Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The Barometer last week discussed a hitting prospect from the 2024 Draft making waves in the form of Jac Caglianone, and we'll now analyze a hurler from the same class who is also excelling.  Chase Burns continues to dominate the competition in the Cincinnati organization. While High-A may have been too easy of a starting point for the second overall selection, he's also found little resistance since being bumped to Double-A with a miniscule 1.86 ERA and absurd 45:3 K:BB in 29 innings while the opposition is hitting .204 against. Burns has been pumping strikes, though also continues to miss bats at an incredible rate. His last start may have been his best as a pro as he fanned 10 across five innings while allowing one run on three hits. Burns has yet to go more than five frames in any contest, so the next step will be attempting to go deeper. Despite the Reds exercising caution with his workload, he could probably be pitching in the bigs right now.  Burns could join a very short list of starting pitchers who ascended all the way to the Majors the year after being drafted.

Let's take a look at some other neophytes in the new in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

See where future major league baseball starts slot into RotoWire's MLB Top Prospects & Rankings for 2025!

UPGRADE

Bryce Rainer, SS, DET – Another first-rounder from last year, Rainer is not quite as close as the aforementioned pair to the big leagues, but he's still impressed. At 19, he's slashing .279/.381/.471 with five homers, 21 RBI and seven steals through 29 outings. Rainer may only be scratching the surface of his hitting potential as he split time on the mound prior to this season. He's already boosted his power and exit velocities from the left side with more room to fill out as he matures.  Rainer can also swipe a bag and is unafraid to take a walk. He offers the upside of a five-tool prospect and future star, even with plenty of depth ahead of him in the Tigers organization.

Braden Montgomery, OF, CHW – Montgomery was one of the many prospects that came over to Chicago in the Garrett Crochet deal, and he may boast the most upside of any of them. Also another former pitcher, he's displayed immense raw power, though that hasn't taken away from his ability to make contact between High-A and Double-A as he's hitting .299. Montgomery has also shown surprising speed with seven steals on top of seven home runs and 37 RBI.  Strikeouts will likely always be part of his profile, yet his punch-outs have been far from outrageous so far. The 22-year-old has little blocking his path, so it's not outside the realm of possibility Montgomery joins the White Sox this season, though 2026 is more likely.

Eduardo Quintero, OF, LAD – As if the Dodgers needed more young outfield prospects to go along with Zyhir Hope and Josue De Paula, Quintero is raking as a teenager at Low-A to begin 2025 having produced a .310/.410/.561 line with eight homers, 28 RBI and a staggering 21 swipes from 38 contests. The friendly hitting confines of the California League likely help his cause, though he's also posted similar numbers in both the Dominican Summer League and Arizona Complex League. The pop has been particularly notable for Quintero as he previously went deep eight times over 132 contests. If the power stroke is legitimate, his speed and advanced skills at the dish will catapult him up the prospect charts.

Brailer Guerrero, OF, TB – Guerrero is only 18, yet is more than holding his own at Low-A slashing .306/.404/.506 in 22 games at Low-A since returning from a lingering shoulder ailment. He's also recorded four home runs and six stolen bases during that stretch. The sample size is small and Guerrero has yet to prove he can stay healthy, but the profile alone deserves some notoriety with the potential to skyrocket if he can avoid the Injured List.

CHECK STATUS

Travis Sykora, P, WAS – Sykora is finally available again and looks primed for a monster campaign. After fanning 129 through 85 innings a season ago at Low-A, he was barely touched during four rehab starts - including his first appearance at High-A where he fanned nine in four innings while conceding one hit. The Nationals will likely be careful with Sykora as he continues to recover from offseason hip surgery, though the injuries and inconsistencies of fellow hurlers Jarlin Susana and Cade Cavalli have firmly placed him as Washington's top pitching prospect. In fact, an argument can be made Sykora is one of the top up-and-coming right-handers in all of baseball.

Payton Tolle, P, BOS – Hitting phenoms have gotten most of the publicity recently in the Red Sox organization, and perhaps rightly so. That being said, their system contains some pitching talent.  Tolle may be the best of the bunch as the mammoth southpaw was the Big 12 Pitcher of the Year at TCU and was selected 50th overall in 2024. His fastball plays up due to exceptional extension and an odd release height, though his secondary offerings have lagged behind in his development. Tolle was a two-way player up until last year, so the fact he needs additional pitch refinement isn't especially surprising. An imposing presence also helps his cause, and has led to 49:7 K:BB through 28.1 innings at High-A. A move up will be a better indicator towards Tolle's upcoming path and he's still been slightly hittable during his debut stint, but the Boston brass should certainly feel confident he can be a future contributor.

David Davalillo, P, TEX – Davalillo has baseball in his blood, yet has come from virtual anonymity to burst onto the prospect scene. He posted a 1.88 ERA and 113:32 K:BB across 110.1 innings during 2024, largely at Low-A. Davalillo has been even better so far at High-A with a 0.92 ERA and 55:7 K:BB through 39.1 frames. His best pitch is a splitter, though he's also demonstrated exceptional control with his fastball and the development of a slider/curveball. Davalillo also fanned 10 over six scoreless innings in his last outing. A complete arsenal has turned him into a hurler to watch, even if his individual pitches aren't necessarily exceptional on their own.

Jesus Rodriguez, C, NYY – Rodriguez still may be flying under the radar despite only batting around .300 once since entering the minors, and that was 2021 in the Dominican Summer League when he went a combined .294. He's steadily climbed the ranks with his contact skills and excellent handle of the strike zone. Through 31 Triple-A appearances, Rodriguez is hitting an absurd .376 with a .464 OBP and the same amount of walks as strikeouts (20). He's also swiped eight bags over that stretch. What prevents him from becoming an elite prospect is his lack of power with only 16 home runs across 320 pro contests. Rodriguez also doesn't have a surefire spot in the field since he's played almost every infield position during the last season. His bat-to-ball skills remain exceptional and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him join the Yankees if the club needs a jolt going into the postseason.

DOWNGRADE

Brandon Sproat, P, NYM – Sproat was one of the biggest risers last season, at least until he hit Triple-A as he recorded an ugly 7.53 ERA and 21:11 K:BB in 28.2 innings while batters hit .313 against. Unfortunately, a return to the same level has done little to aid the 24-year-old righty as he's struggled to a 6.31 ERA and 31:17 K:BB from 41.1 frames. Sproat has been able to keep the ball down, yet continues to get knocked around during most starts. While he may technically be ahead of Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong on the organizational depth chart, he may have fallen behind the duo in terms of prospect rank and overall upside.

James Triantos, 2B, CHC – Triantos batted .300 and swiped 47 bags between Double-A and Triple-A last year, but the beginning of 2025 hasn't been quite as productive at .250. He's picked up 11 steals, yet hasn't hit a homer to hurt his fantasy potential. Triantos is still making rather consistent contact, though hasn't been finding the holes. Given that a high average plays a big role in his value combined with a lack of walks, his stock is on the decline. Add in a glut of infielders, and Triantos may not have a spot to play even if he turns his season around.