Farm Futures: Rookie Pitcher Rankings 1.0

Farm Futures: Rookie Pitcher Rankings 1.0

This article is part of our Farm Futures series.

  • Rankings and tiers are for 2024 fantasy value only
  • Only pitchers with fewer than 50 innings and fewer than 45 days on the active roster were considered
  • ADP is from NFBC 15-team Draft Champions (19 drafts worth of data)
  • I've included my player shares through four Draft Champions
  • Rookie Hitter Rankings were posted last week

There's no sugarcoating how volatile this market is. I'm bullish on many young pitchers who are still somewhat unproven like Gavin Williams, Brandon Pfaadt, Bryce Miller, Shane Baz, Emmet Sheehan and Louie Varland, but none of them are prospect eligible. 

We don't know which pitching prospects will stay healthy and log significant big-league innings in 2024, but we know some will. This should be useful to those in draft-and-hold leagues, but it could also be useful in-season when many of these prospects will be getting the call for their big-league debuts. I doubt we'll have the same quantity of high-end pitching prospects debuting in 2024 as we had in 2023, but there's no doubt MLB teams are more aggressive with getting their best young pitchers to the majors than they used to be.

No subset of players can move the needle from a value standpoint more (in my opinion) in spring training than pitching prospects. With less than a month before the season, we get to see their pitch velocities, stuff metrics and high-quality video of their pitch movement. Plus we get to see how they stack up against the

  • Rankings and tiers are for 2024 fantasy value only
  • Only pitchers with fewer than 50 innings and fewer than 45 days on the active roster were considered
  • ADP is from NFBC 15-team Draft Champions (19 drafts worth of data)
  • I've included my player shares through four Draft Champions
  • Rookie Hitter Rankings were posted last week

There's no sugarcoating how volatile this market is. I'm bullish on many young pitchers who are still somewhat unproven like Gavin Williams, Brandon Pfaadt, Bryce Miller, Shane Baz, Emmet Sheehan and Louie Varland, but none of them are prospect eligible. 

We don't know which pitching prospects will stay healthy and log significant big-league innings in 2024, but we know some will. This should be useful to those in draft-and-hold leagues, but it could also be useful in-season when many of these prospects will be getting the call for their big-league debuts. I doubt we'll have the same quantity of high-end pitching prospects debuting in 2024 as we had in 2023, but there's no doubt MLB teams are more aggressive with getting their best young pitchers to the majors than they used to be.

No subset of players can move the needle from a value standpoint more (in my opinion) in spring training than pitching prospects. With less than a month before the season, we get to see their pitch velocities, stuff metrics and high-quality video of their pitch movement. Plus we get to see how they stack up against the best hitters in the world. There will be pitchers who jump 100-plus spots worth of ADP in the spring and there will be others who suffer season-ending injuries before the regular season starts, that's just the nature of pitching prospects. 

Big-League Experience I

1. Kyle Harrison, LHP, Giants, ADP: 249

Harrison is the only pitching prospect for a decent team that I feel confident projecting to make his team's rotation out of camp. He showed much better control vs. human umps in the majors than he did against robo umps at Triple-A, which is intuitive, especially given his high-strikeout approach and specific arsenal (high four-seamers, sliders out of the zone, etc...). I haven't drafted Harrison yet, but I'm pretty comfortable with the idea of taking him in the mid-200s. There's significant upside, and at worst he'd be usable in home starts as long as he's healthy.

Premium Stashes

2. Paul Skenes, RHP, PIT, ADP: 278 (Shares: 1/4)

Nobody knows when Skenes, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, will make his big-league debut. He won't have much of a workload restriction in 2024, given he threw almost 130 innings last year. For this reason, I wouldn't rule out Skenes making the rotation out of camp. If around March 20, Skenes has been one of, if not the best, Pirates starter in spring training, there's no real reason to Double-A or Triple-A, especially considering he could win NL Rookie of the Year and net the Pirates a 2025 draft pick. Johan Oviedo's Tommy John surgery means there's one more spot up for grabs. All that said, the guy Skenes gets compared to most, Stephen Strasburg, made 11 starts in the upper minors before getting the call in 2010. It's possible Skenes goes to the minors, dominates and makes 20 starts in the majors, and it's also possible he heads to the minors, suffers a serious injury and doesn't pitch at all in the majors next season. The range of outcomes here is vast.

