Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Titans vs. Packers

Sunday Night Football should be fun, as the Packers are 3.0-point home favorites over the Titans in a game with a 54.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. The 11-3 Packers still have a strong chance at clinching the top spot in the NFC, while the 10-4 Titans are tied atop the AFC South heading into Sunday's action. We have stars all over the field, but salary constraints will make it difficult to get as many as we'd like.

QUARTERBACKS

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($11,600 DK, $16,000 FD) is the most expensive player on FanDuel and second-most on DraftKings, which isn't surprising since he comes in with multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season, including at least three in four of his last five. Even better, he now faces a Titans defense that's allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, including more than 300 passing yards twice in the past four games, a span that also saw them give up four passing touchdowns to Baker Mayfield. Needless to say, Rodgers figures to be plenty popular.

On the other side is Ryan Tannehill ($10,600 DK, $14,500 FD), who comes in with multiple touchdowns in all but two games this season, including at least three in two of his past three, highlighted by last week's game against Detroit when he threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns while adding 21 rushing yards and two more scores. The Titans don't throw the ball a lot, as Tannehill has 31 or fewer passes in eight of his last nine, and he now faces a Packers defense that's allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, holding all but Deshaun Watson under 300 yards, and six of their last eight to one or zero touchdowns.

Given the expected usage, Tannehill is probably not going to be overly popular, and not as popular as Rodgers, though he does make for a solid leverage point against those who play expecting the Packers to win and the Titans to focus on their running game, which is an understandable strategy since only the Ravens have had more rushing attempts this season.

RUNNING BACKS

The Titans' desire to run the ball completely revolves around Derrick Henry ($12,400 DK, $15,500 FD), the most expensive player on DraftKings and second-most on FanDuel. He leads the league in rushing attempts (321), rushing yards (1,679), runs over 20 yards (13), 100+ yard games (nine) and he's second in rushing touchdowns (15), red-zone carries (58) and carries inside the 10-yard line (31). Given that the Packers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, there's every indication that Henry will be very popular even for those who think the Packers win. 

One thing to note is that the Packers have allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns to running backs (five) this season, and that doesn't really play into Henry's advantage since he's not much of a pass-catcher. And while only five teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns, Green Bay has actually only given up two in their last six games, which strangely came against the Lions in Week 14. Matchup aside, Henry will be very popular, even as captain/MVP despite the salary multiplier on DraftKings, and fading him might come down to moving to Tannehill instead of loading up on Packers.

Green Bay's backfield situation is much clearer than it could have been, with Jamaal Williams ($3,000 DK, $7,500 FD) doubtful to play because of a quad injury, which should allow Aaron Jones ($9,400 DK, $13,000 FD) to get a vast majority of the running back opportunities. There's a chance AJ Dillon ($1,400 DK, $6,000 FD) gets more work because of Williams' absence, though that didn't happen last week against Carolina when Williams suffered the injury. Dillon seems like a worthwhile flyer for those who make a lot of lineups (or who make a few/one and have no problem coming in last place) because he's cheap and could get some surprising looks, but overall Jones is the guy.

It also doesn't hurt that he's been really good recently, rushing for at least 130 yards in two of the last three games and is now against a Titans defense that's allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. With plenty of focus on the Packers' passing game, particularly Rodgers, Jones makes for a fine pivot while still providing access to the favored team in the game with a high implied total.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

The immediate pivot from Rodgers if you want access to the Packers' passing game is Davante Adams ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD), who is tied for the fourth-most receptions (98), is eighth in receiving yards (1,186), sixth in targets (131) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (14) despite only playing 12 games. He has been targeted at least nine times in every game but one this season, and he had at least 100 yards in three of his last five. It's not overly difficult to get both Rodgers and Adams, and they make all the sense in terms of correlation, but you'll have to find some decent values to fit them in, not to mention you're likely fading Henry and/or Tannehill in that situation.

The rest of the Packers' pass catchers feels like just a bunch of guys, with tight end Robert Tonyan ($6,400 DK, $10,000) at least being on Rodgers' good side, as evidenced by the 10 receiving touchdowns he has this season, tying him with Travis Kelce for the league lead among players at their position. Tonyan doesn't rack up many yards, breaking 50 yards only once in his last seven games, but with a touchdown in each of his last five, he'll surely get some looks.

