Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert

26-Year-Old QuarterbackQB
Los Angeles Chargers
2024 Fantasy Outlook
After two top-10 fantasy seasons, including QB2 in 2021, the last two years have been less than spectacular for Herbert. Injuries played a part, including last season when he missed the final four games with a finger injury that required surgery. Even when healthy, he didn't live up to expectations. In four of his last seven full games he posted no more than 13 fantasy points. Herbert was on target with 74.3 percent of his attempts (8th in NFL), but his average target depth was a middling 7.6 yards (17th) and he only completed 32.2 percent of his attempts of 20-plus yards (21st), all of which resulted in a mediocre 6.9 YPA (21st). This season, he'll have a new system with new teammates. As the Jim Harbaugh era begins, gone are RB Austin Ekeler and WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Joshua Palmer, coming off an injury-marred season, is the No. 1 WR by default followed by Quentin Johnston, a 2023 first-round pick who had a miserable rookie season. 2024 second-round pick Ladd McConkey, who has 4.39 speed, will challenge both for targets, and the team also signed veteran DJ Chark. How many targets are available is another matter with new run-minded offensive coordinator Greg Roman -- Herbert's fourth OC in five years. The strong-armed Herbert certainly won't get the 39.1 attempts per game he averaged the last four years -- only Tom Brady averaged more since 2020. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#107.66
ADP
$Signed a five-year, $262.5 million contract with the Chargers in July of 2023.
Hot start to OTAs
QBLos Angeles Chargers
May 21, 2024
Herbert (finger) has impressed early in OTAs during 11-on-11 drills and is already demonstrating a connection with rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey, Daniel Popper of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Herbert looks fully recovered from the finger injury that cost him the final four games of 2023, and after losing both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (knee) this offseason, it's encouraging to see him already establishing trust with McConkey. Even with new coach Jim Harbaugh installing a run-heavy scheme, Herbert should still provide strong passing numbers working with McConkey and returning wideouts Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston. The addition of No. 5 overall pick Joe Alt, who's started at right tackle throughout OTAs, also promises more protection for Herbert, which should ease any adjustment to a new offensive philosophy.
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NFL Stats
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Fantasy/Red Zone Stats
See red zone opportunities inside the 20, 10 and 5-yard lines along with the percentage of time they converted the opportunity into a touchdown.
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Advanced NFL Stats
How do Justin Herbert's 2023 advanced stats compare to other quarterbacks?
This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.
  • Bad Pass %
    The percentage of passes that were considered to be poorly thrown.
  • Avg Target Depth
    The average number of yards thrown per pass by the quarterback – including incomplete passes.
  • Sack Rate
    The percentage of dropbacks where the quartback was sacked. The longer the bar below, the more often they are sacked relative to other QBs.
  • Avg Receiver YAC
    The average number of yards after the catch that receivers gained on passes thrown by this quarterback.
  • Receiver Drop %
    The percentage of passes dropped by receivers on passes thrown by this quarterback. The longer the bar, the more sure-handed his receivers have been.
Bad Pass %
18.8%
 
Avg Target Depth
8.1 Yds
 
Sack Rate
6.0%
 
Avg Receiver YAC
5.3 Yds
 
Receiver Drop %
5.5%
 
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2023
2022
2021
2020
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2022 NFL Game Log
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2021 NFL Game Log
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2020 NFL Game Log
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Snap Distribution / Depth Chart
Snap Counts
Snap %
Los Angeles ChargersChargers 2023 QB Snap Distribution See more data like this | See last season's snap counts
J.Justin Herbert
#% of Team Snaps

79972%
30628%
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2023 Justin Herbert Split Stats
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Measurables Review View College Player Page
How do Justin Herbert's measurables compare to other quarterbacks?
This section compares his draft workout metrics with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average.
Height
6' 6"
 
