Alex Bregman

28-Year-Old Third Baseman3B

Houston Astros

2022 Stats

AVG

.259

RBI

2023 Projections

AVG

RBI

Unlock Our Projections

2023 Fantasy Outlook

While he will always have his vocal detractors as a result of his purported involvement in the 2019 Astros cheating scandal, Bregman should be able to rest easy at night knowing he's lived up to expectations as the No. 2 overall pick in 2015. He's a two-time All-Star and now a two-time World Series champion, having hit .294/.379/.569 in the most recent postseason to help manager Dusty Baker secure his first ring. Bregman was limited in 2021 due to quad and hamstring issue and underwent wrist surgery in November of 2021, which may have sapped his power early on in the 2022 campaign (.410 SLG at the end of June). He would go on to slug over .500 after the All-Star break. Running is something Bregman has abandoned, but the highly-capable bat and RBI opportunities batting behind Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez make Bregman an appealing option to consider after the elite tier of third basemen are off the board. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

#70

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'0"

Weight 192

DOB 3/30/1994

Born Albuquerque, NM

College LSU

Drafted 1st Rd 2015 HOU

Back in lineup

3BHouston Astros

March 3, 2023

Bregman (finger) is in the lineup for Friday's Grapefruit League game against Atlanta, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports.

ANALYSIS
The third baseman is ready to make his spring debut after fracturing his left index finger during the World Series last fall. He will bat cleanup behind Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena and Kyle Tucker. With Opening Day still about a month out, Bregman has plenty of time to prepare for the start of the season.

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Batting Stats

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2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2020

+4%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+25%

OPS vs RHP

2021

+13%

OPS vs LHP

2020

+33%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020vs Left	.786	423	49	10	44	0	.263	.371	.415
Since 2020vs Right	.815	810	117	31	126	2	.260	.356	.460
2022vs Left	.703	226	23	4	20	0	.225	.345	.358
2022vs Right	.881	430	70	19	73	1	.277	.377	.504
2021vs Left	.839	141	19	4	19	0	.300	.397	.442
2021vs Right	.744	259	35	8	36	1	.254	.332	.412
2020vs Left	.985	56	7	2	5	0	.319	.411	.574
2020vs Right	.738	121	12	4	17	0	.214	.331	.408
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2020

+18%

OPS at Home

2022

+44%

OPS at Home

2021

+14%

OPS on Road

2020

+12%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020Home	.872	611	90	23	92	0	.279	.388	.484
Since 2020Away	.737	625	76	18	78	2	.242	.333	.404
2022Home	.972	326	53	16	53	0	.305	.414	.558
2022Away	.673	330	40	7	40	1	.215	.318	.355
2021Home	.725	201	26	5	29	0	.244	.333	.392
2021Away	.830	199	28	7	26	1	.297	.377	.453
2020Home	.850	84	11	2	10	0	.269	.417	.433
2020Away	.757	96	8	4	12	0	.221	.292	.465
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Stat Review

How does Alex Bregman compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

1.13

BB Rate

13.3%

K Rate

11.7%

BABIP

.260

ISO

.195

AVG

.259

OBP

.366

SLG

.454

OPS

.820

wOBA

.360

Exit Velocity

88.9 mph

Hard Hit Rate

31.0%

Barrels/PA

5.3%

Expected BA

.257

Expected SLG

.416

Sprint Speed

21.6 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

33.3%

Line Drive %

18.9%

Fly Ball %

47.8%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Astros Depth Chart

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

While the temptation is to chalk up the worst season of Bregman's career to losing over 10 weeks with quadriceps and hamstring injuries, he was slashing only .275/.359/.428 when he was put on the IL in mid-June, compared to .261/.348/.412 after returning in late August. Bregman has never lit up his Statcast page, with his power being a product of a high pull rate at home and on the road. His contact rate remains excellent, but Bregman's 40.8% groundball rate was a career high, dampening power. Bregman underwent wrist surgery in November which could explain a .737 OPS after Sept. 1 and a .604 mark in 16 playoff games. Bregman's plate skills provide a strong batting average and on base floor. The name brand and the allure of 2019's Happy Fun Ball season raise Bregman's price above his true talent level.

