After one of the best Wild Card Weekends in recent memory, we enter this week to the final 6-Team Underdog Battle Royale slate of the year. While there are only eight teams playing, we have the normal size Underdog drafts and as a result we will be doing the full breakdown of the Battle Royale slate. These slates may function very similarly to the Prime Time Underdog slates where one position can dry up quickly making it hard to win without a top option at a given position. Let's dive in a take a look at this one.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 72.56% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 22.72% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 4.72% |
While it is not as extreme as last week, the sims still prefer RB in the flex but it is at a much lower rate than the usual. On the surface, RB feels stronger than WR so this makes sense, but I am curious to see if the sims prefer taking two early RBs and then taking shots at the WRs or if there are stronger scroll options at RB. TE is also slighlty elevated which makes sense on a slate with few options. A TD could make some lower drafted TE
After one of the best Wild Card Weekends in recent memory, we enter this week to the final 6-Team Underdog Battle Royale slate of the year. While there are only eight teams playing, we have the normal size Underdog drafts and as a result we will be doing the full breakdown of the Battle Royale slate. These slates may function very similarly to the Prime Time Underdog slates where one position can dry up quickly making it hard to win without a top option at a given position. Let's dive in a take a look at this one.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 72.56% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 22.72% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 4.72% |
While it is not as extreme as last week, the sims still prefer RB in the flex but it is at a much lower rate than the usual. On the surface, RB feels stronger than WR so this makes sense, but I am curious to see if the sims prefer taking two early RBs and then taking shots at the WRs or if there are stronger scroll options at RB. TE is also slighlty elevated which makes sense on a slate with few options. A TD could make some lower drafted TE optimal.
What ADPs to Draft
No adjustments to the rules for the sim, so for a refresher read up below.
Just a reminder here are the buckets and the rules on how they can be "drafted".
- ADP <= 6
- ADP > 6 and <= 10
- ADP > 10 and < 28
- ADP >= 28
By no means are these buckets at all perfect but we need some rules to allow the sim to build "reasonable" teams. Per the rules, you are allowed at most ONE player in Bucket One, TWO players in Bucket Two, THREE players in Bucket Three, and FOUR Players in Bucket Four. Additionally you may only take TWO players across Bucket One and Two and THREE players total across Bucket Two and Three. Again, this is not perfect but it does the job for what we are trying to accomplish. Let's take a look at how the sim actually built teams.
Bucket One | Bucket Two | Bucket Three | Bucket Four | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 42.37% |
1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 24.84% |
1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9.33% |
1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7.76% |
0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4.07% |
0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3.99% |
1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2.84% |
1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1.74% |
0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.88% |
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.83% |
0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.69% |
0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.31% |
0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.25% |
0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.10% |
Even more than last week, the overwhelmingly "correct" structure is just following ADP. This makes a ton of sense as with fewer options there are far fewer projectable pieces late to take a chance on. There is value in rotating your last round picks to get to different options but this certainly is not a slate to be skipping huge ranges of ADP in the middle rounds. On slates like this, if the middle rounds are flat, it makes it more important to be correct with the late guys but do not confuse that with meaning you should trying to get to four super low rostered pieces.
QB Analysis
There are eight QB options this week and five of them are going in Bucket One (Josh Allen) or Bucket Three. These five players will be drafted in nearly 100 percent of drafts. The sims view Allen as optimal the least often of these options mostly just because you are sacrificing a highly projected player in order to take him.
Drake Maye has the highest projected sim optimal rate of these options, but I think it is completely reasonable to like any of the four in Bucket Three more than the others. However, the three Bucket Four options look like fantastic plays. Brock Purdy is the third most frequent optimal option and Sam Darnold also exceeds 10 percent. Between those two and C.J. Stroud, Bucket Four QB are optimal around 35 percent of the time. On these shorter slates, this highlights a dynamic that is unique to the Underdog Battle Royale's. Once everyone takes a QB there is no reason to take one before your final draft pick. No matter the ADP, make sure you are aware of what is going on in your draft room.
TE Analysis
With the George Kittle injury, TE has gotten even thinner this time around. Colston Loveland has the best ADP and has the most explosiveness making him a great option but the sims only see him as optimal 13 percent of the time. Similar to the dynamics at QB, once you get past the top option with the best chance to separate, you are operating in a world where he does not break the slate. With that concept in mind, using a high draft pick on him means sacrificing another high projecting player. The sims like AJ Barner and Dalton Schultz the most, and this fits exceptionally well with the idea of the scroll down QBs. I will be taking some shots on Loveland, but I think the chances he does not separate are higher than his ADP wants to suggest.
RB Analysis
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 38.51% |
TWO | 1 | 34.10% |
TWO | 2 | 0.71% |
THREE | 1 | 48.88% |
THREE | 2 | 6.45% |
FOUR | 1 | 33.09% |
FOUR | 2 | 1.33% |
RB appears exceptionally flat this week with ten options optimal more than 10 percent of the time. However, beyond those ten options it becomes incredibly thin. This helps to explain the extremely low rate of optimal Bucket Four options compared to a normal slate. TreVeyon Henderson is the only Bucket Four option that beats our 10 percent threshold but Blake Corum falls just short of the number. This also helps to explain the sims' overall love of the late QBs and TEs. It sees that on most slates, you want to spend those early picks on your RBs and WRs, seeing the non-elite single position options as fairly flat. Up top, Christian McCaffrey does stand out projection and optimal rate wise, but after him you can choose your own adventure at RB. This is definitely a slate where taking your RB with your QB can be viable even if the RB does not catch passes.
I personally do not believe this is a great slate to have a strong take at RB and instead I will be taking them at a fairly even rate overall.
WR Analysis
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 43.17% |
TWO | 1 | 19.78% |
THREE | 1 | 52.09% |
THREE | 2 | 7.97% |
THREE | 3 | 0.10% |
FOUR | 1 | 63.41% |
FOUR | 2 | 13.76% |
FOUR | 3 | 0.17% |
WR tells a slightly different story. There is an extremely strong top tier with Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who both have massive optimal rates. Davante Adams also grades out extremely well with a near 20 percent optimal rate. The sims currently have Nico Collins (concussion) as in, who unsurprisingly dominates the optimal rates as a result but Jayden Higgins is a reasonable swap option at a similar ADP. With that in mind, a bit of the bucket Four optimal rates should be shifting to the earlier picks.
There are nine WRs projecting as over 10 percent optimal but then unlike RB, there are 11 more options that project as optimal more than 2.5 percent of the time. This may not sound like a huge number but this supports my belief that taking two of the early or middle round RBs and allowing your differentiation to come from late WR/TE/QB options is the ideal way to be playing this slate. The projections like the Rashid Shaheed play as well as the Bears WRs, seeing all of them are fairly flat options. I am personally partial to Ricky Pearsall, who if he plays could be a fantastic low-roster piece with real upside for volume.
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