Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson

24-Year-Old Wide ReceiverWR
Minnesota Vikings
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Jefferson reached 1,400 yards as a rookie, 1,600 as a sophomore, 1,800 in Year 3 and then looked ready to push for 2,000 early last season. He was already up to 571 in Week 5 when a hamstring knocked him out for the fourth quarter and then the next seven games. Jefferson's long-awaited return was spoiled by a chest injury after 13 snaps, but he came back the next week and exploded for 476 yards over the final four games to comfortably clear 1,000 yards for the season (1,074). If not for the two partial games, he almost certainly would've led the league in receiving yards per game for a second straight year, though Miami's Tyreek Hill was the undisputed king for both 2022 and 2023 in terms of per-route production. Jefferson is by no means lacking in that regard -- he's been Top 10 in yards per route in all four of his seasons -- but it helps that he almost never comes off the field when healthy and spent the past two years in Kevin O'Connell offenses that threw the ball 676 (3rd) and 631 (4th) times. O'Connell is still around, but the Minnesota offense is much harder to decipher after TE T.J. Hockenson suffered last-year ACL tear and QB Kirk Cousins left for Atlanta. While few teams, if any, match the WR pairing of Jefferson and 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison, there's obvious risk of a down year with rookie J.J. McCarthy and/or Sam Darnold taking the QB snaps. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
$Signed a four-year, $13.12 million contract with the Vikings in July of 2020. Vikings exercised $19.74 million team option for 2024 in April of 2023.
Absent for start of OTAs
WRMinnesota Vikings
May 20, 2024
Jefferson is not present for the start of OTAs on Monday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
ANALYSIS
Jefferson is amid contract negotiations with Minnesota, so it won't be surprising if he doesn't show up for voluntary workouts with the team. The Vikings' mandatory minicamp won't begin until June 4, at which point Jefferson will incur fines if he isn't in attendance. The star wideout currently is heading into the final year of his rookie contract with a fifth-year option that will pay him $19.7 million. In just 10 games last season, Jefferson still managed to surpass 1,000 receiving yards, his fourth straight such campaign to begin his NFL career. His value to Minnesota's offense and his help in the development of rookie first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy, are impossible to overstate, so the team has every incentive to agree to a new long-term extension with haste.
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NFL Stats
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Fantasy/Red Zone Stats
See red zone opportunities inside the 20, 10 and 5-yard lines along with the percentage of time they converted the opportunity into a touchdown.
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Advanced NFL Stats
How do Justin Jefferson's 2023 advanced stats compare to other wide receivers?
This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.
  • Air Yards Per Game
    The number of air yards he is averaging per game. Air yards measure how far the ball was thrown downfield for both complete and incomplete passes. Air yards are recorded as a negative value when the pass is targeted behind the line of scrimmage. All air yards data is from Sports Info Solutions and does not include throwaways as targeted passes.
  • Air Yards Per Snap
    The number of air yards he is averaging per offensive snap.
  • % Team Air Yards
    The percentage of the team's total air yards he accounts for.
  • % Team Targets
    The percentage of the team's total targets he accounts for.
  • Avg Depth of Target
    Also known as aDOT, this stat measures the average distance down field he is being targeted at.
  • Catch Rate
    The number of catches made divided by the number of times he was targeted by the quarterback.
  • Drop Rate
    The number of passes he dropped divided by the number of times he was targeted by the quarterback.
  • Avg Yds After Catch
    The number of yards he gains after the catch on his receptions.
  • % Targeted On Route
    Targets divided by total routes run. Also known as TPRR.
  • Avg Yds Per Route Run
    Receiving yards divided by total routes run. Also known as YPRR.
Air Yards Per Game
129.3
 
Air Yards Per Snap
2.46
 
% Team Air Yards
27.4%
 
% Team Targets
16.6%
 
Avg Depth of Target
12.8 Yds
 
Catch Rate
68.0%
 
Drop Rate
4.0%
 
Avg Yds After Catch
4.0
 
% Targeted On Route
25.9%
 
Avg Yds Per Route Run
2.78
 
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2023 NFL Game Log
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2022 NFL Game Log
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2021 NFL Game Log
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2020 NFL Game Log
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Snap Distribution / Depth Chart
Snap Counts
Snap %
Minnesota VikingsVikings 2023 WR Snap Distribution See more data like this | See last season's snap counts
#% of Team Snaps

