NFL Best Ball: Running Back Analysis + 2026 Rankings

NFL Best Ball Fantasy Football: Running Back 2025 Review + 2026 RB Rankings

In this article, I take a look back at the 2025 RB ADP compared to the final fantasy football rankings. Then, I compare historical data going back to 2021 to identify some draft trends to make note of for this coming season. We'll highlight some of the best value picks in recent years, including 2025, before getting to the good stuff: the 2026 running back rankings. 

Let's start out our fantasy football best ball running back recap with a look at the top of the board from last season.

The market identified 14 running backs as worthy of going in the first three rounds, and almost all of them returned value. Perhaps more importantly, there were only two landmines from that group -- Bucky Irving (RB9 in ADP, RB35 End of Season) and Omarion Hampton (RB12, RB39). 

There had been a growing emphasis in recent years on loading up on receivers early in drafts, but those who targeted RB early were rewarded in most cases.

2025 Running Back Stats for Fantasy Football

Below is a table of the top 14 running backs by ADP compared to how they performed relative to their draft capital.

The bolded players underperformed their draft slot by 10 or more spots in the final rankings.

2024 was much rougher on the early RB drafters as consensus 1.1 Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, and Isiah Pacheco all had disaster seasons at-cost. There's also the magnitude of those flops from 2024 relative to this past year. Hampton and Irving were likely either your RB2 or an RB1 on a team that loaded up at WR or TE.

QUICK LINKS

Sync a League

Your path to victory starts here

Rankings

See the top players in your league

NFL Lineups

See the weekly starting lineups

Irving teams had a 9% advance rate, as did Hampton. So, whiffing early still set you back, even if it wasn't as catastrophic as missing on 1.1.

Here's a chart comparing the top 15 running backs by ADP in 2024 and 2025 by bust rate and severity. 

2024 Running Back Stats for Fantasy Football

As you can see, the top tier of running backs in 2025 held serve far better than it did in 2024. 12 out of the top 15 running backs drafted in 2025 managed to stay within 10 slots of final position rank. Again, 2024 was worse in that regard, with 33% of the top 15 significantly underperforming.

The bust severity bar from 2024 is a bit skewed from McCaffrey's nothingburger, but the point still stands that the upper echelon of running backs performed better this past season. Put another way, a Zero-RB type of build this past season was riskier because you were passing on quality running backs who lived up to their ADP.

Get ahead of the game for 2026 with our NFL projections, which are already live. 

Running Back Strategy: Optimal Rounds To Draft RBs in Best Ball

I had our data science braintrust (shoutout Paul Mammino) dig into Best Ball Mania data from the last five years to look at optimal ranges for running back picks. 

The gist of this table is a breakdown of when running backs were drafted and the average number of "usable" weeks they produced by round. A "usable" week is a way of saying that the RB performed well enough (RB18 or better) to crack your starting lineup in all likelihood. "Good" is defined as a running back who produced at least four usable weeks in a season. "Best" is the top performer in terms of usable weeks produced in each draft round. This is scaled to the regular season, so Weeks 1-14.

Early RB was Key in 2025

As you can imagine, the running backs selected in the first two rounds have generally lived up to their expectations. The third round tends to signal a drop-off. The market generally doesn't produce a ton of Round 3 backs, which makes sense. There's a push to secure one of the projected workhorse backs in the first two rounds, and once all of them are snatched up, drafters are left to decide who could feasibly take on that type of role. This past year, Josh Jacobs, Omarion Hampton and Kyren Williams were the main third-round options at RB, and Chase Brown was in that range for much of draft season until a late surge pushed him into the top 20. 

Running Back Dead Zone

The proverbial "RB Dead Zone" appears to be in rounds 5-6, and again in 8-9. That's not to say there's never a case to grab an RB in those ranges, but the data shows that once the ADP is crystalized, the guys who settle into those ranges tend to be pretty volatile.

Anyone who drafted RBs from those ranges this past season will certainly tell you it was a fruitless endeavor. Chuba Hubbard, James Conner, Isiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones and Kaleb Johnson were all rough picks for one reason or another. If you went light on RB early hoping to get a steal of an RB2 from this bucket, you're well aware of how that went. 

