This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
CHRISTMAS DAY
Kansas City at Pittsburgh (+2.5), o/u 44.0
Wednesday, 1 p.m. EST
After taking care of business against the Texans last week, Kansas City needs one more win, or a Bills loss, to clinch the top seed in the AFC and another first-round bye. Ho hum. Patrick Mahomes was supposed to be dealing with a bad ankle last week, but as he always seems to do under such circumstances, he ran for a TD just to prove he could. Hollywood Brown also made his 2024 debut and looked pretty good, but it's rookie Xavier Worthy that's been the most reliable producer in the offense lately — the first-round speedster has seen double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks along with consistent carries, and he's turned the volume into 199 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. DC Steve Spagnuolo's unit has held four consecutive opponents to less than 20 points, racking up nine takeaways during that stretch, but most of those came courtesy of Jameis Winston, so that might be tough to count on against QBs who don't think ball security has something to do with Deflategate.
Based on the last two weeks, the Steelers' MVP would seem to be George Pickens. Without the wideout in the lineup against real competition in Philly and Baltimore, Pittsburgh managed just 30 total points and 478 total yards of offense while losing both games. That's dropped the Steelers into a tie with the Ravens for the top spot in
CHRISTMAS DAY
Kansas City at Pittsburgh (+2.5), o/u 44.0
Wednesday, 1 p.m. EST
After taking care of business against the Texans last week, Kansas City needs one more win, or a Bills loss, to clinch the top seed in the AFC and another first-round bye. Ho hum. Patrick Mahomes was supposed to be dealing with a bad ankle last week, but as he always seems to do under such circumstances, he ran for a TD just to prove he could. Hollywood Brown also made his 2024 debut and looked pretty good, but it's rookie Xavier Worthy that's been the most reliable producer in the offense lately — the first-round speedster has seen double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks along with consistent carries, and he's turned the volume into 199 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. DC Steve Spagnuolo's unit has held four consecutive opponents to less than 20 points, racking up nine takeaways during that stretch, but most of those came courtesy of Jameis Winston, so that might be tough to count on against QBs who don't think ball security has something to do with Deflategate.
Based on the last two weeks, the Steelers' MVP would seem to be George Pickens. Without the wideout in the lineup against real competition in Philly and Baltimore, Pittsburgh managed just 30 total points and 478 total yards of offense while losing both games. That's dropped the Steelers into a tie with the Ravens for the top spot in the AFC North, though they still (probably) hold the tiebreaker. There's also a real chance those two teams meet for a third time in the wild-card round no matter who takes the division crown. In three games without Pickens, Russell Wilson's managed a 63.0 percent completion rate and 6.2 YPA — in his last three games with Pickens to throw to, he's got a 71.6 percent completion rate and 8.7 YPA. Fortunately, Pickens' return this week from his hamstring injury will be a nice Christmas present for Russ. Pittsburgh's defense also has yet to give up more than 20 points to a team at home this season and has generated multiple takeaways in five consecutive games at Acrisure Stadium, though the only dangerous opponent they've had in that stretch was Baltimore.
Key Info
KC injuries: DT Chris Jones (questionable, calf)
PIT injuries: WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee), CB Joey Porter (out, knee)
DFS Lineup Optimizer
KC DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: none
KC DFS fades: DeAndre Hopkins
PIT DFS fades: Jaylen Warren
Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s, 1-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Isiah Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 230 yards and a TD to Worthy. Najee Harris manages 60 yards. Wilson throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, and Cordarrelle Patterson kickoff return for a touchdown ends up being the difference. Steelers 24-23
Baltimore at Houston (+5.5), o/u 46.5
Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. EST
Consecutive wins since their bye have put the Ravens into a tie with the Steelers in the race for the AFC North title, but Pittsburgh's got the tiebreaker edge except in the very specific scenario where it loses to Cincinnati in Week 18 while Baltimore takes down Cleveland. Of course, if the Ravens simply finish with a better record than the Steelers — something that could be handed to them on a platter earlier in the afternoon Wednesday — none of that's even necessary. Derrick Henry got rolling again last week with 162 rushing yards, and he needs 364 more for 2,000 this season. Hey, you tell him he can't get there. Lamar Jackson's also thrown multiple TDs in four consecutive games, posting a 70.8 percent completion rate, 8.6 YPA and 12:1 TD:INT in that stretch. Even though the media's already basically anointed Josh Allen as the MVP, Jackson's about to post his first 4,000-yard, 40-TD campaign, and he leads the NFL in YPA and QB rating.
