patriots would lose a three-team tiebreaker, which 10-2 team are you picking to get those coveted byes? Here are the remaining schedules:

NE: at Hou, Tenn, at NYJ, at Mia
Den: Oak, at Pitt, Cin, SD
Cincy: Pitt, at SF, at Den, Balt

Presuming Rob Gronkowski can get back soon, I still like the Patriots' chances best. As the only team that will be favored in all four games, they're most likely to run the table.

• 2015 Cam Newton reminds me of the UF version of Tim Tebow (no, not the NFL version, the UF version) ... it's not always pretty, but he's unstoppable on the ground in the red zone and always finds a way to win. While everyone laments Tom Brady's lack of weapons in the passing game, Newton keeps succeeding with Ted Ginn, Jerricho Cotchery and Philly Brown. I've gone from thinking Newton *is going to* win the MVP to thinking, gasp, maybe he *should* win. (Sorry, Brady, Gronk's absence shows you're not even the best player on your own team.)

• Seattle finally looks like a Super Bowl contender again, outscoring opponents 107-50 the last three weeks (corresponding, perhaps not coincidentally, with Thomas Rawls' insertion into the lineup). With Arizona three games up in the standings, though, Seattle is looking at a wild card. If the key question in the AFC playoff picture is which top teams get byes, the key in the NFC has to be which of the top two seeds avoids Seattle. Here's how the NFC playoffs will shake out:

1. Carolina
2. Arizona
3. Green Bay (or Minny)
4. NFC East Winner
5. Seattle
6. GB/Minny loser (though I don't discount the possibility of Minny falling apart in December, as its schedule is tough, including road games with AZ and GB ... then again, the 6-6 teams, TB and ATL, probably aren't good enough to catch up)

If Seattle beats whoever comes out of the NFC East in the WC round (seems likely, sorry Liss), that means Seattle will go to Carolina if the 3 seed beats the 6, but to Arizona if the 6 beats the 3. In other words, if the seeds hold form, Carolina could be 16-0 yet have to face Seattle -- a team everyone would agree is better than the 3 seed -- in the divisional round. The 3-6 winner probably isn't going anywhere, but the outcome of that game will shape the entire NFC playoffs.

• As you ponder the potential unfairness/randomness of the NFC playoffs, contemplate this: Wouldn't it make sense to let the top seed choose its opponent? Can you imagine an announcement where Ron Rivera has to choose to play the Packers instead of the Seahawks? The drama would be fun for both that round and the next one (especially if Carolina and Seattle both advanced), and it seems infinitely more fair.

• Is it crazy to call Seattle such a tough draw when the AFC may well see a team head into the wild-card round on a 10-game winning streak? The Chiefs have already won six straight and will be heavily favored each of the next four: SD, at Balt, Cle, Oak. Who's a tougher matchup, them or the Steelers? Either way, the AFC playoff teams will be much stronger, top to bottom, than those in the NFC. In fact, unless the Jets or one of the 6-6 teams make it, I can see any of the AFC playoff teams making the Super Bowl.

• If you could only watch one NFL team the rest of the season, your favorite team excluded, who would you choose? Pittsburgh, right? The offense is so much fun to watch, and the defense is bad enough that many games turn into shootouts. The fantasy goodness is off the charts, too, with arguably the top QB, RB and WR and a second top-10 WR. Looking forward a bit, I could see Ben, Le'Veon and Antonio each ranking first at their respective positions on 2016 preseason cheatsheets.

• Watching the mainstream media crucify Tom Coughlin for going for it on 4th-and-2, up 20-10, is absolutely maddening. Going for the kill-shot was the right call by any analytical measure. Yet the media employing hindsight bias and calling for Coughlin's job will ensure every head coach without the job security of Bill Belichick (every coach, basically) will kick in such situations. Considering Sunday was a historically bad day for NFL kickers, this is a maddening irony.

• When did Julio Jones turn into Julian Edelman? Julio's 8-93-0 line on Sunday doesn't look terrible, but it came on 17 targets against a bad Bucs defense playing without its top two D-linemen, including stud DT Gerald McCoy. After four TDs in his first three games, Julio has just two since, including none the last four games (despite an astounding 56 targets in that span). The lack of downfield playmaking is a red flag, one that's unlikely to change with Carolina on the schedule two of the next three weeks. I'd rather own Jeremy Maclin than Julio in 2015, see below, and considering his expected price tag, I doubt I'll own Julio in 2016.

• As the 49ers prepare to move on from Colin Kaepernick (the guy for whom they replaced him as a starter), Alex Smith is playing the best football of his career. Smith hasn't thrown an INT since Week 3, but he's always been good in that respect. What's impressed me recently is Smith's sudden willingness to throw downfield. Watch the tape -- dink and dunk Alex Smith is gone -- or just look at Jeremy Maclin's box score the last two weeks: 9-160-1, 9-95-2. With a soft schedule for the fantasy playoffs looming -- SD, at Balt, Cle - I'd rather own Maclin than Julio Jones or Demaryius Thomas.

