This article is part of our DFS NHL Breakdown series.
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage over the past six weeks. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 115.1 (TOR) to a worst of 84.0 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 91.7 (STL) to a worst of 113.6 (NYR). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. The ratings in the chart below represent adjusted match up ratings.
Slate Preview
Thursday night brings a 10-game main slate, highlighted by the Islanders at Atlantic Division leaders Boston, and a potential Western shootout in the nightcap between Vegas and Vancouver. Chicago and Colorado will be playing the second in a back-to-back, while Dallas is playing the first of a back-to-back. Below are some of the highlighted tournaments for Thursday, include special tournaments on both sites: $7 Super Crossbar on FanDuel and $33 Waffleboard on DraftKings.
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $33 Goal (285 entries) | $33 Waffleboard (3,534 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (98 entries, 2 max) | $20 Crosscheck (176 entries, 3 max) |
| $7 Super Crossbar (10,085 entries) | $12 Knuckle Puck (588 entries, Single Entry) |
| $5 Save (238 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (951 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (2,681 Entries) | $3 Enforcer (990 entries, 3 max) |
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage over the past six weeks. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 115.1 (TOR) to a worst of 84.0 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 91.7 (STL) to a worst of 113.6 (NYR). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. The ratings in the chart below represent adjusted match up ratings.
Slate Preview
Thursday night brings a 10-game main slate, highlighted by the Islanders at Atlantic Division leaders Boston, and a potential Western shootout in the nightcap between Vegas and Vancouver. Chicago and Colorado will be playing the second in a back-to-back, while Dallas is playing the first of a back-to-back. Below are some of the highlighted tournaments for Thursday, include special tournaments on both sites: $7 Super Crossbar on FanDuel and $33 Waffleboard on DraftKings.
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $33 Goal (285 entries) | $33 Waffleboard (3,534 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (98 entries, 2 max) | $20 Crosscheck (176 entries, 3 max) |
| $7 Super Crossbar (10,085 entries) | $12 Knuckle Puck (588 entries, Single Entry) |
| $5 Save (238 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (951 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (2,681 Entries) | $3 Enforcer (990 entries, 3 max) |
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.
| TEAM | OPP | STARTING GOALIE | OR | DR | SOG | S% | SV% | SHCF | SHCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY Islanders | at BOS | (C) Semyon Varlamov | 99.9 | 104.2 | 30.6 | 9.2 | 91.5 | 15.7 | 16.8 |
| Boston | vs NYI | (C) Tuukka Rask | 103.7 | 98.5 | 33.9 | 10.3 | 92.6 | 15.2 | 14.9 |
| Dallas | at TB | (C) Anton Khudobin | 108.6 | 98.6 | 32.9 | 8.6 | 92.8 | 15.9 | 15.8 |
| Tampa Bay | vs. DAL | (C) Andrei Vasilevskiy | 126.1 | 100.2 | 35.4 | 11.3 | 90.3 | 18.6 | 15.7 |
| Buffalo | at PHI | (C) Carter Hutton | 98.4 | 95.5 | 31.0 | 9.3 | 90.3 | 16.9 | 16.6 |
| Philadelphia | vs. BUF | (C) Carter Hart | 91.7 | 93.0 | 31.9 | 8.5 | 90.6 | 16.7 | 15.6 |
| Los Angeles | at CBJ | (C) Jack Campbell | 99.5 | 96.6 | 31.1 | 7.5 | 89.8 | 18.2 | 16.9 |
| Columbus | vs. LA | (C) Joonas Korpisalo | 92.0 | 98.5 | 31.5 | 8.4 | 90.4 | 15.4 | 15.6 |
| Nashville | at OTT | (C) Juuse Saros | 102.5 | 101.0 | 34.7 | 7.6 | 88.1 | 17.2 | 15.2 |