3. Cade Horton, RHP, CHC, ADP: 387 (Shares: 1/4)

Horton, who had Tommy John surgery in 2021, built up to 88.1 innings last year, and at times he was utterly dominant at High-A and Double-A. He has a four-pitch mix headlined by an upper-90s fastball and a 70-grade slider. Horton is a better prospect at this stage of his development than guys like Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff were when Craig Counsell's Brewers broke those guys in out of the bullpen, but we can't rule out a similar developmental approach with Horton. However, I'd bet he's up and in the big-league rotation by May or June, health permitting. 

4. Jackson Jobe, RHP, DET, ADP: 425

To me, Jobe is the clear No. 2 best pitching prospect in baseball behind Skenes, and he's closer to Skenes than he is whoever I end up slotting at No. 3 (Horton and Harrison are the leading candidates). However, Jobe, who turns 22 in July, only made one start at Double-A and tallied 79.2 innings total last season. The Tigers won 78 games last year, and they'll surely try to push up above .500 this season. Bringing up Jobe in the first half would align with that goal. He's talented enough that he could even make noise in spring training, but the Tigers have enough guys in the mix that Jobe would really have to separate himself and there'd probably need to be an injury to someone ahead of him.

Big-League Experience II

5. AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP, ATL, ADP: 353

I'd take Smith-Shawver over Horton and Jobe in a draft-and-hold, but for the sake of the tiers, it felt better to organize things this way. Smith-Shawver even reaching the big leagues last year was a long shot. Given his age (21) and rapid rise through the minors, Smith-Shawver is a complete wild card from a projection standpoint. There's just so few instances in recent history of pitching prospects this young competing for a rotation spot on a team this good. Maybe Atlanta adds a veteran starter or two and has better health luck than in 2023 and Smith-Shawver only makes a dozen starts in the majors, but he's also got a chance to make 20-plus starts. I love the upside for the cost.

6. Mason Miller, RHP, OAK, ADP: 274

How many times in 2024 will Miller start a game for the A's and go five-plus innings? Out that presumably low number of starts, how many times will he get a win while pitching for this horrific team? It's possible that you draft Miller, he logs significantly more innings than I'd feel comfortable projecting, say 120, and you still end up with fewer than five wins from him. Everyone knows Miller has great stuff, and he should post strong ratios with a high strikeout rate while he's healthy.

7. Gavin Stone, RHP, LAD, ADP: 439 (Shares: 2/4)

Stone fell on his face against big-league hitters, and the big-league numbers (6.64 FIP, 1.90 WHIP) and Pacific Coast League numbers (4.52 FIP, 1.31 WHIP) are pretty ugly for a pitcher we're considering in the top 450 for 2024. However, he showed signs of looking like the 2022 version and 2023 spring training version of himself down the stretch. He had a 1.73 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in his final 26 innings at Triple-A and had a 3.52 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 10 strikeouts in 7.2 innings over his final two big-league appearances. It's a tiny sample and the competition at Triple-A was pretty watered down when he was having that late-season success. However, Stone, whose changeup is his best pitch and who has shown he can handle a starter's workload, isn't the type of arm you move to the bullpen until you've exhausted all efforts to develop him as a starter. His team context is obviously elite and he was my No. 25 overall prospect in March of 2023. He's a prime post-hype sleeper at this price.

8. Max Meyer, RHP, MIA, ADP: 456 (Shares: 1/4)

Meyer has a nice home park, but last year, Jesus Luzardo led all Marlins starters with 10 wins and he needed 32 starts to get there. It seems irresponsible to project Meyer for more than five or six wins, given that this will be his first season back from Tommy John surgery and his run support will likely be in the bottom half of the league. As things stand, he'll head to spring training as the sixth starter on Miami's depth chart, but everyone in the rotation is young and Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera are hardly reliable. I expect Meyer to make 15-20 starts in the majors, health permitting.

