This article is part of our Four-Down Duel series.
50/50 or Heads Up
In 50/50 or Heads-Up contests, always aim for a lineup that has a higher floor rather than a higher ceiling. In 50/50 contests, the top half of all entries finish in the money, meaning you don't have to pick a high-ceiling lineup that shoots for the moon. Build these lineups with the players who are essential to winning regardless of their price.
Ryan Lindley, $6,700 - Before the laughter, finger pointing and urge to write a negative comment happens, let's play this out. It was almost as well known that Lindley didn't have a touchdown pass until last week as it was that there hasn't been a touchdown pass to a wide receiver in Kansas City. That monkey is off Lindley's back, and while the Panthers have played better defense lately, they're still not the elite team they were last season. Lindley had 17.6 fantasy points last week, a number Andrew Luck at $9,700 hasn't achieved in his any of his last three games. The price compared to the other quarterbacks is too good to pass up and allows flexibility at all other positions. Anywhere from 10-15 fantasy points is a reasonable expectation and will pay off his price whereas you'll need 15-plus from any other quarterback for him to hit his value.
Jeremy Hill, $7,400 - His price should be higher considering he's scored 12, 18.7 and 27.7 fantasy points since being named the starter by Hue Jackson. He's going to be widely owned in cash games, and there's no reason to risk fading him going against a defense that gave up more than 4.3 yards per carry. DeMarco Murray ($9,000) isn't worth the risk here with his broken hand and going against the Lions who on the season gave up 3.2 yards per carry.
Joique Bell, $6,600 - Bell is likely to be the next highest owned running back this week and again, there is no reason to risk fading him in cash games. Before last week's six-point performance against Green Bay (where the game flow hurt his production) Bell had games of 15.7, 12.3, 27.8 and 23.7 fantasy points the previous four games. The Cowboys defense is in middle of the league as far as yards per carry (4.3) but is 31st in the league after giving up 18 rushing touchdowns. While Reggie Bush is back and will be a factor, Bell gets the goal-line work and will run between the tackles on early downs. The price is too good to pass up.
Antonio Brown, $9,200 - It's pretty logical to pair Brown up with Big Ben, but that's taking a lot of risk for a team that will likely be without its star running back. Brown has been featured in this column many times this season and has yet to disappoint. He surpassed 100 yards in both games against the Ravens this season and should do so again this weekend. Going cheap with Lindley allows for this play along with a few other stud options, further justifying taking that quarterback.
T.Y. Hilton, $8,600 - Many will not trust Hilton coming into this game given his lack of production the last two weeks and the fact that he was just dealing with a hamstring injury. Still, he should be close, if not 100 percent healthy, this week and a few things are working in his favor. This game boast the highest over/under total for the weekend, and unless you think that will come by the running game, someone will be on the receiving end of a few touchdowns. While Andrew Luck loves to spread the ball around, Hilton has been his go-to guy dating to last season and has produced pretty consistently.
Steve Smith, $6,400 - Smith has been a key to the Baltimore offense this season, and it's likely the Panthers wish they still had him this weekend. The Pittsburgh defense isn't nearly as good as it was when it last won the Super Bowl, and several of those key pieces on defense are older and not nearly as talented now. Smith has seen 12 targets in each of his last two games and both were basically must-win situations, showing who Joe Flacco will go to when the season is on the line. Being a .5 PPR format helps his value, and Smith should easily surpass double-digit fantasy points making his value.
Coby Fleener, $5,500 - Tight end is a bit of a guessing game this weekend considering all of the inconsistency at the position. Greg Olsen ($6,400, 3.7, 2.6 fantasy points the last two games) and Fleener will likely be the most widely owned tight ends in cash games this weekend. Fleener, for $900 less, is the better option this weekend and could be Luck's second target after Hilton. Fleener has averaged more than seven targets in his last eight games and should work over the middle against the Bengals defense. Again, Vegas has the Colts as the highest scoring team this weekend, and getting multiple parts of the passing game helps build a nice floor in cash games.
Mike Nugent, $4,600 - As always, kickers are incredibly difficult to predict week in and week out. However, this should be a high-scoring game, it's played indoors and it's tough to see the Colts shutting down the Bengals running game.
Detroit Lions D, $4,900 - It doesn't make much sense to risk going with many teams this week in the higher-scoring games, and if Lindley is your quarterback it doesn't make total sense to go with the Panthers. DeMarco Murray won't be 100 percent healthy, and the Lions caught a break when Ndamukong Suh sold his "cold feet" story to the NFL, avoiding suspension. This is a little bit of a risk given how good Tony Romo has been but would it be a surprise if he imploded in this game?
Tournaments
For tournament lineups, you have to look at upside and use some "outside-the-box" picks if you want to cash. Don't use this lineup completely as there is a lower floor here with a lot of players. A mix of studs with a few of the cheaper options listed below could net the top overall prize.
Mohamed Sanu, $6,000 - Many this weekend will gamble on Golden Tate as a long shot and therefore Sanu makes for the better "pot odds" play. He has done little since the beginning of November with Cincinnati transitioning to a run-heavy offense. However, there's the chance this weekend that the Colts get out to a lead and Andy Dalton has to air the ball out. Vontae Davis likely will shadow A.J. Green all game and the drop off to whoever is on Sanu is pretty drastic. Don't be surprised if Sanu hits a long touchdown off play-action as he likely sees single coverage all game.
Dwayne Allen, $5,000 - There's a good chance that the Colts held out Allen Week 17 with their game meaning nothing in their seeding and to make sure he was 100 percent healthy this weekend. He's practiced fully all week, and Andrew Luck is known to spread the ball around. He's easily going to be owned in less than five percent of GPPs this weekend with so many other No. 1 options for their respective teams. That's what makes him an attractive option.
