Collette Calls: Values in the Scrap Heap

Honestly, this is a little late for this annual article, one which I usually write earlier in the offseason. It was originally something I submitted for the annual magazine, and last year, it was published at the end of November. I'm happy with the final result, because I only wrote up players outside the top 300 and had some hits with Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez and Michael Kopech on the pitching side of the ledger but only Mark Vientos and Joc Pederson on the hitting side. All in all, Manaea, Martinez, Pederson and Vientos helped win some leagues, as they were all late-round picks which clicked.

It would be revisionist history for me not to mention my sizable whiffs, which included Tim Anderson, Anthony Rendon, Chris Paddack, Adalberto Mondesi and Anthony Rizzo. I will once again be looking outside the top 300 for players who also finished the 2024 regular season with an earned auction value below $5. I am using the ADP from the last 117 Draft Champions drafts, which dates back to January 19th. Some of these players may not fall into the "last year's bums" bucket, but their current market value still has them going in the later rounds. I will also avoid repurposing anyone from the recently completed Bold Prediction series.

Hitters

Freddy Fermin (ADP 368; Min 219; Max 479) intrigues me this season because he should see more time behind the plate as Salvador Perez takes more games off from catching. Perez has caught 90 games in each of the past two seasons but turns 35 early in 2025 and no longer has first base available to him for resting his knees with Vinnie Pasquantino back to full health. Fermin is coming into his third full season at the big-league level, and thus far has only shown the ability to hit for a solid average at the plate. The quiet part of his game is that he's been outstanding defensively as well, with 90th percentile rankings in blocking, caught stealing and pop time, but Perez's skills and reputation steal most of that spotlight. 

Perez should start to see more time at DH while Jonathan India is already discussing his openness to servicing as a super utility player just about anywhere on the diamond. This should free up more time for Perez, who has hit both righties and lefties well while hitting more homers on the road. Fermin, along with William Contreras, is the only catcher to hit over .270 in each of the past two seasons (min 200 PA) and was one of five catchers to hit over .270 last season. We are projecting a .272 batting average for Fermin, which is on the high end of the freely available published projections:

If I've said it once this winter, I've said it a thousand times: there is value in volume. I believe Fermin is going to set a career high in plate appearances and take over the primary catching duties in Kansas City, helping your overall batting average from a position where not many players can while also challenging double-digit homers in his third full season. 

MJ Melendez (ADP 395; Min 328; Max 496) is going to make one of my offseason articles until he retires, because I know the one year I fail to mention him will be the year he finally breaks out. He's been in the league for three seasons now and has shown power, at least while facing righties. Melendez, with another team and in a different park, could hit 25-plus homers even in a strong-side platoon situation. The expected homer chart on BaseballSavant shows Melendez would be at that threshold in Cincinnati and could challenge it in Anaheim or Yankee Stadium (now, either version of it). 

Melendez is currently slated for the strong side of a platoon in left field with Nelson Velazquez, although Melendez still has remaining minor-league options while Velazquez is out of them. The former catcher would ideally be suited with a team who is more concerned with attendance than winning (Angels) or one looking for power on the cheap (Rays) rather than the team he currently plays for. If you're looking for cheap power off the bench and Melendez is dealt before camp breaks, this could be a source of 25-plus homers in a better situation than the one in which he currently finds himself. The projections aren't as optimistic as I am here, but I refuse to give up on the potential of this potent, 26-year-old bat. 

Max Kepler (ADP 412; Min 313; Max 604) got the relocation I hope Melendez will get, as he takes his talents to Philadelphia. Kepler's career has been all over the place statistically. He thoroughly enjoyed the tightly-wound baseballs of 2019 and hit 24 homers as recently as two seasons ago, but he's also seen nearly 50 points of batting-average variance in recent seasons and saw his once stellar walk rate crater last season.

GM Dave Dombrowski stated last month that:

"If you start going around the club," Dombrowski said, "it's hard to platoon everywhere."

Dombrowski rattled off names. There's two catchers, the four regular infielders plus Edmundo Sosa as the top reserve. Kyle Schwarber is the designated hitter. Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh are in the outfield. That's 11 with Kepler and Johan Rojas makes 12. The last man, to Dombrowski, is someone who can play on the infield.

One of Kepler or Marsh is not going be straight platooned if the last man on the bench is going to be someone who can play the infield and the outfield. Neither hitter has been great against lefties, but Kepler's 78 wRC+ against lefties looks better than Marsh's 61, which comes with a 38.9 percent strikeout rate. Kepler, as long as his body holds up, could replicate his 2023 line, and while the extra playing time against lefties could hold his batting average down, it will allow for more chances to hit homers.

Richie Palacios (ADP 490; Min 359; Max 622) comes into draft season with dual eligibility and a seemingly secure spot in the Tampa Bay offense-by-committee this season. He has three seasons of big-league baseball under his belt with three different organizations, with a .232/.327/.350 triple slash line for his career in 541 plate appearances, including 11 homers and 23 steals. The steals is the area to focus on, as Palacios is 23-of-24 in his attempts and was 19-of-20 last season.