9. Kyle Hurt, RHP, LAD, ADP: 519

Is Hurt a starter or reliever long term? That's still very much up in the air, but there's no denying the quality of his stuff. Unlike Stone, Hurt's got the high-octane fastball for high-leverage relief work if the Dodgers opt to go that route, but I assume they'll keep developing him as a starter in 2024. He could be in a similar role to Ryan Pepiot this past season, splitting time between Triple-A and the majors while working in whatever role is needed when he's up with the big club.

Stashes II

10. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, TOR, ADP: 321

I'm not going anywhere near Tiedemann at cost. He has primarily dealt with nerve damage rather than ligament damage, but the durability red flags are still glaring. Excluding the Arizona Fall League, where he logged 18 innings in four starts, we have to go back to July 1, 2022 to find the last time Tiedemann logged five innings in a start. His offspeed stuff, particularly his slider, is elite and Toronto has a need in the rotation, but I don't expect him up until June. He's probably not going to throw enough in the spring to be a realistic threat to break camp, and it'll likely be a careful build up at Triple-A in April and May. 

11. Jared Jones, RHP, PIT, ADP: 513 (Shares: 4/4)

A year ago, I had Jones pegged as a potential closer long term, but he blew away my expectations last season and now I think he can be a high-strikeout starter if he maintains his current trajectory and stays healthy. He was a little unlucky at Triple-A (68.4 LOB%, .319 BABIP), but the main metric that impressed me was his 9.7 BB% over 82 innings as a 22-year-old in the highest level of the minors. That may not seem like a strong mark, but for a young pitcher with Jones' electric arsenal (upper-90s fastball, upper-80s slider), it was better than I was expecting. He'll be at Triple-A for at least another month or two, but he'll join Skenes in the big-league rotation sometime in the first half with good health.

12. Will Warren, RHP, NYY, ADP: 532 (Shares: 2/4)

The Yankees arguably have more legitimate upper-level pitching prospects than any other team, and Warren offers the best combination of upside and proximity. His 70-grade sweeper had a 20.6 SwStr% and his high-spin four-seamer touched 97 mph at Triple-A. He dominated down the stretch last year and is big-league ready. It's impossible to say how many Yankees starters will be healthy late in spring training, but Warren should be the first prospect to get a shot if he's healthy and there is a need.

13. Robert Gasser, LHP, MIL, ADP: 483

What Gasser lacks in quality offerings (zero plus pitches, 92-mph average fastball velocity) he makes up for in quantity -- he threw over 100 four-seamers, changeups, curveballs, cutters, sinkers, sliders and sweepers at Triple-A. It's a pretty similar profile to Eric Lauer, whom the Brewers got in the same Josh Hader trade as Gasser. I'd take the over on 20 MLB starts for Gasser if you guaranteed me good health, but he lacks the type of upside I'm looking for in a pitching prospect with no MLB experience.

14. Hurston Waldrep, RHP, ATL, ADP: 509 (Shares: 1/4)

There were rumors Waldrep was in consideration to make his big-league debut late last season, just weeks after he was drafted, amid all the injuries that hit Atlanta's rotation. Waldrep was my second-favorite pitcher (behind Skenes) in the 2023 draft, and now that is seeming like a consensus. His splitter is a 70- or 80-grade offering, and it all comes down to whether he can throw enough strikes -- that was the knock for most of his college career although he peaked at the right time as a junior. This is a boom-or-bust stash.

15. Joey Cantillo, LHP, CLE, ADP: 664 (Shares: 3/4)

It's tough to say how much of Cantillo's 12.9 BB% at Triple-A was due to the automated balls and strikes system, as he also had a 14.4 BB% at Double-A. The 6-foot-4 southpaw's control could end up relegating him to a bullpen role long term. However, he's in a great developmental org., has a pretty clear path to the rotation, assuming Cleveland trades Shane Bieber, and has pretty loud stuff. Cantillo touched 98 mph with his fastball last season while averaging 93.5 mph. He also had a SwStr% north of 20 percent on both his changeup (26.1%) and slider (20.7%). He's one of the best draft-and-hold values in the entire player pool.

