This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's unfortunate to see so many injuries this early in the season but we're lucky to have DFS to lean on! Injuries can obliterate your season-long leagues but that's not really an issue when it comes to DFS. I've also been slightly unlucky in terms of the slate sizes so far this season on Mondays and Thursdays, but we have nine games making up this Monday card. With that in mind, let's get started with the arms!
Pitching
Joe Ryan, MIN at CWS ($10,400)
It's difficult to fade any pitcher against the ChiSox right now, especially a good one. Let's start there because Chicago sits last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. It's a historically bad offense and Ryan should roll right through them. The right-hander has scored at least 18 DraftKings points in all five starts, providing a 3.77 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 11.9 K.9 rate. Not to mention, Ryan has registered at least 25 DK points in all three matchups with the White Sox since the start of last season.
Garrett Crochet, CWS vs. MIN ($8,600)
This isn't a betting article, but the under (7.5 runs) isn't the worst bet in what should be a pitcher's duel. Crochet's 6.37 ERA might stray people away, but that doesn't tell the whole story. In fact, that ERA is a blatant lie, with Crochet compiling a 2.58 xERA, 2.98 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP and 32 percent K rate. All of that means some positive regression should be right around the corner, and a matchup with Minnesota is a great way to start it. The Twins rank 25th in K rate and xwOBA!
Bailey Falter, PIT at OAK ($6,500)
This price made my jaw drop. Falter has definitely pitched like a $6,500 player throughout his caree,r but it's impossible to overlook his recent form. He's allowed two runs or fewer in four straight starts, posting a 1.57 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in that span. Those are the peripherals you usually see from an elite receiver, which should continue in a matchup with Oakland. The A's rank bottom three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA and K rate since the start of last season. That's why they're only projected to score 3.5 runs!
Top Targets
Bryce Harper, PHI (vs. Canning) $6,000
Harper got off to a slow start, but this All-Star is cooking right now. The first baseman has a .429 OBP, .690 SLG and 1.118 OPS over his last eight games. We've seen this guy play like that for months at a time, maintaining a .390 OBP and .910 OPS throughout his career. He's been even more dominant against right-handers, generating a .401 OBP and .947 OPS against them. Griffin Canning is one he could clobber, too, collecting a 7.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP while allowing a .959 OPS to righties this year.
Elly De La Cruz, CIN (vs. Waldron) $5,900
Not many players are as talented as this guy. That has been in full force through the opening month of this season, with De La Cruz ranking second in MLB with 12.8 DK points per game. His power-speed combo is what makes him such a dynamic DFS target, has he's accumulated seven homers, 18 RBI, 25 runs and 18 steals. That always makes him a threat, especially since he has a 1.101 OPS and 15 steals across his last 20 games. We love that he faces a righty as well, with EDLC accruing a 1.127 OPS against them this year. Matt Waldron's knuckleball might lead to Elly going crazy on the base paths as well, with Waldron totaling a 7.79 ERA and 1.66 WHIP at Triple-A and a 4.42 xFIP and 1.44 WHIP in San Diego this year.
Bargain Bats
Andy Pages, LAD (vs. Henry) $3,200
The Dodgers always seem to find one random outfielder who breaks out every year and Pages might be the guy this season. The 23-year-old had a .452 OBP and 1.146 OPS at Triple-A before getting called up and has carried that form over with a .282 AVG and .513 SLG so far with LA. He's also got a 1.026 OPS across his last six outings and is one of the few Dodgers who has the platoon advantage against Henry. We'll dive into Henry's numbers later on, but he's surrendered a .907 OPS against righty bats this year.
Mike Tauchman, CHI (vs. Severino) $3,400
Tauchman was a hero on Sunday Night and he's quietly had an amazing season in Chicago. The two-hole hitter has a .425 OBP and .878 OPS this year but has been even hotter recently. Over his last 11 games, Tauchman has a .500 OBP and an OPS north of 1.200. Most of that damage has come with the platoon advantage in his favor, posting a .444 OBP and .911 OPS against righties this year. It's not like Severino is scary either, sporting a 5.72 ERA and 1.56 WHIP since the start of last season.
Stacks to Consider
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals (Jonathan Bowlan): Vladimir Guerrero Jr ($4,800), Bo Bichette ($4,700), George Springer ($4,300)
Toronto has been terrible this season, but this lineup is too talented to be playing this poorly. They've been a Top 10 offense since calling up Vlad in 2019, and we expect them to regress to that soon. A matchup with Bowlan might be the way to get them back on track, with the Royals righty making just his second start at this level. It's not like this guy was mowing down players in the minors, posting a 5.54 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in the minors dating back to 2022.
Facing a pitiful pitcher like that could get these Toronto bats on track, and they're all affordable below $5K. Vlad is the heart of our stack, totaling a .279 AVG, .359 OBP, .498 SLG and .857 OPS over the last four years. Bo is right there with him despite the 2024 struggles, generating a .299 AVG, .340 OBP, .487 SLG and .826 OPS coming into the year. Springer is also tough to avoid as the projected leadoff hitter, recording an .832 career OPS while amassing a 1.171 OPS across his last four fixtures.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry): Mookie Betts ($6,600), Teoscar Hernandez ($4,900), Will Smith ($4,800), Andy Pages ($3,200)
Stacking the Dodgers can be done on every slate, sporting the best lineup in baseball. They have three legitimate MVP candidates at the top of their lineup, but we're only including Mookie here. It's impossible to use all of those guys with how expensive they are, but Betts is leading baseball with 13.3 DraftKings points per game. He's also got a .407 OBP and 1.048 OPS against lefties since 2022! We already discussed Pages, but Smith is an excellent option at catcher below $5,000. He always bats third for LA, providing a .383 OBP and .931 OPS across his last 14 outings while accruing a 1.198 OPS against southpaws this year.
This LA lineup could have success against some of the best pitchers of all time, but they should slice right through Henry. The Arizona lefty has a 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP this year, which is right on par with his ugly career averages. What's scary is that he's faced some of the worst offenses in baseball this season, and that should have the Dodgers projected to score at least five runs!