That type of success rate will earn him a green light to run whenever he gets on base, much like what fueled Josh Lowe's breakout season in 2023. Nobody believes Palacios is going to put up the power numbers that Lowe did, but should the team take to Steinbrenner Field — and his swing is perfect for it — he has several paths to regular playing time. Christopher Morel and Jonathan Aranda both have options, and a slump from either could send them to Durham and open up more time for Palacios. He accepts his walks and hits more singles than extra-base hits, putting him in a great position to steal bases and increase his scoring chances from either the top or the bottom of the lineup. 

Jacob Stallings (ADP 544; Min 405; Max 724) is coming off his best offensive season of his major-league career and still finds himself 45th on the ADP rankings at catcher. A catcher that can hit for an average in Colorado going this low? This is a bargain-bin special!

Stallings did some eye-training work with a visual performance company last season and improved his results from one of the worst to one of the best in camp, earning a two-year deal with the Rockies. Stallings's pitch-blocking abilities are going to keep him behind the dish more often than Hunter Goodman and his extreme bat-first approach to catching. Elias Diaz hit .267 with 14 homers and 72 RBIs for this club in 2023 and hit .246 with 18 homers in 2021. Stallings would need a significant lift from the luck dragons to get to 18 homers, but double-digit homers and an above-average batting average from catcher is certainly possible. He truly has no business being the 46th-ranked player at this position.

Pitchers

DJ Herz (ADP 314; Min 256; Max 368) is the starter with the most upside in the Washington rotation this season, if you ask me. He throws four pitches, each of which has a Whiff% of at least 25 percent and each of which held opponents to a batting average below .230. If you look at his three primary offerings, none of their expected batting averages was above .225. He has repeatedly generated high walk rates in the minors, but then turned those frowns upside down with an 18.3 percent K-BB% as a major leaguer last year after his promotion. At this price, Herz can also be a quick cut if he resumes giving out free passes too frequently, but this is also a pitcher with a career 33.3 percent strikeout rate in the minors. He also allowed more walks (211) than hits (200) in his 321 innings of minor-league work, which is why this volatile asset is where he is in the ADP rankings.

Taylor Rogers (ADP 736; Min 493; Max 729) is the reliever I believe leads the Reds in saves, as long as the team doesn't add anyone else. Alexis Diaz was a mess last year with the worst K-BB% for all projected closers this season, and a 3.99 ERA along with a 1.30 WHIP will be tough for new manager Terry Francona to swallow after what he was able to enjoy with Emmanuel Clase in Cleveland. Rogers has already twice saved 30 games in a season, most recently in 2022, so he has familiarity with the role, and his 16.9 percent K-BB%, while in a four-year decline from its peak of 30.7 percent in 2021, is better than what Diaz and his wild ways bring to the table. Rogers is a simple pitcher in that he employs a sinker and a sweeper and will throw either to any hitter from his lower arm slot to induce softer contact. If you are looking for a very late target to speculate for saves, why not go with the guy who has done it before and who is backing up a reliever whose statistical foundation shows plenty of cracks?

Paul Sewald (ADP 468; Min 265; Max 686) is a pick which is clearly symbiotic with my feelings related to Clase this season. Sewald, like Rogers, has been in the closer role before and has saved 81 games over the past four seasons, including a career-best 34 in 2023. Sewald's simplistic approach is a riding four-seamer and a sweeping sweeper, which has made him a nightmare to righties but more hittable for lefties over the course of his career. He has allowed 27 homers to both righties and lefties, but the lefties have hit them in 233 fewer plate appearances. Cleveland is notorious for making tweaks to pitchers to help them make the most of what they have, and I'm curious to see what they do with Sewald. Stephen Vogt really overworked this bullpen last year, while Sewald is the freshest of the arms since he worked fewer than 40 innings around oblique and neck injuries last season. 

Matt Waldron (ADP 594; Min 442; Max 735) is someone I enjoy watching because the league needs more knuckleballers, plus I enjoy how he throws five pitches to righties and lefties. He clearly does not have the velocity to blow pitches by hitters, but his unicorn knuckleball at 77 mph makes his 90 mph fastball look quicker than it is. He is where he is in the rankings because his second half was an absolute disaster statistically, as he pitched to an 8.10 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP despite a better K-BB% (16.5 percent) than he had in the first half of the season when he pitched to a 2.33 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The .353 BABIP and 54.3 percent LOB% in the second half is what nightmares are made of, so this may be the best example of, "last year's trash could be this year's treasure," only because he has shown he can be successful as a major-league pitcher for an extended period of time. This will be a target of mine in the two Draft Champions leagues I am doing this month.

Ryne Nelson (ADP 336; Min 246; Max 450) is not even currently projected for the Arizona rotation, even in their six-man plans, as long as Jordan Montgomery is still on the roster. Nelson is one of those players where I want to take the late dart-throw on the skills and let the role work itself out. Nelson did not pitch well in the first half of the season, as he had a 4.98 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while the league hit .294 off him. However, after the break and some changes to his pitch utilization, he pitched to a 3.23 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, and the league hit just .223 against him. The change? He threw his fastball a lot more:

If you like a pitcher who doesn't walk many guys, Nelson was already your man. His K-BB% doubled from the first half to the second half from an abysmal 10.3 percent to 21.0 percent. The overall numbers do not paint as impressive of a picture as his growth in the second half of the season. If you're looking for a streaming option off the bench in shallow leagues or someone to fill out your rotation in a deeper format, you could do a lot worse than someone with this upside pitching for a contending team.