16. Robby Snelling, LHP, SD, ADP: 630 (Shares: 4/4)

I was worried about how musclebound Snelling was as a prep prospect, but he made a believer out of me with a very impressive first full season, climbing to Double-A as a 19-year-old. The 6-foot-3 lefty has a mid-90s fastball, plus curveball and average changeup, but it's his competitiveness, command and pitchability that really stand out, especially given his youth. As things currently stand, San Diego has Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, both of whom finished the year on the shelf with arm injuries, and then a bunch of long reliever types vying for the final three spots in the rotation. We know A.J. Preller is aggressive with promoting his best prospects, so I could see Snelling joining the big-league rotation sometime in the first half. He threw 103.2 innings last year, so pushing up to 150 innings seems reasonable for 2024.

Relievers I

17. Ben Joyce, RHP, LAA, ADP: 483

If you don't already know, Joyce has an average fastball velocity of 101 mph and he can touch higher. The Angels don't seem to have any intentions of trying to contend, so if Joyce throws enough strikes and stays healthy (two big if's), he could ascend to the ninth inning if Carlos Estevez (in the final year of his contract) gets traded or loses the job. 

18. Orion Kerkering, RHP, PHI, ADP: 437

If I had to predict where Craig Kimbrel signs, it'd be back with the Phillies to once again share the ninth inning with Jose Alvarado. However, Kerkering would be on the short list of Philllies relievers to get a look in the ninth inning if it is up for grabs at any point in 2024. Joyce is the better bet for 10-plus saves, but Kerkering is the better bet to be useable (healthy and productive) throughout the season.

Big-League Experience III

19. Keaton Winn, RHP, SF, ADP: 483

Essentially a non-prospect heading into 2023, Winn threw his 89-mph splitter 55 percent of the time and his 96-mph fastball 41 percent of the time in his 42.1 MLB innings. It's an odd pitch mix, especially for a righty, but it worked OK for him while splitting time between working as a traditional starter and bulk reliever. He's a useful draft-and-hold option, especially given his home park.

20. Joe Boyle, RHP, OAK, ADP: 429

Boyle has always had loud stuff, but he didn't have good enough command to even project as a ninth-inning arm, let alone a starter. He was good one time through the lineup against the Padres and then logged wins against the Tigers and Angels in late-September. I'd use Boyle at home against teams like the Tigers and Angels in 2024, but I wouldn't use him on the road without more of a sample against big-league hitters, and it's possible his command woes (17.8 BB% in the minors last year) resurface in spring training and he doesn't even make the big-league rotation.

21. Sawyer Gipson-Long, RHP, DET, ADP: 299

Gipson-Long was being more severely over-drafted than any other pitching prospect, and while his ADP will fall after the Kenta Maeda signing, he's still going to be over-drafted. Just because I didn't have him ranked at all on the top 400 prior to his debut doesn't mean he won't be good, but it's illustrative of his prospect pedigree and the way many scouts viewed him prior to his debut. His four big-league starts in September came against the White Sox, Angels, Athletics and Royals. I'd happily deploy him in 2024 against any of those teams if he's in the rotation, but he won't be in the Opening Day rotation and I wouldn't use him against most big-league teams. 

22. Cade Cavalli, RHP, WAS, ADP: 676 (Shares: 2/4)

Cavalli has a horrible team context (hitter's park, terrible run support, bad defense) and is returning from March 2023 Tommy John surgery, but he's a lock to be in the Nationals' rotation once fully healthy and stretched out. He's also got a better combination of pedigree and stuff than anyone else in this tier, just know he won't be back until around midseason.

Stashes III

23. Mike Vasil, RHP, NYM, ADP: 628 (Shares: 1/4)

Vasil has No. 4 starter stuff with a No. 1 starter mindset. He has a plus mid-80s slider (sometimes classified as a cutter) and a 92-96 mph fastball and pitched 73 innings at Triple-A last year (124 innings total), so he won't need many more minor-league starts if he impresses early this year. The 6-foot-5 righty was affected by the robo umps at Triple-A, but he projects to have good enough command to start. Any competent Mets starter is streamable at home, so you could plug Vasil into your lineup at least a half dozen times if he joins the rotation in the first half.

