MLB Picks and Props for Sunday, March 30
In the finale of this season-opening three-game series between the Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals, Andre Pallante gets the ball for the home side and will oppose Bailey Ober.
The latter starter is who we'll be analyzing and trying to profit from in the form of his strikeouts prop bet.
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While he may not be considered the best in Minnesota's starting rotation, there is a very real possibility Ober can take that title by season's end. That's no disrespect to Pablo Lopez or Joe Ryan – Ober is really that good.
Ober doesn't get widespread recognition but that will definitely be changing in the coming months after he's displayed notable potential throughout his first four seasons in the bigs.
The 6-foot-9 right-hander holds a career 3.76 ERA, and while that might not jump off the page, his career 1.07 WHIP and .228 batting average against certainly should.
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Last year was Ober's best season to date. He posted career bests across the board in wins (12), innings (178 2/3), WHIP (1.00), strikeouts (191) and BAA (.208).
Yes, he did finish with a 3.98 ERA to his name for the campaign, but Ober clearly pitched much better than that, as evidenced by his 3.22 xERA (Expected ERA). That is All-Star worthy.
Will that translate to an even better showing in 2025? It appears so.
Ober had a very nice spring training, one that saw him register a minuscule 1.77 ERA. Rather than his runs allowed, though, we're going to eye his strikeouts, something the 29-year-old possesses a talent with.
Three out of his four seasons in the big leagues, Ober has constructed a strikeout rate of more than a K per inning. Last year was his best such mark, stringing together 9.6 K/9.
With Ober on a nice trajectory in the right direction, I believe he starts this next rodeo on the right foot. St. Louis doesn't trot out the most dangerous batting order and it's one Ober can handle and put down with some punch-outs.
Pick: Bailey Ober Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128, FanDuel)