Weight
236 lbs
 
40-Yard Dash
4.68 sec
 
Shuttle Time
4.46 sec
 
Cone Drill
7.06 sec
 
Vertical Jump
35.5 in
 
Broad Jump
123 in
 
Hand Length
10.00 in
 
Arm Length
32.88 in
 
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Justin Herbert See More
ADP Analysis: Tracking Best Ball ADP Movement from May through June
3 days ago
Wide receivers were the big ADP gainers over the past month, with Jaylen Waddle leading the way after signing a huge extension late in May.
2024 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates: New Scheme, New Production?
10 days ago
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin has never quite had the stats to match his talent, but that could change in 2024 with the help of a new offensive coordinator and quarterback.
Dynasty Strategy: Glue Guys to Target
13 days ago
Championship dynasty teams need stars and role players both, and Gus Edwards is among the cheapest potential pickups for a flex upgrade.
NFL Win Totals 2024: Betting the Los Angeles Chargers' Win Total
14 days ago
The Chargers had a massive overhaul this offseason and Jim Coventry analyzes how NFL bettors can leverage the unknown when betting on the Chargers' 2024 win total set at 8.5.
Roundtable Rankings: 2024 Top-150 Fantasy Rankings
16 days ago
RotoWire gathered its top football writers for their top-150 rankings for the 2024 fantasy season. Among the players with the greatest variance, Mike Evans stands out.
Latest Fantasy Rumors
Gets offensive help via draft
QBLos Angeles Chargers
April 27, 2024
After losing running back Austin Ekeler and wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the offseason, the Chargers used five of their nine picks in the 2024 NFL Draft on offensive players to surround Herbert, Daniel Popper of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
The Chargers set the tone by selecting Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick, then followed that up by taking versatile wide receiver Ladd McConkey out of Georgia early in the second round. The Bolts wrapped up their Day 3 picks with Troy running back Kimani Vidal and wide receivers Brenden Rice and Cornelius Johnson out of USC and Michigan, respectively. With Herbert's blindside protected by Alt and young skill players to plug in the holes left by Ekeler, Allen and Williams, the Chargers are putting their franchise quarterback in a position to succeed in 2024 and beyond.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Herbert looked poised for a big season last year, but injuries knocked him (and the Chargers) off course. Fractured rib cartilage suffered Week 2 hampered Herbert for several weeks, and he threw seven interceptions in a nine-game stretch with a 6.4 YPA and 6.2-yard average target depth (the team went 4-5). Compounding the situation were a season-ending biceps tear for LT Rashawn Slater in Week 3 and lesser injuries to WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who played only four full games together. No surprise, then, Herbert’s TD passes dropped by 13 from the previous year, and while he was second in the league with 4,739 passing yards, he needed 699 attempts to get there as his average target depth (6.5) ranked 31st and his 6.8 YPA ranked 26th. The Chargers had enough of OC Joe Lombardi’s scheme, replacing him with former Cowboys coordinator Kellen Moore in the offseason. A more balanced offense -- L.A. was 31st in run percentage (35.0) last season -- with improved efficiency in the passing game would benefit Hebert even if it means fewer pass attempts. He was on the field for OTAs after January surgery on his non-throwing shoulder, wasting no time getting to work with Moore and first-round pick Quentin Johnston. The rookie gives Herbert a second deep threat across from Williams, while Allen, RB Austin Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett provide plenty of firepower for shorter throws.
Herbert followed his record-setting rookie year with another season of prolific numbers last year. He became the only player in NFL history with 30-plus touchdown passes in each of his first two years, setting records for most TD passes, passing yards and 300-yards games in a player’s first two seasons. Herbert even finished QB2 in fantasy, with at least 300 yards or three TD passes in 12 games en route to ranking third in touchdowns (38) and second in yards (5,014). His passing efficiency last season was similar to his impressive first year, up a tick or two in a few places like YPA, on-target percentage and average target depth. And he was again effective throwing downfield, ranking third in on-target rate on attempts of 20-plus yards (min. 50 attempts). Herbert did all that after learning his second offense in as many years with the arrival of a new coaching staff. With head coach Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi returning, stability figures to help Herbert in his third year. A bigger help is the return of wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and running back Austin Ekeler. The Chargers added TE Gerald Everett to replace Jared Cook, then drafted RG Zion Johnson in the first round to improve their offensive line. Herbert has a strong roster around him, and he's yet to really tap into his running ability, which gives him additional upside on top of his continued growth as a passer.