24. Tekoah Roby, RHP, STL, ADP: 622

Roby, who was sent to St. Louis from Texas in the Jordan Montgomery trade, has an excellent four-pitch repertoire, although he has struggled to stay healthy at times. He can touch 97 mph with his fastball, but his curveball is his best pitch, and he definitely has the command to start. Roby threw 72 innings across Double-A and the Arizona Fall League, so the Cardinals probably won't push him much past 120 innings this year. Hopefully they slow play him early in the year and then build him up in May/June before he potentially joins the big-league rotation midseason.

25. Drew Thorpe, RHP, NYY, ADP: 516

Thorpe might have the prettiest minor-league stats of anyone in this tier, but he's also the least likely to be up early in 2024, just given the amount of arms I assume are ahead of him on the depth chart. He was drafted in the second round in 2022 and dominated across 18 starts at High-A and five starts at Double-A in 2023. Thorpe reminds me a little of the prospect version of Chris Paddack from a stuff (low-to-mid-90s fastball, best pitch is his changeup) and statistical dominance standpoint, although Thorpe has a better breaking ball than Paddack did at the same stage.

26. Christian Scott, RHP, NYM, ADP: 635

Scott turns 25 in June and hasn't reached Triple-A yet, but he was masterful last season at High-A and Double-A. Scott's BB% was below five percent at every stop in 2023, while his K% was north of 30 percent. Statistically, he really stands out, although his command, particularly his ability to command his plus mid-90s fastball, is what led to all that success. His offspeed stuff is just OK. Still, whenever a pitching prospect has this level of strike-throwing ability, they've got a chance to outperform their raw stuff.

27. David Festa, RHP, MIN, ADP: 571

Festa sits at 95 mph with his four-seamer and has two above-average offerings in his slider and changeup. The 6-foot-6 righty finished the year with three starts at Triple-A, where robo umps contributed to a 16.7 BB%. His 9.6 BB% at Double-A was still higher than I'd like for a 23-year-old. Louie Varland is obviously the preferred option, but Festa could join the big-league rotation in the summer if he can improve his control.

Big-League Experience IV

28. Jordan Wicks, LHP, CHC, ADP: 459

Wicks is a fifth or sixth starter in the majors, and if the Cubs sign or trade for any free agent starters, he could be ticketed for Triple-A to start the year. I'd assume he makes around 15 starts, so he's basically just an emergency innings eater on draft-and-hold teams that you can stream against offenses like the Pirates or Brewers.

29. Connor Phillips, RHP, CIN, ADP: 496

I don't really get the fantasy appeal with Phillips, at least in the short term. He had a 16.9 BB% at Triple-A and a 13.5 BB% in the majors and will pitch half his games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. Of course he has good stuff, but similarly to Boyle, it's not good enough command to start and maybe not even good enough command to close, not that he'd unseat Alexis Diaz in the short term anyway. He's almost surely ticketed for Triple-A to start the year as well.

30. Slade Cecconi, RHP, ARI, ADP: 730

Cecconi was one of my favorite college arms in the 2020 draft, but he hasn't developed as well as I hoped. He has good command and made four starts in the majors last year, and it's worth noting that Arizona's Double-A and Triple-A affiliates have extreme hitter's parks. They might add a starter this offseason, but as things stand, Cecconi could battle Tommy Henry for the fifth starter's spot in camp.

31. Davis Daniel, RHP, LAA, ADP: 692

Daniel apparently looked pretty good in the Arizona Fall League, where he logged a 1.89 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 25 strikeouts in 19 innings. It's back-end starter stuff and the Angels figure to be pretty terrible, but I could see him getting 15-plus starts, even with them going to a five-man rotation.

32. Luis Gil, RHP, NYY, ADP: 680

I adored full-strength Gil's fastball/slider combo. He returned late last season from Tommy John surgery to make a couple two-inning rehab appearances. Gil's fastball averaged 95.6 mph and touched 98.5 mph, which is right where he was at pre-injury. There are obvious reasons Gil could end up a reliever, but I still think there's a high ceiling to go with a ton of risk.

33. Darius Vines, RHP, ATL, ADP: 625

Vines has a great changeup and pitches for a great team. Beyond that, there's not a ton to get excited about, but we've seen Atlanta get the most of its homegrown pitchers in recent years. He threw his 85-mph cutter as much as his 90-mph fastball and he has good enough command to be a back-end starter.