| Ottawa | vs. NSH | (C) Anders Nilsson | 91.6 | 102.1 | 29.7 | 9.2 | 91.5 | 17.9 | 15.6 |
| Chicago | at WPG | (P) Robin Lehner | 96.6 | 104.0 | 32.1 | 9.1 | 91.9 | 16.2 | 13.5 |
| Winnipeg | vs. CHI | (P) Connor Hellebuyck | 94.3 | 98.9 | 32.6 | 10.7 | 93.3 | 16.9 | 16.8 |
| Carolina | at COL | (P) James Reimer | 110.1 | 92.4 | 31.9 | 8.6 | 90.9 | 15.4 | 15.2 |
| Colorado | vs. CAR | (P) Philipp Grubauer | 102.7 | 99.6 | 32.3 | 11.0 | 91.1 | 17.4 | 16.6 |
| Montreal | at CGY | (P) Carey Price | 109.7 | 102.5 | 34.4 | 7.3 | 89.3 | 15.6 | 17.7 |
| Calgary | vs. MON | (C) David Rittich | 98.8 | 97.9 | 33.2 | 8.3 | 90.9 | 19.2 | 15.9 |
| Minnesota | at ARI | (C) Devan Dubnyk | 96.7 | 102.8 | 32.2 | 12.0 | 90.1 | 18.1 | 15.7 |
| Arizona | vs. MIN | (C) Darcy Kuemper | 87.3 | 102.6 | 34.8 | 7.5 | 93.3 | 16.3 | 17.2 |
| Vegas | at VAN | (P) Marc-Andre Fleury | 106.9 | 101.7 | 31.6 | 7.9 | 91.6 | 18.1 | 16.7 |
| Vancouver | vs. VGK | (P) Jacob Markstrom | 100.1 | 102.7 | 32.8 | 9.6 | 90.2 | 16.6 | 15.3 |
Line Stacks
The line stacks below are not necessarily my top projected scoring lines, but are the best values on the board. All players below have a number inside parenthesis next to their names, which denotes the power play unit they are on (1) or (2). If they are not on a power play they will be noted with a (0), and the rare occasion of a (3) means that they are on both power play units.
WPG1 vs. CHI: Mark Scheifele (1) ($7,600 FD, $7,200 DK), Patrik Laine (1) ($7,500 FD, $7,200 DK), Kyle Connor (1) ($6,600 FD, $6,500 DK) / WPG2 vs. CHI: Blake Wheeler (1) ($7,100 FD, $6,000 DK), Nikolaj Ehlers (2) ($5,300 FD, $5,000 DK), Jack Roslovic (2) ($3,800 FD, $2,900 DK) - Chicago (104.0 DR) lost 4-1 at home to Colorado on Wednesday and are now making a quick turnaround with a trip to battle Winnipeg. WPG1 is my top rated line of the day, as Scheifele, Laine and Connor have combined for 11 goals, eight assists and 39 shots over their past five games and will get the benefit of home line match ups and can avoid the CHI2 line, which is the only plus-defensive line in my rankings. WPG2 is a nice value option to mix into your lineups; Wheeler, Ehlers and Roslovic have scored four goals with nine assists and 38 shots over their last five games but may see more time against that CHI2 line, however, playing on the second of a back-to-back may not matter all that much.
COL1 vs. CAR: Nathan MacKinnon (1) ($9,100 FD, $8,100 DK), Mikko Rantanen (1) ($7,800 FD, $7,400 DK), Gabriel Landeskog (1) ($7,100 FD, $6,800 DK) - Colorado is playing on the second night of a back-to-back but get the advantage of playing at home in a high-tempo game (CAR 110.1 OR). COL1 had a great night in Chicago on Wednesday with two goals, three assists and seven shots; I like for them to continue picking up the pace as Rantanen and Landeskog get their legs back following injuries.
PHI1 vs. BUF: Claude Giroux (1) ($7,600 FD, $6,400 DK), Sean Couturier (1) ($6,700 FD, $6,800 DK), Travis Konecny (1) ($6,200 FD, $5,700 DK) - First a word of warning: I am terrible at choosing the right Philadelphia line. That being said, I really like PHI1 on Thursday. Konecny missed three games but in his first game back the trio recorded a pair of goals with three assists and nine shots. Buffalo is a middle-of-the-road defensive unit but allows the ninth-most goals per game (3.47) on the road.
NSH1 at OTT: Ryan Johansen (1) ($6,100 FD, $4,300 DK), Calle Jarnkrok (1) ($4,600 FD, $4,700 DK), Yakov Trenin (0) ($3,000 FD, $2,800 DK) - NSH1 offers a nice value stack option. In their first game together the trio combined for two goals and four assists Tuesday night against the Islanders and face the improving-but-defensively challenged Senators (102.1 DR) on Thursday.