It took an errant needle poke to Tyrod Taylor's lung to get Herbert his first start last season in Week 2, but he quickly showed he should have been the starter all along. The sixth overall pick in the 2020 draft, Herbert set numerous NFL rookie records, including most TD passes (31) and most passing yards per game (289.1). He became the youngest player in NFL history with 30 TD passes in a season and was the fourth rookie with 4,000 passing yards. Scouts questioned his touch on deep balls coming out of Oregon, but Herbert had few issues capitalizing with his cannon arm, connecting for 10 TD passes on attempts 20-plus yards (3rd) and completing eight passes that went for at least 50 yards (T-1st). He was also good under pressure, completing 54.9 percent of his attempts with an on-target rate of 63.4 percent, both third in the league. And his 4.68 speed added fantasy value as he rushed for five touchdowns (T-6th). Part of Herbert's work last year was the result of volume (39.7 attempts per game, 3rd), as his bad-pass percentage ranked 26th (20.2) and his average target depth was 25th (7.8 yards). But new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, who ran a pass-happy offense in Detroit in 2014-15 before serving as Saints QB coach the last five years, could help Herbert improve in those areas without sacrificing too much volume. And Herbert still has quality weapons in Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and former Saints TE Jared Cook. The Chargers also upgraded the offensive line, signing All-Pro center Corey Linsley and left guard Matt Feiler and drafting left tackle Rashawn Slater 13th overall. Herbert, who finished QB9 last season, easily could jump into the top 5 of fantasy QBs this year.
Herbert, the third quarterback drafted this year at sixth overall, looks like the ideal NFL QB at 6-6, 236, with plus athleticism and 4.68 speed in the 40. But he has some issues to overcome before the Chargers crown him heir apparent to Philip Rivers. Herbert has a rifle for an arm to attack downfield but, according to scouts, lacks touch on his deep ball, and his footwork and mechanics are apt to break down under pressure. Despite being a four-year starter at Oregon, Herbert was noted for his inconsistency - even as senior. In his final four games, he stumbled to 58.9 percent passing with four TDs, three INTs and 202 yards per game. And while his timed speed was third fastest among quarterbacks at the combine, Herbert seemed to reluctant to tuck it and run as a collegian. He also needs to adapt to an NFL route tree after playing in Oregon's limited offensive scheme, though that shouldn't be too high a hurdle for the winner of last year's "Academic Heisman." Plus, with Tyrod Taylor entering camp as the starter, Herbert has time to develop his game before likely taking the reins later in the year. When he does, he'll have an improved offensive line protecting him with Mike Pouncey returning from injury, joined by the newly acquired Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga. He also has excellent weapons to target, including Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. Herbert might not be NFL-ready when the season opens, but time is on his side.
More Fantasy News
Losing key contributors
QBLos Angeles Chargers
Finger
March 14, 2024
Herbert (finger) has lost the majority of his offensive playmakers with the departures of WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett this offseason, Kris Rhim of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Moves to IR, out for season
QBLos Angeles Chargers
Finger
December 12, 2023
The Chargers announced that Herbert will undergo surgery Tuesday to repair a fracture to his right index finger and has been placed on injured reserve.
ANALYSIS
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Requires season-ending surgery
QBLos Angeles Chargers
Finger
December 12, 2023
Herbert will undergo surgery Tuesday on his fractured right index finger and is expected to miss the remainder of the season, sources tell Tom Pelissero of NFL Network.
ANALYSIS
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Procedure on finger likely
QBLos Angeles Chargers
Finger
December 11, 2023
Herbert is likely to undergo a procedure Tuesday to address his fractured right index finger, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
ANALYSIS
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Expected to miss Thursday's game
QBLos Angeles Chargers
Finger
December 11, 2023
Herbert isn't expected to be available for Thursday's game against the Raiders while he recovers from a right index finger fracture, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
ANALYSIS
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