34. Randy Vasquez, RHP, NYY, ADP: 739 (Shares: 1/4)

Vasquez is a reliever or spot starter with the Yankees, but he could start for a rebuilding club if he got traded. He throws a bunch of pitches, but his cutter and sweeper particularly have a ton of spin, and his fastball is OK (94.4 average mph). I like that he'll probably be up for most of the year and there's the upside that he gets traded into another team's rotation.

35. Jacob Lopez, LHP, TB, ADP: 707

On most teams, Lopez would fit better in the Honorable Mention tier, but this is the Rays. As things stand, he might be seventh on the starting pitching depth chart entering the year, and last year we saw over half Tampa Bay's Opening Day rotation suffer serious arm injuries. Despite not being a spin monster, Lopez's slider had a 41.4 Whiff%, but his fastball averaged 91 mph.

36. Allan Winans, RHP, ATL, ADP: 708

Winans came out of nowhere to have success in three of his six big-league starts last year. He's a fringe prospect who is only notable because of how good his team is. He's unlikely to be used much as a big-league starter unless Atlanta deals with a bunch of injuries again, but if he gets starts against bad teams, he can be streamed for wins.

37. Emerson Hancock, RHP, SEA, ADP: 555

I've never been a Hancock guy, and he ended last season on the shelf with a serious shoulder injury. He's a potential back-end starter who could be useful as a streamer against teams like the Athletics and Angels, particularly at home or in Oakland. 

38. Yoendrys Gomez, RHP, NYY, ADP: Undrafted

Gomez has missed a ton of time with arm injuries, but he was healthy from late-May on last year and made his big-league debut with a two-inning relief appearance. He is out of minor-league options, and while he has enough pitches to start, he'd likely be pitching out of the bullpen for the Yankees if they carry him all offseason. If he got traded to a team like the Padres, however, he could be in the Opening Day rotation.

Relievers II

39. Prelander Berroa, RHP, SEA, ADP: 688 (Shares: 1/4)

The Mariners always seem to have an exciting relief-pitching prospect waiting in the wings. Berroa has really nasty stuff and should spend the majority of the season in the majors, although he's unlikely to get save chances as long as Andres Munoz and Matt Brash are healthy.

40. John McMillon, RHP, KC, ADP: 691 (Shares: 1/4)

McMillon, who averaged 99 mph on his fastball last year, ended the year on the shelf with a forearm strain, so it's possible his arm starts barking in the spring and we don't see him at all in 2024. However, if he's healthy, he arguably has the best stuff in the Royals' bullpen.

Stashes IV

41. Mason Black, RHP, SF, ADP: 657

As with many Giants pitchers, the most appealing thing about Black is his future home park. Mostly a sinker/slider righty, Black can reach back for mid-90s gas, but none of his pitches are consistently plus. He made 13 starts at Triple-A but is not yet on the 40-man roster.

42. Carlos F. Rodriguez, RHP, MIL, ADP: 681 (Shares: 1/4)

I understand why Robert Gasser gets drafted ahead of Rodriguez, but I don't understand why Jacob Misiorowski does. Rodriguez climbed to Triple-A for one start after making 25 starts at Double-A. There's some long-term relief risk, as is the case with most of the pitchers in this tier, but the Brewers should have a rotation spot or two available this summer, especially if they trade Corbin Burnes, as I expect they will. 

43. Cade Povich, LHP, BAL, ADP: 742 (Shares: 1/4)

The Orioles have quickly become one of my most trusted teams when it comes to getting the most out of starting pitchers. They've got a pitcher-friendly park, a great defense and an offense that keeps getting better, so it's a great situation for pitcher wins. Povich throws the kitchen sink at hitters, mixing in upwards of five different pitches that have average spin rates of 2,300 RPM or higher. The 6-foot-3 lefty isn't on the 40-man roster, but after making 10 starts at Triple-A, I expect him to debut this year. The big thing he needs to improve is his control.