Otherwise, you're looking at the non-Adams wide receivers, which brings you to Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,800 DK, $8,500 FD), who leads the team in air yards (1,027) and aDOT (17.4) and is second in targets (60) and receiving yards (603). The difficulty with Valdes-Scantling is that he's incredibly inconsistent, as he had six catches on six targets for 85 yards and a touchdown in Week 14 but was held without a catch in Weeks 12, 13 and 15 despite playing 56, 46 and 40 offensive snaps, respectively. He's always a big-play threat, but he is understandably too inconsistent for cash games.

Given that, Allen Lazard ($5,600 DK, $9,500 FD) seems like a more reasonable option, though he's not really that cheap for a player who topped out at 63 receiving yards this season outside of his Week 3 explosion against the Saints when he caught six of eight passes for 146 yards and a touchdown, a game that Adams didn't play. The likely pass catchers for an optimal lineup probably ends there for the Packers, as Tavon Austin ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), Equanimeous St. Brown ($200 DK, $6,000 FD) and Marcedes Lewis ($600 DK, $6,000 FD) are just not involved enough to justify much consideration. St. Brown can at least make something happen on only a handful of snaps, but relying on Rodgers looking in his direction on his few snaps seems futile.

The Titans' passing attack isn't nearly as prolific, but there still has to be plenty of consideration for A.J. Brown ($9,000 DK, $12,500 FD) and Corey Davis ($7,800 DK, $11,000 FD), who are either first or second on the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and air yards. Brown leads the team with 10 receiving touchdowns (Davis is third with five), getting into the end zone in 10 of his last 11 games. Additionally, he had at least 87 receiving yards in three of his last four. Davis doesn't have touchdowns, but he's still managed at least 110 receiving yards in three of his last five, including two touchdowns in his last three, and the slight discount on both sites could have fantasy players going his way. 

Tight end Jonnu Smith ($4,600 DK, $9,000 FD) is the likely third place to look, as he's third on the team in targets (56), receptions (37) and receiving yards (410), while Brown is the only one with more than his seven receiving touchdowns. However, he hasn't been that good recently, scoring just one touchdown in his past five games, a span that saw him get more than 20 receiving yards once. Add in that the Packers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season and Smith may not be that worthwhile of an option.

Unfortunately, we're mostly left with punts after that, as Anthony Firkser ($1,600 DK, $7,000 FD) isn't usually a consideration as long as Smith is active, and guys like Cameron Batson ($1,000 DK, $6,500 FD) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) just don't get enough snaps to be relevant. 

Overall, Adams seems likely to be a popular captain/MVP play, with Brown and Davis potential options for those who want a more contrarian path. It's not that Brown and Davis will be ignored, but it doesn't seem like most people will want to use them in the multiplier spots when guys like Rodgers, Tannehill, Adams, Jones and Henry are also options there.

KICKERS

A game that's expected to be high scoring won't be one that many people will see as an opportunity to roster a kicker or two, even if Mason Crosby ($4,200 DK, $8,000 FD) and Stephen Gostkowski ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) have been reliable fantasy-point scorers this season. They don't have much upside, but the scoring opportunities have been there. Then again, Crosby hasn't had multiple field-goal attempts since Week 9, while Gostkowski's last time with multiple tries was Week 11, but they could always be helpful even in a higher-scoring game.

The consideration is whether they make more sense than the skill position players in their price range, especially if we think the expensive players are the ones responsible for most of the fantasy points. Crosby is only $600 cheaper than Valdes-Scantling on DraftKings, and while the latter obviously has a much higher ceiling, he's also more likely to finish with zero fantasy points. That's the biggest consideration when deciding whether to roster the kickers, with a lot of that consideration revolving around what types of contests you're entering.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

While many people won't look at the kickers because they think there will be a lot of touchdowns scored, that outcome also means the defenses will be overlooked. The other difficulty with the defenses is that Rodgers and Tannehill have combined to throw nine interceptions on 907 pass attempts, which doesn't bode well for defenses that have three combined interceptions in the past three games.

The Packers ($3,400 DK) have at least gotten to the quarterback well lately, recording 17 sacks in the past four games, but Tannehill has only been sacked 20 times all season. It's also not as positive for the Titans ($2,600 DK), who didn't have a single sack in any of their last three games and now face a quarterback who has been sacked 18 times this year. Needless to say, the defenses aren't going to be popular but given the extreme variance of the position, contrarian players will surely have them in their player pools.