Savvy DFS managers know that one of the great parts of DFS Wild Card weekend is having six games to choose from. This broad selection of contests provides DFS managers with value acquisition opportunities when making Underdog picks or PrizePicks picks. Here are five rules that you can use to help target those value plays and build winning Wild Card DFS rosters.
Rule 1: Target players in games with high total points betting odds
Online sportsbooks have some of the smartest people in the business putting together over/under betting odds. You should use that institutional knowledge of NFL news to your advantage by rostering players who are in those high-total points games. The goal should be to target games with an over/under of 50+ points if possible for DFS Wild Card weekend to maximize your chances to take home some fantasy football contests.
The 2024 NFC Wild Card game of Washington at Tampa Bay fit this bill with an over/under of 50.5 points. Not surprisingly, it was the highest-scoring game that weekend. Jayden Daniels scored 22.3 DraftKings points and was thus a relative bargain at $7,500.
Rule 2: Find value plays WRs who are facing bad secondaries
Bill Walsh said if a defense has bad personnel, a smart offensive coordinator can target those personnel weaknesses all day long. That's why DFS managers should be on the lookout for bad secondaries when navigating fantasy football rankings and target value play WRs in those matchups.
This was the case with Washington WR Dyami Brown in the 2024 NFC Wild Card game against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers secondary had some of the worst coverage metrics for much of that campaign due to a constant presence on the NFL injury report. Brown was available for only $4,600 on FanDuel and rewarded DFS managers on DFS Wild Card weekend who rostered him with 19.9 points.
Rule 3: Target recent performance rather than season long performance
Many DFS prognosticators use season-long performance to grade matchup strength when putting together custom fantasy football rankings. While it's usually a good idea to lean on larger sample sizes, when it comes to DFS matchups all you should care about are recent performances.
For example, Denver's rush defense was superb through most of the 2024 season. The Broncos then struggled to stop the run in Weeks 15-17. That was a harbinger for James Cook posting 21.1 points in DraftKings against Denver despite having a salary of only $6,700.
Rule 4: Avoid tough matchups even if it means avoiding a great player
You won't find great players available at a bargain salary when reviewing your DFS options with an NFL lineup optimizer. That means if you add one of these elites to your roster, they have no margin for error. This makes those players a tough sell when they have matchups against superb defenses.
This explains Justin Jefferson's 8.3-point FanDuel dud in the 2024 wild-card game against the Los Angeles Rams. Chris Shula's defense had held opponents to fewer than 10 points in three of the Rams last four regular season games. Jefferson was the most expensive WR on the board at $9,200, but the reality is no DFS manager should have been playing him during DFS Wild Card weekend given the combination of high price and unfavorable matchup.
Rule 5: Stack QB/WR versus favorable matchups
Nothing brings a smile to a DFS manager's face faster than finding a strong QB/WR stack via an NFL start-sit tool. That goes double when the stack occurs versus a favorable defensive matchup.
That approach worked like a champ in the 2024 NFC Wild Card matchup between Washington and Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers' mediocre coverage talent allowed Daniels, Terry McLaurin and Brown to rack up a combined 58.1 points in FanDuel for a combined salary of $20,700. That's great bang for the buck that wins DFS Wild Card Weekend contests.