• After missing the first six games on PUP, Brandon LaFell now has 25-369-0 on 56 targets. Truly atrocious. It speaks to the Patriots' lack of WR depth that he's still seeing the field.

• The Eagles got crushed in consecutive games, then win a game because of three return TDs -- a fluke by any measure -- and now they're favored over the Bills? In LeSean McCoy's return to Philly, a.k.a. #LeSeanMcCoyWeek? Puh-lease. What a joke. Sure, I'm a homer, fine, whatever. But Tyrod Taylor has 8.0 YPA, a 104.3 QB Rating and has more games with a rushing TD than an INT in his first year as a starter. With Philly coming off a fluke win, I'm doubling down this week.

•Chris Johnson out for the year and Andre Ellington is out with turf toe, so David Johnson is going to win an awful lot of championships for his fantasy owners. As the three-down, goal-line back for a high-scoring offense, he's 2014 C.J. Anderson.

• Here's my first look at Week 14 DraftKings prices -- as always, with an emphasis on the cheaper players:

QUARTERBACK

Jameis Winston vs. NO, $5,500: We all know the Saints D is bad, but how bad? They Saints are allowing a 116.6 QB Rating, which I don't even need to research to know would be an all-time NFL record. For some perspective, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have eclipsed this number just once in their Hall of Fame careers. In 2015, Andy Dalton leads the NFL with a 107.4 QB Rating. Hence, the 2015 Saints make every QB they face look nine points better than the NFL's best QB, and opposing QBs are better only when they're all-time greats playing in their career-best seasons. As if that weren't enough, Tampa's skill players are as healthy as they've been all year, and Jameis is just $500 over minimum salary. Don't over-think this; play Jameis in all formats.

Tyrod Taylor at Phi, $5,400: We can't all play Winston, and if everyone is buying into Narrative Street of #LeSeanMcCoyWeek, see below, then Tyrod is a fine pivot against a Philly D that has allowed 14 TDs to opposing QBs the last three weeks. Even in tough matchups -- KC, Hou the last two -- Tyrod has played well when Watkins and McCoy have been healthy.

RUNNING BACK

LeSean McCoy at Phi, $6,100: After starting the year with a nagging hamstring injury, McCoy now has five consecutive games with more than 100 scrimmage yards. Karlos Williams sat Week 13 and looks likely to sit again, but even if he plays, Rex Ryan is going to give McCoy plenty of chances to succeed in his return to Philly (remember, Rex makes players a team captain against their former teams, and Charles Clay exploded in his first game against Miami). This is #LeSeanMcCoyWeek, folks. Cue him up in cash and GPPs.

Shaun Draughn vs. Cle, $4,800: Draughn's price has finally increased, but not enough to account for him being a three-down back against one of the NFL's worst run defenses. Draughn might lack the upside you want to win a big tournament, but he's certainly viable in cash.

Giovani Bernard vs. Pitt, $4,100: Gio is part of a dreaded timeshare, but against a Steelers defense that is much better against the run than the pass, in a game that could turn into a shootout, I like this price for DK's full PPR format. I'll have Gio in a bunch of GPPs this week.

WIDE RECEIVER

Martavis Bryant at Cin, $5,700: A cheaper way to get exposure to the Steelers than Antonio Brown, yet Bryant's ceiling for any particular game isn't that much lower.

Donte Moncrief vs. Jags, $4,600: The Jaguars entered Week 13 as a top-2 defense against the run. That long Mariota run may now skew the stats a bit, but make no mistake -- this is a defense that's weakness is via the air. Moncrief posted a dud on Sunday night, but he's likely to be a low-owned option in a good matchup, and he managed 8-113-0 in Week 12.

Vincent Jackson vs. NO, $4,500: It's hard to understand why Jackson's price decreased heading into a dream matchup with the Saints. He's too hit-or-miss for cash, but this is a great GPP flier for a fraction of Mike Evans' price.

DeVante Parker vs. NYG, $4,000: The Giants have been getting killed through the air in recent weeks, and Parker has scored in consecutive games since Rishard Matthews broke his ribs. I'd even consider Ryan Tannehill, gulp, in big tournaments.

TIGHT END

Scott Chandler at Hou, $3,800: So long as Gronk is out, Chandler is a solid bet for another 6-7 targets, a solid figure for this price. I'm not excited about the matchup, but the Delanie Walkers of the world have become more expensive.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs. NO, $2,700: ASJ's Week 13 boxscore doesn't really matter to me; it was his first game back after several weeks off, and he made it through the game without reinjuring his shoulder. That's more than enough for me to cue him up at a bargain basement price in the best matchup fantasy has to offer.