Everyone knew that 2020 was going to be a rough season for Bregman given all the attention regarding TrashcanGate. He rubbed many the wrong way with his attitude toward the whole thing, and gave the haters plenty of fuel with his rather lackluster 2020 performance. Bregman's slash line by season's end included a career-low batting average, his second-lowest OBP, and the worst SLG of his career. He continued to draw walks and not strike out much, which shows that his ability to hit was not solely built upon the banging of a receptacle. He did miss a chunk of time with hamstring injury, but even his confident persona would admit the season was a bust. He no longer has dual position eligibility on draft day, but a healthy Bregman playing in Minute Maid Field should resume his above-average offensive production. Lean more toward 2017 than 2019.

This is what 80-grade plate skills look like: a 17.2 BB% and 12 K% over 690 PA as a 25-year-old. It was Bregman's second straight year with more walks than strikeouts, and he added 10 home runs to his 2018 total. Batting mostly 2-4 in one of the American League's most prolific offenses, Bregman finished with 234 runs-plus-RBI, ranking fourth in MLB, and added a handful of steals en route to a second-place finish in the MVP voting. There is some evidence to suggest he was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the juiced ball, but you're not buying Bregman for 40-plus homers. You're buying him because he has arguably the highest four-category floor in the game for anyone not named Mike Trout or Nolan Arenado. Bregman has reached 155 games played in each of the last three years and the Astros will be returning most of their offense around him. He maintains shortstop- and 3B-eligibility heading into 2020.

Bregman's coming-out party in the 2017 World Series may have moved his draft-day price to an uncomfortable level, but he rewarded investors by blossoming into one of the sport's top hitters. A more selective approach has been the key, as he bumped his BB/K from 0.29 to 1.13 in the span of two years. Bregman made the most of the contact gains, too, raising his ISO by 55 points en route to a 31-homer campaign. While Bregman lost out on some steals, he was still an asset on the bases with 10 thefts, atoning for the decline there with big outputs in the other major counting categories. The year-to-year growth he's already shown makes it tough to bank on Bregman reaching another level, but his age and the support of a stacked lineup at least make it a possibility. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow in January and is expected to be limited at the start of spring training, potentially pushing him out of the first round.

Bregman took a while to find his footing at the big-league level, but he grew very comfortable by the end of 2017, finishing with a .315/.367/.536 line in the second half. He carried that momentum into the postseason and showed his mettle with homers off Chris Sale (2), Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen en route to a World Series win. Bregman puts the ball in play consistently (15.5 percent strikeout rate) and he walked at an above-average clip last season (8.8 percent) while making hard contact with roughly one-third of his batted balls. At 23 years old, he has good instincts on the basepaths (17-for-22) and has already cemented himself into the two hole in one of baseball's best lineups. There's a ton to like here even at an inflated cost coming off the postseason run; think Anthony Rendon-lite with more speed and shortstop eligibility, and without the injury history.

Bregman has been in professional baseball for all of two seasons, and all he has done is hit. He had more walks than strikeouts at the minor league level and hit .300/.388/.503 with 24 homers and 20 steals in the minors in what equated to a full season of 679 plate appearances across all levels. He held his own at the major league level after just 83 plate appearances at Triple-A. Following a 2-for-42 start in the majors, Bregman hit .313/.354/.577 the rest of the way, showing his ability to quickly adjust against top-level pitching. He is projected to hit in the top third of the lineup between George Springer and Jose Altuve which should help him become a very productive third baseman in 2017.

Following three successful seasons at LSU (.334/.407/.517) where he established himself as one of the top college hitters available, Bregman was selected by the Astros with the second overall pick in the 2015 first-year player draft. In 66 games between Low-A Quad Cities and High-A Lancaster last season, Bregman hit .294/.366/.415 with four home runs, 34 RBI and 13 steals with a 30:29 K:BB. The 21-year-old played shortstop in college and throughout his first professional season, but his future position probably hinges on the health of Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve when he is ready to debut. The Astros could also look to deal Bregman if he is ready for primetime and they don't have a spot for him. A ticket to Double-A Corpus Christi is likely at some point in 2016, if not to begin the year, but a jump to the majors will likely have to wait until 2017 unless there is an injury in the big league infield.

More Fantasy News

Slated for game action Friday

3BHouston Astros

Finger

February 28, 2023

Bregman (finger) will make his Grapefruit League debut Friday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
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Finger healing well

3BHouston Astros

Finger

January 21, 2023

Bregman's broken left index finger has healed well, and he's been able to swing since the start of January, Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle reports.

ANALYSIS
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