Hitter Regression Candidates for 2026

The three guys listed below were all top-20 fantasy players in 2025, according to RotoWire's Earned Auction Values tool. Few, if any, expect them to finish that high again in 2026, but how far are they likely to fall?

George Springer, OF, Blue Jays

Hitters don't usually have bounceback seasons in their mid-thirties, particularly when they've shown a steady decline in performance for several years. Springer bucked the trend in 2025, putting up one of the best seasons of his career in his age-35 campaign.

In terms of xwOBA, no one had a bigger year-over-year improvement than Springer's jump from .321 to .405. As you can see from the image below taken from Baseball Savant, only Geraldo Perdomo — who we will get to in a minute — was remotely close. Springer's .405 xwOBA was the fourth-best mark in baseball, ranking just ahead of Kyle Schwarber and behind only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani.

New Blue Jays hitting coach David Popkins had a plan in place to increase his team's bat speed, and Springer was one of many on the roster to experience a huge improvement, going from 71.9 mph in 2024 to 73.7 mph in 2025. Springer swung the bat much harder while maintaining his superb plate discipline, as he sported an 11.8 percent walk rate, 18.9 percent strikeout rate and career-low 20.4 percent chase rate. Unsurprisingly, the combination of these two things meant Springer made lots of loud contact, as his 47.6 percent hard-hit rate, 16.1 percent barrel rate and 90 mph average exit velocity all represented new career highs.

The data says what Springer did in 2025 is repeatable. Common sense tells us it's not. Of the five players listed above on the xwOBA improvement leaderboard, Springer is the only one in his thirties, and he will be heading into his age-36 season in 2026. If you expand the list to the top 10, only Josh Bell (33) and Will Smith (30) are also in their thirties.

The Blue Jays have already essentially made Springer a full-time designated hitter, and that could help keep him healthy in 2026. He's also going to hit leadoff again for what promises to be a very good Toronto offense, and he remains useful from a stolen base perspective even in his advancing age. And yet, the number I keep coming back to is 36, as in 36 years of age.

Those that have participated in NFBC drafts also see a clear regression candidate, as Springer's ADP currently sits at 103.6, making him the 24th outfielder off the board. That's after he finished as the No. 12 overall fantasy player in 2025, per RotoWire's Earned Auction Values. I can't begrudge anyone for taking Springer at that point in their draft, but I'm just not going to be the one to click on his name.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs

The PCA regression already happened in the final two months of the 2025 season:

It didn't count for fantasy purposes, but Crow-Armstrong's fade continued in the postseason, as well, as he went just 5-for-27 with a 1:12 BB:K against the Padres and Brewers. Because the 23-year-old was so good in the first four months of the season, he still was able to finish as the No. 15 overall fantasy player and No. 6 outfielder.

Crow-Armstrong upped his hard-hit rate from 36.8 percent to 41.6 percent and his barrel rate from 7.4 percent to 13 percent year-over-year, while his strikeout rate (23.9 percent to 24.0 percent) was essentially unchanged. However, PCA's 41.7 percent chase rate — which ranked in the 2nd percentile — eventually caught up to him. He also became way too pull-happy down the stretch, sporting a 56.3 percent pull rate from August onward after that mark sat at 46 percent for the first four months of the season.

Working in Crow-Armstrong's favor is that he's an elite defender in center field, and he's also such a good base stealer that he should continue to be among the league leaders in that regard even if he's also among the worst regulars in terms of getting on base. I could see him taking a big step backward from a power perspective in 2026, though, and the Cubs might sit the left-handed batter more often versus lefties after he failed to show progress against them in 2025, slashing just .188/.217/.376 with a 29.3 percent strikeout rate.

Crow-Armstrong's ADP in NFBC leagues is 30.2, and he's the ninth outfielder off the board. That's not enough of a discount for me for a guy with bottom-out potential.

Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks

Perdomo emerged as one of the most unlikely fantasy studs in recent memory in 2025, going from undrafted in most leagues to the No. 16 overall player and No. 3 shortstop in fantasy.

The 26-year-old was a perfectly solid real-life player prior to this past season because he played good defense at shortstop and drew a lot of walks. However, a career .235/.327/.330 batting line and per-162 game averages of 5.7 home runs and 13.7 stolen bases understandably wasn't drawing much attention in fantasy circles.

Perdomo's batted-ball data prior to the 2025 season was also among the weakest in baseball for an everyday player. It was significantly better this past season, though it still didn't seem to match up with the kind of numbers he put up.

All three of the metrics above — while clear improvements in 2025 over what Perdomo had done previously — ranked in the 25th percentile or worse. That said, while the quality of contact gains were modest, Perdomo also paired them with plate discipline that was better than ever, with a 13.1 percent walk rate and just an 11.5 percent strikeout rate. Among qualifiers, his 1.13 BB:K was bested only by Luis Arraez.

Perdomo also isn't a fast runner, having never ranked higher than the 48th percentile in sprint speed during his four full major-league seasons. He is an efficient base stealer, swiping bags at an 81.8 percent success rate in 2025 and 82.4 percent success rate in his career. The larger bases and new pickoff rule have made it easier than ever to put up big stolen-base totals, but it's not necessarily something that will be sticky from year to year for a guy with mediocre speed.

Perdomo is a good bet to be a tremendous batting average asset again in 2026, but he might need 700-plus plate appearances again to accumulate enough counting stats to avoid a large drop-off. He's got an NFBC ADP just inside 80, which bakes in likely regression, but probably not enough.