Aaron Nola

31-Year-Old PitcherSP

Philadelphia Phillies

2024 Stats

W-L

14-8

ERA

3.57

WHIP

1.20

197

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Nola shocked many when he decided to re-up with the Phillies for seven years rather than test the free agent waters in what was a lucrative market with multiple big market teams looking for pitching. Then again, Nola has pitched very well at Citizens Bank Ballpark over the years whereas his struggles have more recently been away from Philly. You may be surprised to learn that Nola pitched to a 3.29 ERA with 12 homers in 87.2 innings at home in 2023, but had a 5.43 ERA with 20 homers in 106 innings on the road last season. He is a rare bird in that he has not missed a single start since missing a handful of starts in the 2017 season and has pitched at least 180 innings in each of the past five full seasons. He has become rather stingy with walks in recent years while continuing to get 200+ strikeouts year after year. 2021 and 2023 have a familiar look to them and Nola absolutely has the ability to bounce back in 2024 as he did in 2022 while deciding to continue his career where it began. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#92

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 6'2"

Weight 200

DOB 6/4/1993

Born Baton Rouge, LA

College LSU

Drafted 1st Rd 2014 PHI

Notches 14th victory in finale

PPhiladelphia Phillies

September 29, 2024

Nola (14-8) picked up the win Sunday against the Nationals, allowing three earned runs on nine hits and zero walks while striking out seven in five innings.

ANALYSIS
Nola did not save his best for last, surrendering a leadoff home run to Luis Garcia in the opening frame. The veteran righty effectively worked around the traffic he put on the basepaths, however. The 31-year-old Nola was his steady, dependable self yet again for fantasy managers in 2024, pitching to a 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 197:50 K:BB in 199.1 innings -- the fifth-biggest workload in MLB this year. Excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, Nola has started 32 or more games in every season since 2018. During that span, he leads MLB in both starts (208) and innings pitched (1,264.2), making him one of the most reliable starting pitchers in fantasy.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Aaron Nola generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Aaron Nola generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-8%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-9%

BAA vs LHP

2023

Even Split

2022

-16%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.225	1173	287	73	245	50	4	42
Since 2022vs Right	.245	1247	347	51	290	63	2	39
2024vs Left	.236	419	88	30	91	19	1	18
2024vs Right	.259	401	109	20	98	20	1	12
2023vs Left	.240	364	90	25	81	17	2	16
2023vs Right	.241	429	112	20	97	18	1	16
2022vs Left	.200	390	109	18	73	14	1	8
2022vs Right	.237	417	126	11	95	25	0	11
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-18%

ERA at Home

2024

-15%

ERA at Home

2023

-39%

ERA at Home

2022

-15%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.37	1.01	288.2	19	11	0	9.8	1.9	1.2
Since 2022Away	4.10	1.19	309.1	18	19	0	9.3	1.9	1.2
2024Home	3.29	1.10	104.0	7	4	0	9.3	2.3	1.3
2024Away	3.87	1.31	95.1	7	4	0	8.5	2.3	1.4
2023Home	3.29	0.97	87.2	6	3	0	10.0	1.7	1.2
2023Away	5.43	1.30	106.0	6	6	0	8.9	2.4	1.7
2022Home	3.53	0.96	97.0	6	4	0	10.3	1.6	1.1
2022Away	3.00	0.96	108.0	5	9	0	10.3	1.0	0.6
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Stat Review

How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

3.94

K/9

8.9

BB/9

2.3

HR/9

1.4

Fastball

92.1 mph

ERA

3.57

WHIP

1.20

BABIP

.303

GB/FB

1.44

Left On Base

78.7%

Exit Velocity

81.4 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.5%

Spin Rate

2313 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

23.0%

Swinging Strike

11.5%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Last year's outlook hinted at the possibilities of a strong bounceback season for Nola, and that is indeed what came to be. Years ago, this was the type of pitcher you could get on the cheap coming off the type of season he had in 2021, but fantasy baseball managers are a smarter bunch these days and Nola had very little discount last winter and is likely to bounce right back to his previous draft status this winter. He has now posted a K-BB% greater than 20% for three consecutive seasons and four of the past five seasons and the new conditions of baseball manufacturing were a blessing to him as it pulled his HR/9 rate below 1.0 for the first time since the 2018 season. He has tweaked his pitch mix by throwing more hard stuff and dialing back on his changeup a bit as the league hit .319 off that offering this season. The only concern with Nola heading into 2023 is the fact he finished last year with 230 innings (playoffs included), which is unchartered waters for him as he has never pitched deep into October.

How much do you trust ERA estimators? The answer probably determines how much you like Nola heading into 2022. His 4.63 ERA, easily his worst since 2016, suggests he wasn't very good last year. Advanced metrics universally liked him far more than that, with FIP, xFIP, xERA and SIERA all placing him between 3.26 and 3.39, and it's not hard to see why. He combined a career-best 5.2 BB% with a 29.8 K%, with his K-BB% ranking fifth among qualified starters. The main downside was his career-low 40.5% groundball rate, which led to a career-high 1.3 HR/9. That's far from a terrible groundball rate, however, so if he maintains a similar strikeout and walk rate while posting groundball numbers closer to his career 48.7% mark he could be in line for one of his best seasons. He's also remarkably durable, with a single brief absence due to contact tracing representing his only trip to the injured list since 2017.

Nola was a rare bright spot on the Phillies' pitching staff last season, posting a 3.28 ERA in 12 starts, the second-best mark of his six-year career. That helped him to a seventh-place finish in the NL Cy Young race, his second top-10 showing in the last three seasons. There's a case he deserved even better, as Baseball Prospectus' DRA pegged him as the top starter in the NL, while his 2.79 xFIP ranked second. His big improvement last season came in his strikeout rate, which had settled in between 25% and 27% in that category over the previous four seasons but jumped all the way up to 33.2% last year, good for sixth among qualified starters, just ahead of Gerrit Cole. That jump was backed up by an increase in his whiff rate from 26.6% to 31.3%. If those gains hold in 2021, he could move into the back of the top tier of fantasy arms, jumping up from the solid second-tier option he's been in recent seasons.

Nola was poor at both ends of the 2019 season, posting a 6.84 ERA over his first five starts and a 6.51 mark over his final five. In between those two stretches, he was in vintage form, recording a 2.89 ERA and a 27.1 K%. The entire season's stats count, of course, so those who drafted Nola likely weren't happy with his 3.87 ERA overall. The 26-year-old doesn't appear to have been a victim of too much bad luck, as that figure was right around his 4.03 FIP and 3.82 xFIP. His walk rate took a big step back, jumping from 7.0% to 9.4%, a worrying development given that command and control have been Nola's calling card for the entirety of his career. There's still plenty of upside here, as the good version of Nola is just a small step outside baseball's top tier of starting pitchers, but last year's version was a merely good pitcher. The Phillies will hope a new regime brings out the best in their ace.

Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher.

Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.

Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.

When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.

Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.

More Fantasy News

Wins lucky No. 13

PPhiladelphia Phillies

September 23, 2024

Nola (13-8) earned the win Monday, allowing two runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings against the Cubs. He struck out seven.