Best Patriots vs Broncos Player Prop Bet Picks for AFC Championship Game (2026)

The New England Patriots will take on the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship. Even though they're in the final four, the Patriots still haven't silenced the endless easy-schedule criticism. The Broncos will be without Bo Nix, who broke his ankle late in last week's game. Denver is a 5.5-point underdog at home, thanks in large part to the fact that backup QB Jarrett Stidham, who hasn't thrown a regular-season pass since 2023, will be at the helm. 

With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, this game has no shortage of player prop opportunities. If you're looking to spice up this matchup with some NFL Conference Championship player props, I've got you covered. Just make sure to use the bet365 bonus code to juice up your picks. Here are my favorite NFL player props for this postseason matchup: 

Best DraftKings Patriots vs Broncos NFL Player Prop Bets: AFC Championship

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RJ Harvey – Rushing Yards: UNDER 42.5 (-115) 

RJ Harvey has shown flashes this season, but he hasn't really put it all together. I don't think that'll change against this Patriots' run defense. The presence of Milton Williams has transformed this run D into one of the best units in the league. 

With a healthy Williams, the Patriots had the No. 8 defense in EPA per play over the first 10 weeks. They were the fourth-best run defense in EPA and had the eighth-best rushing success rate in that same span. But he went down with an ankle injury in Week 11. Without him from Week 11-17, the Pats had the fourth-worst EPA per play against the run, and owned the third-worst rushing success rate. And the real kicker: with a healthy Williams, the 2025-26 Pats have not allowed any RB to record more than 53 rushing yards. That includes both playoff games, where Kimani Vidal's 31-yard outing was somehow the best day an RB has had against them. 

Stop me if you've heard this before, but the soft schedule the Pats faced played a big role in that. Still, it's not like RJ Harvey is prime Adrian Peterson. Harvey had the second-worst explosive run rate among the 49 RBs who carried the rock at least 100 times this year. He has been held to 43 yards or fewer in each of his last three outings, including a 20-yard performance last week. This might be my favorite bet on the entire slate this week. 

Jarrett Stidham – Rushing Yards: OVER 15.5 (-116) 

Look, I'm not going to pretend like I have any feel for how Jarrett Stidham will perform. He has only started four regular-season games since coming into the league as a fourth-round pick in 2019. What I do know is that QBs tend to use their legs more in the postseason. Across the league, quarterbacks have averaged 10.4 carries per game thus far in the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs. That's a 27.8% spike from the 8.14 carries per game the position group averaged in the regular season, according to SumerSports. Anecdotally, it makes sense. QBs are happier risking hits when a trip to the Super Bowl is on the line compared to a Week 3 game against, say, the Browns. 

I expect to see Stidham using his legs early and often on Sunday. His dual-threat ability was one of the main reasons he was a five-star recruit back in the day. But he's shown he can run in the NFL, too. Stidham cleared 34 yards in each of his two starts in 2022, averaging 44.0 rushing yards per game. He was less effective in 2023, recording just eight rushing yards across two starts. 

Sean Payton has designed this offense around Bo Nix's mobility. Nix carried the ball 12 times for 29 yards in his lone playoff appearance this season, and he was constantly on the move with boots and rollouts. Stidham has the physical tools needed to emulate that. 

The Pats have a great run defense, but they're less-effective against rushing QBs. The Pats allowed 4.84 yards per carry to opposing QBs this season, which was the ninth-worst mark in the NFL. Justin Herbert also lit them up as a runner in the Wild Card Round, tallying 57 yards on 10 carries. 

How Stidham will fare in his postseason debut is one of the biggest mysteries in the league right now. But I'm confident he'll do some damage on the ground on Sunday. 

Best BetMGM Patriots vs Broncos NFL Player Prop Bets: AFC Championship

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Drake Maye – Passing Yards: OVER 224.5 (-115) 

Drake Maye didn't reach this mark last week, but I like his chances against Denver. The Broncos looked like the best defense in football for most of the year, but they have quietly declined in the second half. From Week 11 to Week 17 (the last time Denver played its starters in the regular season), Denver ranked No. 24 in EPA per play and No. 21 in EPA per dropback. That's a huge decline from their first 10 games, when they ranked No. 3 and No. 2 in those metrics, respectively. And last week, Josh Allen hung 283 passing yards on the vaunted Denver defense. 

Drake Maye isn't Josh Allen, but with a normal workload, 230 passing yards has been the rule — not the exception. He put up at least 230 passing yards in 14 of 19 starts this season, and he almost certainly would've gone 17 of 19 had he not been benched in three blowout victories. 

Maye has struggled with turnovers in the playoffs, but Denver was tied for the fourth-fewest takeaways in the regular season. If he cleans that up, he should have no trouble reaching 225 passing yards on Sunday. 

Rhamondre Stevenson – Rushing Yards: OVER 47.5 (-110) 

As mentioned above, Denver's defense declined over the second half of the season. The Broncos were the league's eighth-best run defense in EPA per play over the first 11 weeks of the season. They fell to No. 14 in that metric from Week 12-17. Their performance against the run last week didn't put those concerns to rest. James Cook turned 24 carries into 117 rushing yards and averaged a whopping 3.3 yards per carry before contact. For context, Blake Corum led all qualified RBs with 3.5 yards per carry before contact this season. 

While Denver's defense has slipped over the second half, Rhamondre Stevenson has surged. He was averaging 9.9 carries for 31.6 rushing yards per game over his first nine appearances. But the last seven times he has taken the field (including the playoffs), Stevenson is averaging 63.1 rushing yards per game. He has reached at least 47 rushing yards in five straight games, and recorded at least 53 rushing yards in both playoff games.

You could also look into TreVeyon Henderson's props this week, but I think Stevenson is the better value even at a higher number. 

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2025-26 Primetime Player Prop Bet Record 

Each week, I'll post my updated, season-long record for these prop bet picks pieces. Here's my current record (as of the Conference Championships):

• Regular Season Record: 61-56 (52.1%)
• Playoff Record: 16-11 (59.2%) 

Where to Bet on AFC Championship Props

Below, I've provided a list of the top sportsbooks that offer player prop betting markets. I've also provided the sign-up bonus at each book, so you can make the most of your prop bets.