The Texans are just trying to get through the last two weeks of the regular season at this point. It feels like they locked up the AFC South sometime in October, but last week's loss to Kansas City also saw Tank Dell suffer another season-ending injury, this one a dislocated kneecap and torn ACL. That leaves C.J. Stroud with Nico Collins to throw to, and that's about it — Houston's so desperate for wideout depth, they claimed Diontae Johnson off waivers. (Had Baltimore ever let him look at a playbook, maybe he could provide some sneaky info for this game.) The Texans' defense has been the engine of the squad this season, and it's the only unit that ranks in the top three in both takeaways and sacks. This game could end up being decided by which pass rush makes the bigger impact — the Ravens are second in sacks, one ahead of the Texans, but C.J. Stroud has been sacked more times (47) than anyone but Caleb Williams, while Lamar Jackson is in 25th and has been brought down only 22 times.
Key Info
BAL injuries: RB Justice Hill (out, concussion), WR Zay Flowers (questionable, shoulder), WR Nelson Agholor (out, concussion)
HOU injuries: WR Tank Dell (IR, knee), EDGE Denico Autry (questionable, knee), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (out, suspension), S Jalen Pitre (IR, pectoral)
DFS Lineup Optimizer
BAL DFS targets: Ravens DST
HOU DFS targets: Nico Collins
BAL DFS fades: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely
HOU DFS fades: John Metchie
Weather notes: indoors
The Scoop
Henry rumbles for 140 yards and two TDs. Jackson throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Flowers and Rashod Bateman. Joe Mixon gets held to 60 yards. Stroud throws for 270 yards and three scores, two to Collins (who tops 100 yards) and one to Dalton Schultz, but he gets sacked four times. Ravens 28-24
THURSDAY
Seattle at Chicago (+3.5), o/u 43.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST
After losing consecutive home games to NFC North opponents, the Seahawks might actually be looking forward to a trip to Chicago in late December. The losses have them second in the NFC West, one game back of the Rams, and Seattle really kind of needs them to lose to the Cards this week the way the tiebreakers fall. The Hawks also have no chance at wild card, so the division title is their only route. Geno Smith had to sling it a bunch again last week instead of leaning on his running game, attempting more than 40 passes for the first time since Week 6 and throwing for more than 300 yards and three TDs for the first time since Week 9, but he also threw multiple picks for the first time since Week 9. All those games were losses, and there's a reason why it's Plan B for OC Ryan Grubb. Unfortunately, with both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet banged up, the team's choices could end up being limited. The defense has been quietly stingy — the Bills were the last team to top 400 yards against them back in Week 8 — but the erratic offense has put a lot of pressure on the unit the last couple weeks.
The Bears are the only team in action in an early game with nothing to play for but draft position. Chicago's lost nine straight, second-longest skid in the league behind the Giants, and things don't seem to be getting better for poor Caleb Williams. He's been sacked a painful 60 times — no other QB has even taken 50 — and repairing the offensive line has to be the first priority for whoever replaces Ryan Poles as GM. I'm assuming he gets shown the door, anyway, as Matt Eberflus was his guy. The thing is, Williams is actually playing really well while running for his life. Over the last five games, the rookie QB has a 62.8 percent completion rate, 7.0 YPA and somehow a 10:0 TD:INT. OK, he's lost a fumble in three straight games, but who can blame him? Those games have also come against Minnesota and Detroit twice each, plus San Francisco when the Niners still had hope. The defense hasn't been giving Williams much help either, but again, that recent schedule has been brutal. Against a merely pretty good team as opposed to one of the NFL's elite, maybe it can keep things within striking distance for Williams.
Key Info
SEA injuries: RB Kenneth Walker (questionable, ankle), RB Zach Charbonnet (questionable, elbow), TE Noah Fant (questionable, knee), EDGE Derick Hall (questionable, shoulder)
CHI injuries: S Jaquan Brisker (IR, concussion)
DFS Lineup Optimizer
SEA DFS targets: Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet, DK Metcalf, Seahawks DST
CHI DFS targets: none
SEA DFS fades: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett
CHI DFS fades: none
Weather notes: 40-60 percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Charbonnet leads the SEA backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Smith throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Metcalf and AJ Barner. D'Andre Swift leads the CHI backfield with 50 yards. Williams throws for under 200 yards but does find DJ Moore and Rome Odunze for TDs, but his attempt at a late comeback ends with a Julian Love INT. Seahawks 21-17
Last week's record: 11-5, 7-8-1 ATS, 11-5 o/u
2024 record: 161-79, 126-111-3 ATS, 129-110-1 o/u
