The Z Files: Neutralizing Park Factors

Obviously, nothing has been determined. However, some of the scenarios being bandied about for MLB's return is for clubs to play somewhere other than their home cities and traditional venues. Be it the Florida/Arizona plan, the Arizona-only proposal or even playing overseas in Japan, an integral aspect of current player expectations would become moot: their numbers at home. For some, this is detrimental but for others, it could be an advantage.

Of course, this is only half the story. To fully adjust projections, the park factors for where the games will be played need to be considered. However, not only is the schedule unknown, it may not be possible to come up with credible factors, so stripping out expected home numbers is all we can do for now.

This is relevant as many leagues postponed their draft or auction, while brand new leagues are still forming. If you've yet to draft in one of your leagues, and the festivities are scheduled before MLB announces the plans, you'll need to decide how you want to alter expectations. Once things are official, we'll update everything, but until then, it's your call.

What follows is how an arbitrary hitter and pitcher would perform in all 30 MLB ball parks. That is, the stats if the season were played in a neutral park will be translated to each home venue and quantified for 15-team, mixed league play.

Hitters will be divided into lefty and righty swingers. Switch hitters face right-handed pitching about 72 percent of the time, so if you're interested in adjusting someone who hits from both sides of the plate, a good estimate is 75 percent of the left-handed difference. That is, if a lefty loses $4 of production, a switch hitter with the same stats loses around $3.

LEFT-HANDED BATTERS

The difference for 17 teams is plus or minus one buck, which is essentially nothing. To be honest, even $2 is hardly anything, especially in light of the series of spring essays I just did illustrating the flaws in valuation.

Most of the results are not surprising. However, unless you are really tuned into park factors, perhaps from playing in daily leagues, DFS or betting on games, a couple may raise an eyebrow. If asked which left-handed hitters would be most affected, not many would have identified Nationals batters. It will be interesting to see if Juan Soto's draft stock falls if games are played outside of standard venues.

Other surprises include a handful of venues perceived to be hitting parks by virtue of favoring power. Some of these yards suppress hits, and thus batting average. From the list, many may find the White Sox, Brewers and Reds lefties losing less than expected, but these home run parks are detrimental to batting averages. On the flip side, Red Sox and Royals left-handers will bop more long balls, but suffer in average.

RIGHT-HANDED BATTERS

Here, only a dozen squads gain or lose $1, with 11 more differing by just $2.

A somewhat surprising result could be the gains Mets right-handers would make. Not playing at Citi Field would really help J.D. Davis, for instance, especially if the universal designated hitter is deployed for the 2020 campaign.

The Tigers head the list of the curious losers if games aren't played in normal places. Comerica Park is generally though of as a pitcher's park, but it's one of the best sites for righties, registering a 108 park factor for hits and 105 for homers. That said, it's not like many Tigers ambush the fantasy hitting cheat sheets. Still, C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop were earmarked for a latent bump that's likely mitigated.

Before shifting attention to pitching, keep in mind park factors don't apply proportionately to every batter, they're a global effect. Some individuals will be affected more or less than others, not to mention in the sample of a likely abbreviated season, variance could mask tangible effects. As such, it's best to only make significant changes at the extremes. If you liked a batter only losing $2 of projected value, don't sweat it. On the other hand, don't jump a guy gaining $2 over someone whose skills you prefer. Also, the example hitter used is pretty good, as a $20 player is just outside the top 50. As you move down the rankings, the relative difference between the neutral and home park production lessens.

PITCHERS

Pitching doesn't need to include separate data for lefties and righties. However, the style of pitcher influences how he'll be affected by the park. Specifically, some venues embellish homers while suppressing hits and runs. This is the aggregate affect. Hurlers that allow a higher than average number of long balls may not realize as much of the run-saving impact as those that keep the ball in the yard. With that said, here are some big-picture observations.

Everyone would have pegged Rockies arms as being the greatest beneficiaries, but not many would have tagged the Tigers and Nationals as being next on the list. The fact that Nationals Park isn't seen as a hitter's park speaks to just how skilled Max Scherzer is, as well as Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. It also provides another reason to like Matthew Boyd and perhaps take a chance on Spencer Turnbull in deeper formats. Of course, German Marquez and Jon Gray are the biggest winners.

Those ranking Jacob deGrom ahead of Gerrit Cole (raises hand) may want to reconsider, as Citi Field is one of the top pitching venues in the game. Even though Cole's overall potential doesn't change much moving out the Bronx, deGrom's numbers should suffer if he's forced to work away from Queens.

As discussed in the intro, if MLB announces a plan involving games played away from the usual digs, we'll make the player-by-player adjustments. In the meantime, the data displayed above can be used to adjust your rankings for upcoming drafts.