44. Nick Nastrini, RHP, CHW, ADP: 704 (Shares: 1/4)

The White Sox keep acquiring cheap, mediocre rotation candidates, so Nastrini's path to the rotation isn't as clear as it was at the beginning of the offseason. However, he's got big-time strikeout stuff, albeit with poor command and control. He's much more appealing to me than guys like Jake Eder and Cristian Mena, but I'd rather have Michael Soroka or Jared Shuster for 2024.

45. Jairo Iriarte, RHP, SD, ADP: 730

As with Snelling, a big part of the appeal here is the Padres' depth chart. Presumably they'll add some starting pitching depth this winter, but they'd need to add at least two or three capable big-league starters to properly fill out the depth chart. Iriarte, who is already on the 40-man roster and climbed to Double-A last year, has really nasty stuff but shaky command, so there's plenty of reliever risk.

46. Ben Brown, RHP, CHC, ADP: 676

I've got Brown pegged as a reliever long term due to his below-average command and control. He has loud stuff, is on the 40-man roster and logged 72.2 innings at Triple-A, so if he were to show up to camp this year with significantly improved command, anything would be on the table. It's likely he makes most or all his MLB appearances as a rookie out of the bullpen or as a spot starter.

47. Clayton Beeter, RHP, NYY, ADP: 751 (Shares: 1/4)

Seemingly nobody talks about Beeter, but I was really impressed with how he closed the year at Triple-A, and the Yankees rewarded him with a spot on the 40-man roster. Robo umps played a role in his 13.9 percent walk rate, but his command is still his biggest weakness. He mostly leaned on his 93-mph four-seamer (touches 97 mph) and high-spin low-80s slider, but Beeter can get whiffs on all four of his offerings. 

48. Bubba Chandler, RHP, PIT, ADP: Undrafted

Chandler is one of my favorite pitching prospects in baseball, and the sky is the limit long term. He was excellent down the stretch last year and made one start at Double-A to close out his age-20 season. It's more likely the Pirates give him another full season in the minors, but he's so good that he needs to be at least mentioned as a candidate to come up and make some starts in the second half.

49. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, MIL, ADP: 537

I'd never rule anything out with a pitcher whose stuff is as electric as Misiorowski's, but he doesn't profile as a quick-to-the-majors type. He's got a lot of moving parts in his delivery and his command is shaky at times. If he does make it up this year, I'd bet he makes most, if not all, of his appearances out of the bullpen before competing for a rotation spot in the spring of 2025. 

50. Rhett Lowder, RHP, CIN, ADP: 735

Lowder was a high-floor, quick-to-the-majors type of college starter when the Reds selected him in the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft. He hasn't made his pro debut yet, but it's conceivable that he could be assigned to Double-A and pitch his way to the majors this summer.

Honorable Mention:

Wilmer Flores (DET), Will Dion (CLE), Chase Hampton (NYY), Chase Petty (CIN), Ty Madden (DET), Chayce McDermott (BAL), Seth Johnson (BAL), Nick Frasso (LAD), Mason Barnett (KC), Mick Abel (PHI), Brandon Walter (BOS), Jackson Wolf (PIT), Joey Estes (OAK), Mason Montgomery (TB), Landon Knack (LAD), Emiliano Teodo (TEX), Royber Salinas (OAK), Jack Leiter (TEX), Jake Eder (CHW), Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN), Tink Hence (STL), Julian Aguiar (CIN), Cooper Hjerpe (STL), Braxton Ashcraft (PIT), Adam Kloffenstein (STL), Richard Fitts (NYY), Matt Sauer (NYY), Owen White (TEX), Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS), Carson Whisenhunt (SF), DJ Herz (WAS)

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James Anderson
James Anderson is RotoWire's Lead Prospect Analyst, Assistant Baseball Editor, and co-host of Farm Fridays on Sirius/XM radio and the RotoWire Prospect Podcast.
MLB Futures: Home Run Leaders and Head-to-Head HR Picks
MLB Futures: Home Run Leaders and Head-to-Head HR Picks
Farm Futures: Spring Training Prospect Mailbag
Farm Futures: Spring Training Prospect Mailbag
Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL Central
Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL Central
Four Clear Trends From EARTH ADP
Four Clear Trends From EARTH ADP