2023 Stats
W-L
4-4
ERA
4.70
WHIP
1.13
K
65
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Last year's outlook hinted at the possibilities of a strong bounceback season for Nola, and that is indeed what came to be. Years ago, this was the type of pitcher you could get on the cheap coming off the type of season he had in 2021, but fantasy baseball managers are a smarter bunch these days and Nola had very little discount last winter and is likely to bounce right back to his previous draft status this winter. He has now posted a K-BB% greater than 20% for three consecutive seasons and four of the past five seasons and the new conditions of baseball manufacturing were a blessing to him as it pulled his HR/9 rate below 1.0 for the first time since the 2018 season. He has tweaked his pitch mix by throwing more hard stuff and dialing back on his changeup a bit as the league hit .319 off that offering this season. The only concern with Nola heading into 2023 is the fact he finished last year with 230 innings (playoffs included), which is unchartered waters for him as he has never pitched deep into October. Read Past Outlooks

Falls to 4-4 with loss
Nola (4-4) took the loss against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing four runs on four hits and three walks while striking out five batters over six innings.
ANALYSIS
Nola would have likely had better results if not for the presence of Mark Canha, who knocked in all four runs against the veteran hurler. There were some things to like about Nola's performance -- he allowed just one extra-base hit and extended his streak of pitching six-plus innings to nine games -- but he also tied a season high with three walks and struck out just five batters. The right-hander's ability to pitch deep into games has been an asset for Philadelphia, but his overall numbers are a drop off compared to last season. On the campaign, he's posted a 4.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 65:18 K:BB across 74.2 frames.
Nola would have likely had better results if not for the presence of Mark Canha, who knocked in all four runs against the veteran hurler. There were some things to like about Nola's performance -- he allowed just one extra-base hit and extended his streak of pitching six-plus innings to nine games -- but he also tied a season high with three walks and struck out just five batters. The right-hander's ability to pitch deep into games has been an asset for Philadelphia, but his overall numbers are a drop off compared to last season. On the campaign, he's posted a 4.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 65:18 K:BB across 74.2 frames.
Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2023 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
95
Last 10 Games
98
Last 5 Games
97
How many pitches does Aaron Nola generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Aaron Nola generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
-13%
BAA vs LHP
2023
-8%
BAA vs LHP
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2021vs Left | .212 | 255 | 46 | 174 | 24 | |||
Since 2021vs Right | .245 | 268 | 40 | 225 | 33 | |||
2023vs Left | .224 | 25 | 11 | 24 | 2 | |||
2023vs Right | .244 | 40 | 7 | 42 | 10 | |||
2022vs Left | .200 | 109 | 18 | 73 | 8 | |||
2022vs Right | .237 | 126 | 11 | 95 | 11 | |||
2021vs Left | .221 | 121 | 17 | 77 | 14 | |||
2021vs Right | .254 | 102 | 22 | 88 | 12 | |||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
-14%
ERA at Home
2023
-25%
ERA at Home
ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2021Home | 3.70 | 0.99 | 204.1 | 10.9 | 1.5 | ||||
Since 2021Away | 4.29 | 1.10 | 256.0 | 9.7 | 1.8 | ||||
2023Home | 3.86 | 1.09 | 25.2 | 8.8 | 2.1 | ||||
2023Away | 5.14 | 1.14 | 49.0 | 7.3 | 2.2 | ||||
2022Home | 3.53 | 0.96 | 97.0 | 10.3 | 1.6 | ||||
2022Away | 3.00 | 0.96 | 108.0 | 10.3 | 1.0 | ||||
2021Home | 3.86 | 1.00 | 81.2 | 12.3 | 1.3 | ||||
2021Away | 5.27 | 1.23 | 99.0 | 10.1 | 2.5 | ||||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Stat Review
How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
3.61K/9
7.8BB/9
2.2HR/9
1.4Fastball
91.7 mphERA
4.70WHIP
1.13BABIP
.271GB/FB
1.07Left On Base
65.5%Exit Velocity
82.0 mphBarrels/BBE
4.8%Spin Rate
2271 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
22.8%Swinging Strike
10.9%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Nola See More

Todd Zola poses a series of questions regarding rest-of-season pitching expectations and finds that Joe Ryan has earned a great deal of trust.

Chris Morgan dives into Wednesday's DraftKings offering, making his picks to help you craft a winning DFS lineup.

Todd Zola toes the rubber for the weekly pitcher rankings, including a two-start week for reigning NL Cy Young Award-winner Sandy Alcantara.

Todd Zola checks in on whether this year's game is indeed as crispy as advertised and shares his thoughts from Wednesday's games, which included another blast from Jorge Soler.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
How much do you trust ERA estimators? The answer probably determines how much you like Nola heading into 2022. His 4.63 ERA, easily his worst since 2016, suggests he wasn't very good last year. Advanced metrics universally liked him far more than that, with FIP, xFIP, xERA and SIERA all placing him between 3.26 and 3.39, and it's not hard to see why. He combined a career-best 5.2 BB% with a 29.8 K%, with his K-BB% ranking fifth among qualified starters. The main downside was his career-low 40.5% groundball rate, which led to a career-high 1.3 HR/9. That's far from a terrible groundball rate, however, so if he maintains a similar strikeout and walk rate while posting groundball numbers closer to his career 48.7% mark he could be in line for one of his best seasons. He's also remarkably durable, with a single brief absence due to contact tracing representing his only trip to the injured list since 2017.
More Fantasy News

Serves up three homers Thursday
Nola allowed five runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out seven batters over six innings in a no-decision against Atlanta on Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Season-high 10 strikeouts
Nola (4-3) earned the win Saturday, allowing two runs on four hits and one walk over seven innings during a 12-3 win over the Cubs. He struck out 10.
ANALYSIS
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Yields four runs in loss
Nola (3-3) allowed four runs on six hits and a walk while striking out four over seven innings, taking the loss Sunday versus the Rockies.
ANALYSIS
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Sharp in Tuesday's win
Nola (3-2) picked up the win Tuesday, allowing two runs on five hits and two walks over six innings in an 8-4 victory over the Blue Jays. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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No-decision in loss
Nola did not factor into the decision Wednesday, allowing four runs on seven hits over 6.1 innings against the Dodgers. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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