Navigating the End Game

The data shows us what's pretty intuitive: it's exceptionally difficult to get a late-round steal at running back. The last chance saloon for RBs seems to be Round 14, where we seem to have a reasonable hit rate relative to acquisition cost. That's not to say that you should go into every draft thinking "oh, I'm drafting a running back in the 14th no matter what." 

What it means is that you need to go into each draft understanding that once you're past the 14th, you're in dart-throw territory at RB. It makes sense; it's harder for a running back buried on a depth chart to find a way into a "usable week." There's only one running back on the field at a time, generally, and the bulk of the snaps go to the starter. There's often a passing down specialist role held down by the RB2, and those types are either off the board by this range or still available for a good reason, like a Justice Hill or something.

An RB going Round 14 or later likely needs some attrition on the depth chart ahead of him to even get a chance. And even then, it's no guarantee that he capitalizes. 

Finding a hit at the other positions (QB, WR, TE) isn't necessarily easier, but it's still more likely than unearthing a difference-making running back late in drafts.

Best Late Round Running Backs 2021-2025

This list is a who's who of guys who are remembered as fantasy football legends. Raheem Mostert stands atop the list, giving his drafters nine weeks of RB18-or-better production from a 13th round ADP. These guys are exceptions, though. 10 running backs drafted Round 13 or later in the last five years have produced five-or-more usable weeks. Only two of them have been from the 18th round, which is the last round on Underdog.

Best Running Back Values 2025

Below we have the best values in terms of ADP vs final ranking in the fantasy stats in 2025.

I'll drill down to the six biggest outperformers here and see if there are any lessons to take away.

Javonte Williams (RB36 ➡️ RB10)

Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but there were signs that Javonte was a sharp pick at cost. He was signed to a one-year free agent deal entering his age-25 season. Obviously, he hadn't been great in his final two years in Denver after his knee injury in 2022. But even with that detail in mind, he had been durable in those two seasons, playing 33 of a possible 34 games. 

Williams was also entering a good offensive environment; the Cowboys projected as one of the highest scoring teams in the league this season, and that came to fruition. Any running back who could lay claim to the lion's share of the backfield work was going to be set up for success and red zone opportunities. 

The Jaydon Blue hype was understandable, but only to a certain point. People were wishcasting De'Von Achane outcomes on Blue, focusing only on build and speed, and overlooking important details like college workload. 

Even if Williams wasn't an exciting option, he seemed like the most competent option with a three-down skill set.

The runout for Williams was obviously perfect. None of Jaydon Blue, Miles Sanders or Malik Davis ever really challenged Williams for snaps. We can't bank on that always happening, of course, but it's important to consider the plausible upside scenarios for each of the players in a jumbled backfield like Dallas' was during draft season.

Travis Etienne (RB34➡️ RB9)

Etienne was a tricky eval coming into this year. As we outlined earlier, Etienne was coming off a disaster year in 2024 relative to ADP. He played in 15 games but mustered just 150 carries for 558 yards and two touchdowns while also seeing his receiving work fall off a cliff, going from 73 targets to 52. 

Jacksonville was undergoing a system change on offense with first-time coach Liam Coen taking it over. And, frankly, the overall market whiffed on Jacksonville this year. 

Etienne was taken as RB34 on Underdog, widely available in the ninth round after guys like Tyrone Tracy and Kaleb Johnson.

There are guys like this every year, the post-hype hidden gems that people jump off of a year too early. Chuba Hubbard was that guy in 2024, Raheem Mostert in 2023, and so on. 

Similar to the Cowboys' backfield, the market simply did not know what to do with the Jags backfield. Etienne was the nominal leader in the clubhouse at 103, but Tank Bigsby and Bhayshul Tuten were routinely being drafted about two rounds later. 

Etienne was a former first-round pick with a pair of 1,000-yard seasons to his credit going into 2025. He was also entering a contract year. Volume concerns were understandable after things dipped to 10 carries per game in 2024, but a ninth-round pick isn't going to be without his warts. The market should have been more bullish on a profile like Etienne's. 