Other Options: BOS1 vs NYI, TB1/2 vs DAL, CAR2 at COL, CGY1/2 vs MON, VGK1/2 at VAN, ARI1 vs MIN, CBJ1/3 vs LA
Solo Forward Options
Max Pacioretty (2) VGK2 at VAN ($7,200 FD, $7,300 DK) - Pacioretty has been on fire of late with five goals, four assists and 21 shots over his last five games. Vancouver is not a bad defense (102.7 DR), but as mentioned before, I prefer second line options on the road since they typically see lesser defensive match ups.
Oliver Bjorkstrand (1) CBJ1 vs LA ($5,200 FD, $5,500 DK) - Bjorkstrand is heating up with four goals, an assist, 21 shots and three blocks of his last five -- with three of those goals over the past two games. He has ascended to the top even strength and power play lines, so the added scoring opportunities should continue to be available.
Pierre-Luc Dubois (1) CBJ2 vs LA ($4,900 FD, $5,000 DK) - Dubois has been moved off the top line, but he has played better with more of the offensive responsibilities on his shoulders when he is on the ice. He has a goal, three assists and six shots during his last three games and draws a favorable match up against a Kings team that is deep into a long East Coast road trip.
Kyle Turris (2) NSH3 at OTT ($3,900 FD, $3,400 DK) - Turris has three assists in his last four games and offers a sub-$4,000 price on both sites in a revenge game against Ottawa.
Rocco Grimaldi (0) NSH2 at OTT ($3,500 FD, $2,800 DK) - A promotion to the NSH2 line has proved to be a good one after netting a pair of goals in his last two games alongside Filip Forsberg and Matt Duchene. The aforementioned match up against Ottawa should put Grimaldi in another nice spot Thursday.
Defensemen
Roman Josi (1) NSH at OTT ($6,600 FD, $6,400 DK) - I'm going to have quite a bit of exposure to the Nashville forward lines, so there's plenty of reason to include Josi in those plans, as he has three goals and an assist in the last two games, with a massive 18 shots over the last four.
Ivan Provorov (1) PHI vs. BUF ($5,600 FD, $5,500 DK) - Provorov has been a solid producer since been promoted to the top power play unit and has record an assist in each of the last two games to go along with seven shots and four blocks -- the peripherals offer a nice floor with goal and assist upside.
Shea Theodore (1) VGK at VAN ($4,800 FD, $5,300 DK) - Theodore has been on fire with a goal and five assists in his last three games to go along with six shots and four blocks; the high-tempo game at Vancouver should keep him involved in the offense.
Neal Pionk (1) WPG vs. CHI ($4,200 FD, $4,700 DK) - Pionk has been an assist machine with six helpers over the last five games. In addition to 11 shots, he is a great pairing with either WPG1 or WPG2 because he provides overlapping power play correlation with both lines.
Goalies
Darcy Kuemper ARI vs MIN ($8,800 FD, $8,200 DK) - Kuemper may be the front runner for the Vezina Trophy with an amazing season line of 15-7-2 with a 1.97 GAA and .935 SV%. He now draws a home start against a Minnesota team that has picked up the pace offensively of late, but I feel as if this only will help Kuemper's save total. If I had to bet on a shutout tonight, Kuemper would be my top pick.
David Rittich CGY vs MON ($7,800 FD, $7,800 DK) - Montreal has been playing fairly decent defensive hockey recently, but they have only scored 15 goals over their past six games (2.5g/gm). Rittich has won five of his last six starts (2.49 GAA, 0.920 SV%), which has coincided with a resurgence of the Calgary offense (28 goals during a seven game win streak 11/27 thru 12/12).
Connor Hellebuyck WPG vs CHI ($8,100 FD, $8,500 DK) - Hellebuyck has not played well lately, with 12 goals allowed of his previous three starts (4.54 GAA, .864 SV%), but he draws a struggling Chicago team traveling on the tail end of a back-to-back after losing 4-1 at home to Colorado on Wednesday. Hellebuyck's struggles should keep his ownership down in a great spot for a bounce back.
Tournament Punt Option: Jack Campbell LA at CBJ ($7,300 FD, $7,000 DK)