87881%
78272%
52549%
39036%
888%
797%
202%
30%
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Receiving Alignment Breakdown
See where Justin Jefferson lined up on the field and how he performed at each spot.
Detailed
Grouped
Side
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2023 Justin Jefferson Split Stats
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Measurables Review View College Player Page
How do Justin Jefferson's measurables compare to other wide receivers?
This section compares his draft workout metrics with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average.
Height
6' 1"
 
Weight
195 lbs
 
40-Yard Dash
4.43 sec
 
Vertical Jump
37.5 in
 
Broad Jump
126 in
 
Hand Length
9.13 in
 
Arm Length
33.00 in
 
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Justin Jefferson See More
ADP Analysis: Tracking ADP Movement for Best Ball Since the 2024 NFL Draft
5 days ago
Ezekiel Elliott is back in Dallas, boosting his ADP by a league-high 80 spots compared to April. RW's Jerry Donabedian discusses Zeke and the other big ADP movers from April to May.
Best Ball Strategy: Comparing ADPs Between Underdog, DraftKings and Drafters
11 days ago
Bucs RB Rachaad White is one of the many players whose ADP varies considerably across different best ball platforms. RW's Jerry Donabedian highlights other examples and analyzes positional trends on each site.
Dynasty Strategy: Final 2024 Rookie Top 65
16 days ago
Malik Nabers is an elite wide receiver prospect, but his landing spot was bad enough to delay his full arrival.
NFL Dynasty Watch: Biggest Winners from the 2024 NFL Draft
23 days ago
Zeke is back in Dallas and won't have to compete with a rookie draft pick for playing time. Check out the other big winners from draft weekend, with analysis from RW's Jerry Donabedian.
NFL Draft Recap: Day 1 Instant Rookie Reactions
26 days ago
Dig into the fantasy fallout from the first round of the NFL draft with analysis for each pick including looks at Michael Penix's fit in Atlanta and Malik Nabers' fit in New York.
Latest Fantasy Rumors
Not present for OTAs
WRMinnesota Vikings
May 20, 2024
Jefferson was not at the Vikings' facilities Monday for the start of organized team activities as he continues to work on a contract extension with the team, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
ANALYSIS
The superstar wideout didn't show up for the voluntary offseason program in April, and he'll likely continue to sit out until he gets an extension, which is expected to reset the top of the wide receiver market. Jefferson's absence is costing him reps with new franchise quarterback J.J. McCarthy, ramping up the pressure on the Minnesota front office to get a deal done.
See All NFL Rumors
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Jefferson, Randy Moss and Odell Beckham are the only players to reach 4,000 receiving yards in their first three NFL seasons, and Jefferson is more than 650 yards clear of the other two after leading the NFL with 1,809 last year. The 22nd overall pick from the 2020 draft has neatly progressed from 1,400 to 1,600 to 1,800 yards each year while catching at least 64.7 percent of his targets for at least 9.7 YPT each season. Jefferson is only slightly above league average for WRs in terms of size (6-1, 195) and timed speed (4.43 40), but he's otherwise elite when it comes to route-running, ball skills and general feel for the game. He rapidly surpassed veteran Vikings wideout Adam Thielen, who was released this offseason and signed with Carolina. Thielen's departure might mean even more defensive attention on Jefferson, but it could also mean even more targets in a passing game that otherwise features first-round WR Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson and WR KJ Osborn. Boasting the highest non-injury floor of anyone in the player pool, Jefferson quickly emerged as the most popular No. 1 overall pick in early 2023 drafts. While one might argue there are a few running backs with more upside, we also have to consider that a 2,000-yard season is within Jefferson's range of possibilities.