Other Value RBs from 2025

• Quinshon Judkins (RB45➡️RB27): His ADP yo-yoed throughout draft season, maybe more than any player I've ever seen. After the Combine, he was firmly going in the first eight rounds or so. His second-round draft stock and favorable landing spot pushed him up even further. Then the off-field allegations came to light, and there was doubt as to whether he'd even get signed. His ADP cratered. Those who drafted him at the peak almost recouped value for the pick. Those who bought the significant dip profited nicely. 
• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB41➡️RB25): I don't fault the market for this one, really. The Pats took TreVeyon Henderson with a high pick and had a new coaching staff. Stevenson's fumbling issues ballooned in 2024, and it stood to reason that even if he were RB1 to open the season, he'd be on a short leash if the ball security issues continued. Welp, Mike Vrabel stuck with the vet and was rewarded for it. Stevenson had a strong year by conventional metrics, and it was supported by good underlying numbers. The fantasy community always wants the shiny new toy to pan out right away. Sometimes we get a case like Stevenson where there was far more in the tank than drafters cared to acknowledge.
• Jaylen Warren (RB30➡️RB17): Warren's draft season was pretty similar to Stevenson's. His team brought in a rookie RB with a Day 2 pick and the fantasy community was quick to annoint Kaleb Johnson as the 1:1 Najee Harris replacement. The gap between Johnson and Warren wasn't as extreme as the Henderson/Stevenson gap but the market still got it wrong, pricing Johnson (RB27) slightly ahead. That was an extremely consequential miss as Warren was a solid RB2 with several usable weeks while Johnson checked in as RB 105. You literally would have done better drafting C.J. Ham than Johnson.
• D'Andre Swift (RB24➡️RB13): Swift was drafted as an RB2 and challenged for RB1 distinction by the end of the season. He wasn't merely a compiler; Swift had five games with at least 20 points in Half PPR scoring. It was close to a career year for him, and what made him a particularly sharp pick was the opportunity cost. If we filter to the cluster of RBs going in Swift's range, he was the best pick. He beat out the likes of Chuba Hubbard (RB19➡️RB42), David Montgomery (RB21➡️RB26), RJ Harvey (RB22➡️RB20) and Isiah Pacheco (RB23➡️RB53).

2026 Running Back Rankings for Best Ball

Below is a table with the Underdog running back rankings by ADP compared side-by-side with my running back rankings. 

*Underdog ADP as of 1/30/2026

Quick Takeaways from RB Rankings for Best Ball

• Agreement at the top for the most part.
• I'm the low man on CMC. I'm terrified that The Cliff is near. Long injury history and coming off 413 combined touches. If McCaffrey stays healthy, I'll end up being extremely wrong on this one. That's a big if entering his age-30 season, though.
• With Derrick Henry, I think the Baltimore offense bounces back, and I think there was clear evidence that the King still has plenty left in the tank after this season.
• I was surprised to see how ahead of market I was on Chase Brown. I might need to rethink things just a bit; however, a healthy Joe Burrow (I know, I know) will make this offense a points factory. I want the clear RB1 in an offense that projects near the top in scoring, and that's Brown.
• I'm a little below market on Hampton but that will likely change the next time I update my rankings. The Chargers' OL injury luck can't be any worse next year, right?
• With Ashton Jeanty, I love the player and hate the team context. I think it's going to be more than a one-year effort to get things turned around. They'll have a rookie quarterback, albeit a promising one, and there are still tons of OL questions. Plus, we don't even know what the coaching staff looks like yet. I'm okay being conservative on my Jeanty expectations for now. 
• Kenneth Walker was a new addition to my rankings. The Zach Charbonnet injury should give KWIII the runway to be the workhorse in Seattle next year, given that the Seahawks seem more likely to re-sign him now. 
• I didn't have Josh Jacobs in my Top 15 but he's going as RB13 on Underdog. Same goes for Bucky Irving (UD RB14). 

As you get yourself ready for best ball draft season, make sure you check out my best ball quarterback review article as well.