This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
There's no early start this Sunday. With the NFL season here, perhaps MLB has abandoned that. The earliest games begin at 1:05 p.m. EDT with 10 overall for DFS purposes. You may be focused on football, but don't forget about baseball DFS between now and when the World Series champs are crowned.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. WAS ($10,800): Nola has posted a 3.35 ERA, which is good, but his 2.64 FIP is even better. He's also striking out double-digit batters per nine innings for the fourth straight season. The Nationals are 25th in runs scored and no longer have two bats that played a key role in their offense.
Brandon Woodruff, MIL vs. CIN ($9,600): Woodruff has been a pretty good pitcher in general the last few years, but especially at home with a 2.49 ERA since 2020. Cincinnati sits 18th in offense and Woodruff should be able to handle that lineup.
Luis Garcia, HOU vs. LAA ($8,100): Garcia is enduring the worst season of his career, but his 3.99 ERA isn't too shabby and the 3.93 FIP is slightly better. The Angels may have Mike Trout, but they also rank 26th in runs scored and list a .294 team OBP. Beyond the top couple of bats, the Angels are fairly mediocre at the plate.
Top Targets
There's been less power than usual coming from Xander Bogaerts ($5,400) , but he's still slashed .318/.386/.473. The pop has been back recently with a 1.122 OPS the last three weeks. Rookie Kyle Bradish has struggled to a 6.46 home ERA and has allowed righties to hit .316 against.
Corey Seager ($5,300) has seen his slugging percentage drop, but he's also set a career high with 29 home runs. It's the doubles that have disappeared. That's more an issue on the road, since Seager maintains a .927 OPS at home. The Blue Jays are expected to trot out Jose Berrios on Sunday with his 5.23 ERA while giving up 1.72 home runs per nine innings.
Bargain Bats
A guy who swings for the fences is often a shrewd choice for a bargain bat, and that's who Rowdy Tellez ($4,900) is. He's only hit .224, but he's also crushed 28 homers. The lefty has also registered an .805 OPS versus righties and a .908 at home. Justin Dunn has been a disaster in six starts as a Red with a 7.57 FIP to go along with allowing 2.89 home runs per nine innings.
In his rookie campaign, Nolan Gorman ($4,100) has hit all 14 of his home runs against righties and has produced a .786 road OPS. Mitch Keller actually doesn't give up a lot of long balls, but still has posted a career 5.24 ERA. How? Maybe because lefties have hit .300 against the last couple campaigns.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies vs. Nationals (Anibal Sanchez): Kyle Schwarber ($5,400), Rhys Hoskins ($5,100), Bryson Stott ($3,400)
Sanchez's last few starts have gone pretty well. He also still has a 6.30 FIP after a 5.45 in 2020, the last season he pitched. I don't think the 38-year-old pitcher suddenly regained some old magic given that he hasn't been a viable pitcher this decade.
Schwarber definitely need to face a righty as 28 of his 37 home runs have come in those matchups. He also maintains an .876 OPS versus right-handed pitchers the last three seasons. Hoskins admittedly does better against lefties, but has an .877 OPS at home since 2020. He's also launched 27 homers this year and 19 have come against righties, so it's not like he lacks success on that front. The rookie Stott has racked up nine home runs and eight steals to go with an .895 OPS the last three weeks.
Guardians at Twins (Aaron Sanchez): Andres Gimenez ($4,800), Josh Naylor ($4,000), Oscar Gonzalez ($3,600)
Two Sanchezes on the mound, both offering an opportunity. This one is tentatively penciled in to start, though whoever takes the mounds for the Twins will be a righty that is - at best - an average pitcher. Let's focus on Aaron with his a 6.54 ERA this season and career 4.31 FIP.
Gimenez's breakout campaign has seen him hit .300 with 15 home runs and 18 stolen bases. And if a lefty happens to appear at any point, he's posted an .859 OPS versus his fellow southpaws. Naylor is more reliant on facing righties as his .852 OPS will show. And he's done well on the road with an .838 mark. The rookie Gonzalez has produced an .871 OPS the last three weeks and has been better on the road with an .852.
Astros vs. Angels (Tucker Davidson): Jose Altuve ($6,000), Alex Bregman ($5,400), Jeremy Pena ($4,300)
The Braves gave up on Davidson, and it's understandable considering his career 5.63 ERA. In five starts with the Angels, that number sits at 6.39. Davidson's a lefty, so I'm going with three righties.
This matchup is directly in Altuve's wheelhouse with a 1.083 OPS versus southpaws and a .948 at home. Bregman has recorded an .846 OPS the last 21 days and at home that climbs to 1.002. The freshman shortstop Pena has slowed down, but has 17 homers and nine stolen bases. He's also hit better against lefties with a .722 OPS.
