Last week, I discussed five hitters that I've been finding myself rostering in early drafts. This week, we're turning our attention to the pitching side.
Hunter Greene, SP, Cincinnati Reds
NFBC ADP: 96.82
One of my Offseason Deep Dives pieces back in November focused on Greene. His NFBC ADP at the time was 86.14, and since I thought he was a fine buy at that price point, it should come as no surprise that I've been consistently rostering him now that he's a bit cheaper. I would suggest you check out my full breakdown of Greene in the aforementioned link, but I will go over some bullet points here. The improvement in Greene's four-seamer from 2023 to 2024 was arguably the biggest jump of any pitch in baseball, as it went from scoring a minus-12 in Baseball Savant's Run Value to a plus-20, which was the second-best mark of any four-seamer in baseball. He changed his release point and with it the movement profile of the pitch, which allowed the offering to play up to, frankly, where it should be playing given its velocity. Greene's slider remained effective, and he also added a splitter which showed incredible promise. It's fair to have some injury concerns with the 25-year-old, as he's missed time in all three of his seasons, including in the second half last year with an elbow issue. However, he finished the season healthy and, if he's able to make 30 starts in 2025, I expect him
Last week, I discussed five hitters that I've been finding myself rostering in early drafts. This week, we're turning our attention to the pitching side.
Hunter Greene, SP, Cincinnati Reds
NFBC ADP: 96.82
One of my Offseason Deep Dives pieces back in November focused on Greene. His NFBC ADP at the time was 86.14, and since I thought he was a fine buy at that price point, it should come as no surprise that I've been consistently rostering him now that he's a bit cheaper. I would suggest you check out my full breakdown of Greene in the aforementioned link, but I will go over some bullet points here. The improvement in Greene's four-seamer from 2023 to 2024 was arguably the biggest jump of any pitch in baseball, as it went from scoring a minus-12 in Baseball Savant's Run Value to a plus-20, which was the second-best mark of any four-seamer in baseball. He changed his release point and with it the movement profile of the pitch, which allowed the offering to play up to, frankly, where it should be playing given its velocity. Greene's slider remained effective, and he also added a splitter which showed incredible promise. It's fair to have some injury concerns with the 25-year-old, as he's missed time in all three of his seasons, including in the second half last year with an elbow issue. However, he finished the season healthy and, if he's able to make 30 starts in 2025, I expect him to be a fantasy ace.
Cristopher Sanchez, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
NFBC ADP: 189.03
Sanchez had a surprise mini-breakout in 2023, combining his elite groundball skills with a huge leap forward with his control. Both of those traits stuck in 2024, as his 57.4 percent groundball rate was the third-highest mark in baseball and his 5.8 percent walk rate was the 15th-lowest among qualifiers. Sanchez also greatly suppressed hard contact last season, with a hard-hit rate in the 82nd percentile and barrel rate in the 86th percentile. The left-hander's strikeout rate did dip from 24.2 percent to 20.3 percent, although his swinging strike rate more or less held steady (11.6 percent to 11.3 percent). Sanchez threw his sinker more than two mph harder in 2024, but he got worse results with the pitch, so he might be better off dialing things back a bit. The changeup, though, was phenomenal, as it ranked tops in all of baseball with a Run Value of plus-18. Sanchez is also working on a new pitch, which will be something worth tracking this spring. If that new pitch can help get his strikeout rate back to at least league-average, it raises his ceiling. Even if that doesn't happen, Sanchez looks like a safe floor play at a very affordable cost.
Clarke Schmidt, SP, New York Yankees
NFBC ADP: 232.11
Schmidt had a stellar first two months of last season, collecting a 2.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 67:20 K:BB over 60.2 innings (11 starts). Unfortunately, he suffered a right lat strain in the last of those outings, which cost him more than three months of action. He did return to make eight starts down the stretch of the regular and postseason but didn't pitch as well, posting a 4.17 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 35:17 K:BB over 36.2 frames. I believe Schmidt is closer to the pitcher we saw in April and May. The righty began using a cutter in 2023 and leaned into the offering more in 2024, making it his primary pitch. Between Schmidt's cutter, sweeper and knuckle curve, he had three pitches that all had at least a 29.7 percent whiff rate and an xwOBA below .300. The sweeper and knuckle curve were both nails versus righties, while the cutter and knuckle curve kept lefties at bay, allowing Schmidt to overcome the splits issues he had in 2023. He also slayed the home run dragon in 2024 after it was a nuisance the season prior. Schmidt's sinker needs work, but 80 percent of his repertoire is in good shape and he's on a great team.
Nick Lodolo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
NFBC ADP: 253.13
It's all about staying healthy for Lodolo. Yes, he had a 4.76 ERA last season, but in 12 starts before a blister and sprained finger on his pitching hand sabotaged things, he had collected a 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 73:19 K:BB over 70 innings. The left-hander wasn't the same guy after returning, with Lodolo admitting afterward that he was unable to comfortably grip the baseball to throw his curveball, which is his best swing-and-miss pitch. Lodolo hasn't proven he can stay healthy over the course of an entire season. The 23 starts he made last year between the majors and two rehab outings were a professional high. None of his injuries have been elbow or shoulder related, though, and he will head into spring training without limitations. It's certainly possible Lodolo's body just isn't capable of holding up for 30 starts, and he does have the built-in Great American Ball Park disadvantage. That said, you're getting a guy outside the top-250 picks who legitimately has SP1 within his range of outcomes.
Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
NFBC ADP: 312.43
I suppose Kelly qualifies as the "boring veteran" compared to the others on this list, but at this time last year he was going 150 picks earlier. Kelly topped 200 innings both in 2022 and 2023 (between the regular and postseason) but was limited to only 73.2 frames in 2024 due to a shoulder injury after pitching deep into October the year prior, which doesn't seem like a coincidence. I take solace in the fact that in 2024 Kelly started out great (2.19 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 21:6 K:BB in 24.2 innings in April) and finished great (3.58 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 30:5 K:BB in 27.2 innings in September), while his overall numbers were weighed down by a terrible August when he was knocking off four months of rust. The Diamondbacks picked up Kelly's option, so they must have some level of confidence he can be healthy and effective. Perhaps it's a misread on both of our parts, but gosh, Kelly had a 3.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23.9 percent strikeout rate and 8.5 percent walk rate over 63 starts from 2022 to 2023. Getting him after pick 300 feels like a gift.
