This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL Odds and Key Line Moves for Divisional Round Playoff Weekend
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
NFL Divisional Round Weekend Odds
Divisional Round Weekend Schedule
Saturday, Jan. 12
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 O/U 42.5 (Chiefs -8.5 O/U 42.5)
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions -8.5 O/U 55.5 (Lions -9.5 O/U 55.5)
Sunday, Jan. 19
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills -1.5 O/U 51.5 (Ravens -1.5 O/U 51.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles -6.0 O/U 44.5 (Eagles -6.0 O/U 43.5)
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Houston Texans 
at Kansas City Chiefs 
The Chiefs opened as -8.5 point home favorites and money came in on the Texans, pushing it down to -7.5. As of Tuesday afternoon, the number is back up to Chiefs -8.5. This game already has some wide spread options with Houston as high as +9.5 and the Chiefs as low as -7.5.
Bettors can tease the Texans up to +14.5 at with the 8.5 price, so that is likely why so much money came in and moved the line. With it at -7.5 (+13.5), it should stay there or maybe even dip to -7.0 now.
The total opened 42.5 and also was immediately bet down to 41.5 and went back up to 42.5. 41 is a key number in Over/Unders and is within range of recent Chiefs totals.
The Chiefs and Lions (next game) will be very popular moneyline (parlay) and 6 point teaser picks as you can potentially "tease" them both down to under a field goal.
Trends
- The Chiefs are 8-0 SU but 3-5 ATS at home this season
- The Chiefs are 14-6 to the UNDER in their last 20 home games
- Houston is 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs
- KC beat Houston 27-19 in Week 16
- The average score in the last 10 Chiefs home games has been 24-17 with an average line of -6.4 and total of 44
Key Injuries
Texans - WR Tank Dell (O), WR Stefon Diggs (O), RG Shaq Mason (O)
Chiefs - QB Patrick Mahomes (Q), DT Chris Jones (Q), CB Trent McDuffie (Q)
Weather - 28 degrees with 4 percent chance of precipitation
Washington Commanders 
at Detroit Lions 
The Lions opened as -8.5 point home favorites and saw their line go up on Monday to -9.5. This would assume that the Lions were being teased down heavily to -2.5 points and now would only get to -3.5 at the current number. Some books have the Commanders as high as +10.0 and the Lions as low as -8.5.
The total opened at 55.5 and has remained there. We could see this number dip 1-2 points as the Commanders/Bucs game ended with 43 points scored vs. a 52.5 point betting total.
Trends
- Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- Detroit is 8-2 and and 16-4 SU at home as favorites
- Detroit is 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS in their last 8 as home favorites of 7 or more points
- The average score in the last Lions 20 home games is 33-21
Key Injuries
Commanders - DT Daron Payne (Q), TE Ben Sinnott (Q)
Lions - RB David Montgomery (Q), G Kevin Zeitler (Q), CB Terrion Arnold (Q)
Weather - Indoors
Baltimore Ravens 
at Buffalo Bills 
The biggest line move of the weekend so far has the Ravens now -1.5 point road favorites after the Bills opened -1.5 home favorites. The Ravens are +0.5 at some sportsbooks. Much of the action is based on the Ravens huge 35-10 win over the Bills on September 29th. It seems unfathomable that the Bills are home dogs for the first time since January 2021 given their home record over the last 5 seasons.
The total opened at 51.5 and has remained. Much of this could be related to the forthcoming weather report.
Trends
- Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
- Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The Bills are 9-1, 17-3, and 25-5 SU in their last 10/20/30 home games
- The average score in the last 30 Bills home games is 30-18 (33-17 last 10)
- Buffalo is 7-3 to the OVER in their last 10 games
- The last time the Bills were home underdogs was 1/3/21 against the Dolphins
Key Injuries
Ravens - WR Zay Flowers (Q)
Bills - RB Ray Davis (O)
Weather - 20 degrees with 33 percent chance of precipitation
Los Angeles Rams 
at Philadelphia Eagles 
The Eagles have opened as a consensus -6.0 point home favorite with some -6.5 lines out there along with some Eagles -5.5 . The total opened 44.5 and went to 43.5 before bouncing back to 44.5.
Just like in the Wild Card round, you have three home favorites that are going to be popular in money line parlays and teasers. (Eagles, Chiefs, and Lions)
Trends
- LA Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
- LA Rams are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
- Philadelphia is 9-1, 17-3, and 25-5 SU at home in their last 10/20/30 home games
- The average score in the Eagles last 10 home games as favorites has been 26-17 and they were favored by an average of -6.4 points and total of 44
Key Injuries
Rams - TE Tyler Higbee (Q)
Eagles - LB Nakobe Dean (O)
Weather - 39 degrees with 26 percent chance of precipitation
