This article is part of our NFL Reactions series.
Aaron Rodgers informed the Steelers on Thursday that he'll sign with the team, confirming what's widely been expected since late March or early April. It was essentially his last chance at a starting job once the Giants made other plans, unless Rodgers was willing to enter a potential-disaster situation in New Orleans.
This news shouldn't cause huge shifts in fantasy rankings given that it's merely confirming what was expected, but we'll probably see minor boosts to some ADPs in Pittsburgh now that there's certainty Mason Rudolph won't enter training camp as QB1. My recent article comparing ADPs between various best-ball platforms showed Rodgers not even making the cut for the first 18 rounds (top 216 picks).
Check out RotoWire's 2025 fantasy football rankings to see where Rodgers stands now that he's joining the Steelers.
What the Agreement Means for Rodgers
Now that we know he's not retiring, Rodgers should enter the Top 200 in ADP, though perhaps barely. He finished 2024 ranked eighth in passing yards (3,897) and tied for seventh in touchdowns (28), mostly because he played every game and attempted the second-most passes (584). He was just 15th among QBs in total fantasy points and 18th in points per game (15.1), hurt by a lack of rushing stats (107 yards, no TDs).
Rodgers' efficiency might improve some with the move to Pittsburgh, but he's unlikely to increase the rushing stats much at age 41, and even less likely to repeat his No. 2 ranking in pass attempts. In the six years Arthur Smith, Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator, has spent as an NFL head coach or coordinator, he's overseen offenses that ranked 31st, 30th, 19th, 31st, 25th and 29th in pass attempts. Five of those teams were top 10 in rush attempts, including four ranked fourth or higher. There's little doubt Smith's philosophy will remain run-first, and it'd be a major surprise if Pittsburgh's running game and defense fell apart the way the Jets' did last year.
The Steelers' offensive line looks decent enough on paper — with 2023 first-round pick Broderick Jones at left tackle being the big question — but the pass-catching group appears subpar even if WR DK Metcalf proves to be an upgrade on George Pickens. The wideout depth behind Metcalf flirts with league-worst territory, setting up job competition between 33-year-old Robert Woods, 162-pound Calvin Austin, journeyman Scotty Miller and 2024 third-round pick Roman Wilson (who played one game last year). I'm actually an optimist about Wilson, but there's no real hope here if he doesn't step up.
The tight ends are better, with Pat Freiermuth established as a solid-but-unspectacular receiving option and 2023 third-round pick Darnell Washington offering an intriguing blend of size and speed (albeit with just 26 catches through two seasons). Still, the overall picture shows Rodgers as a low-to-medium-volume passer, with minimal rushing production and subpar receiving weapons.
Rodgers likely will be a low-end QB2 for two-QB leagues, or maybe a mid-range QB2 if he plays better than he did for the Jets last season. There's no reason to draft him in single-QB leagues, apart from best-ball formats with 18 or more rounds.
Check out RotoWire's best-ball rankings.
What It Means For Rodgers' Teammates
Metcalf's ADP has been around the 4/5 turn in 12-team best ball drafts, sitting at 48.9 on Underdog, 53.5 on DraftKings and 47.2 on Drafters. It's possible he rises a few spots, but I wouldn't expect any more than that, given the realities of a post-post-prime Rodgers and run-first playcaller. I also don't think Rudolph would've been a total disaster for Metcalf, given Rudolph's surprisingly strong track record of boosting his WR1's production (Diontae Johnson in 2021, George Pickens at the end of 2023, Calvin Ridley in 2024). Personally, I think an ADP in late Round 4 sounds about right.
We may also see slight ADP boosts for Pittsburgh's RBs and TEs of interest: Jaylen Warren, Kaleb Johnson and Freiermuth. Rodgers could have some check-down completions to Warren and Freiermuth on plays where Rudolph would've thrown an incompletion, but they're not all that different stylistically, apart from Rodgers being much better at avoiding turnovers.
Johnson has mostly been going in the seventh round of best-ball drafts, with ADPs of 76.2 on UD, 74.6 on DK and 74.0 on Drafters. Warren goes 2-3 rounds later, at 104.8 on UD, 103.2 on DK and 99.0 on Drafters. Neither figures to rise much because of this signing, but slight gains are possible given that some had concerns about Rudolph destabilizing Pittsburgh's offense (something a 41-year-old Rodgers may also be capable of, to be fair).
Freiermuth looks like the steal here, going at 166.8 on UD, 166.3 on DK and 169.0 on Drafters. I'd expect that to rise by a round or so, but even in the 150s he's a solid pick, coming off a 65-653-7 receiving line last season in an offense ranked 16th in points, 23rd in yards and 29th in pass attempts. Not that I expect those ranks to be much better in 2025, but I do think Freiermuth should stay in the 60-catch range while remaining a clear-cut Option B in Pittsburgh's passing game.