On a per-target basis, Jefferson's second NFL season (9.7 YPT) wasn't quite as dominant as his first (11.2). But that's nitpicking; the bigger picture shows he added 42 targets from the previous year and was still one of the most efficient wideouts in the league. Only 11 produced more yards per target, and that includes four who saw 70 or fewer passes. Jefferson finished fourth among WRs in targets and catches, second in receiving yards and tied for sixth in touchdowns. The 23-year-old often makes it look easy, seemingly playing both bigger and faster than his on-paper metrics suggest (6-1, 195, 4.43 40, 37.5-inch vertical). From a fantasy standpoint, there's just as much to like, with Jefferson playing in an above-average offense that has enough weapons to keep defenses honest but nobody to challenge him as the go-to guy. Jefferson surpassed Adam Thielen for that honor mid-2020, and while the 31-year-old Thielen scored 10 touchdowns last year, he saw 2.5 fewer targets per game than his young running mate (9.8 to 7.3). If anything, the split could go even more in Jefferson's direction this year, though there is another variable with new head coach Kevin O'Connell arriving from the Rams. Other than that, stability is the story, with QB Kirk Cousins and RB Dalvin Cook joining Jefferson, Thielen and TE Irv Smith to form one of the league's more well-rounded groups of skill-position players.
With Stefon Diggs sent off to Buffalo, the Vikings needed to find a reliable complement to Adam Thielen last season. It didn’t take long. Despite a limited offseason and training camp, and playing only 65 snaps combined in Weeks 1-2, Jefferson set the league on fire as a rookie, leading the NFL in YPT (11.2) by a mile and finishing fourth in receiving yards (1,400). At 6-1, 202, and with good speed (4.45), Jefferson is athletic, smooth and explosive. Despite getting only 125 targets (18th), Jefferson tied for the league lead in catches of 20-plus yards with 23. The only hole in his game was red-zone usage — he saw only 12 inside-the-20 targets, eight inside the 10 and two inside the five, while his less efficient teammate Thielen had 20, 13 and eight, respectively. It’s no wonder then that Thielen had 14 touchdowns on 108 targets to Jefferson’s seven on 125. Heading into 2021, Jefferson is firmly established as Kirk Cousins’ big-play receiver and likely top dog. Thielen is still solid and should reprise a prominent role, but the depth chart thins considerably after those two, so expect an increase in targets for Jefferson in Year 2.
The Vikings traded Stefon Diggs to the Bills for the 22nd pick and used it to select Jefferson, his replacement. Jefferson was a monster at LSU last year with 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns on 111 catches. At 6-1, 202, Jefferson has above average size and good speed (4.43), and his vertical (37.5 inches) and broad jumps (126 inches) were both in the top quartile among his peers. While Jefferson might be ideally suited for the slot - where he dominated at LSU - he'll likely have to play out wide more in Minnesota's two-TE offense. Even in three-wide formations, it could be Adam Thielen rather than Jefferson getting the majority of slot snaps. Either way, the rookie should begin the year as the Vikings' No. 2 target behind Thielen, providing some much-needed downfield playmaking for Kirk Cousins.
More Fantasy News
Stellar performance to end season
WRMinnesota Vikings
January 7, 2024
Jefferson brought in 12 of 14 targets for 192 yards and a touchdown and rushed once for minus-12 yards in the Vikings' 30-20 loss the Lions on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Poor QB play affects line
WRMinnesota Vikings
December 31, 2023
Jefferson finished with five receptions on 10 targets for 59 yards in Sunday's 33-10 loss to the Packers.
ANALYSIS
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Goes off for 141 yards plus score
WRMinnesota Vikings
December 24, 2023
Jefferson corralled six of 10 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-24 loss to the Lions.
ANALYSIS
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Building back momentum
WRMinnesota Vikings
December 16, 2023
Jefferson caught seven passes for 84 yards on 10 targets in the 27-24 overtime loss to the Bengals on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Suiting up Saturday
WRMinnesota Vikings
December 16, 2023
Jefferson (chest) is listed as active for Saturday's game at Cincinnati.
ANALYSIS
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