Aaron Nola

29-Year-Old PitcherSP

Philadelphia Phillies

2023 Stats

W-L

4-4

ERA

4.70

WHIP

1.13

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Last year's outlook hinted at the possibilities of a strong bounceback season for Nola, and that is indeed what came to be. Years ago, this was the type of pitcher you could get on the cheap coming off the type of season he had in 2021, but fantasy baseball managers are a smarter bunch these days and Nola had very little discount last winter and is likely to bounce right back to his previous draft status this winter. He has now posted a K-BB% greater than 20% for three consecutive seasons and four of the past five seasons and the new conditions of baseball manufacturing were a blessing to him as it pulled his HR/9 rate below 1.0 for the first time since the 2018 season. He has tweaked his pitch mix by throwing more hard stuff and dialing back on his changeup a bit as the league hit .319 off that offering this season. The only concern with Nola heading into 2023 is the fact he finished last year with 230 innings (playoffs included), which is unchartered waters for him as he has never pitched deep into October. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#37

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 200

DOB 6/4/1993

Born Baton Rouge, LA

College LSU

Drafted 1st Rd 2014 PHI

Falls to 4-4 with loss

PPhiladelphia Phillies

May 31, 2023

Nola (4-4) took the loss against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing four runs on four hits and three walks while striking out five batters over six innings.

ANALYSIS
Nola would have likely had better results if not for the presence of Mark Canha, who knocked in all four runs against the veteran hurler. There were some things to like about Nola's performance -- he allowed just one extra-base hit and extended his streak of pitching six-plus innings to nine games -- but he also tied a season high with three walks and struck out just five batters. The right-hander's ability to pitch deep into games has been an asset for Philadelphia, but his overall numbers are a drop off compared to last season. On the campaign, he's posted a 4.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 65:18 K:BB across 74.2 frames.

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Pitching Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Aaron Nola generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Aaron Nola generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-13%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-8%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-16%

BAA vs LHP

2021

-13%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2021vs Left	.212	881	255	46	174	36	6	24
Since 2021vs Right	.245	977	268	40	225	46	2	33
2023vs Left	.224	119	25	11	24	7	1	2
2023vs Right	.244	183	40	7	42	7	1	10
2022vs Left	.200	390	109	18	73	14	1	8
2022vs Right	.237	417	126	11	95	25	0	11
2021vs Left	.221	372	121	17	77	15	4	14
2021vs Right	.254	377	102	22	88	14	1	12
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-14%

ERA at Home

2023

-25%

ERA at Home

2022

-15%

ERA on Road

2021

-27%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2021Home	3.70	0.99	204.1	13	8	0	10.9	1.5	1.2
Since 2021Away	4.29	1.10	256.0	11	18	0	9.7	1.8	1.1
2023Home	3.86	1.09	25.2	2	1	0	8.8	2.1	1.4
2023Away	5.14	1.14	49.0	2	3	0	7.3	2.2	1.5
2022Home	3.53	0.96	97.0	6	4	0	10.3	1.6	1.1
2022Away	3.00	0.96	108.0	5	9	0	10.3	1.0	0.6
2021Home	3.86	1.00	81.2	5	3	0	12.3	1.3	1.2
2021Away	5.27	1.23	99.0	4	6	0	10.1	2.5	1.4
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Stat Review

How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

3.61

K/9

7.8

BB/9

2.2

HR/9

1.4

Fastball

91.7 mph

ERA

4.70

WHIP

1.13

BABIP

.271

GB/FB

1.07

Left On Base

65.5%

Exit Velocity

82.0 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.8%

Spin Rate

2271 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

22.8%

Swinging Strike

10.9%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Phillies Depth Chart

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Nola See More

The Z Files: Would You Rather, Pitching Style

2 days ago

Todd Zola poses a series of questions regarding rest-of-season pitching expectations and finds that Joe Ryan has earned a great deal of trust.

MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Wednesday, May 31

3 days ago

Chris Morgan dives into Wednesday's DraftKings offering, making his picks to help you craft a winning DFS lineup.

Weekly Pitching Rankings: Checking in with Ratios

7 days ago

Todd Zola toes the rubber for the weekly pitcher rankings, including a two-start week for reigning NL Cy Young Award-winner Sandy Alcantara.

Todd's Takes: So Far, They're (Mostly) Right

9 days ago

Todd Zola checks in on whether this year's game is indeed as crispy as advertised and shares his thoughts from Wednesday's games, which included another blast from Jorge Soler.

MLB Picks: Betting Strategy for Braves vs Phillies Series

9 days ago

John Ryan gives his betting preview for the weekend series between the Braves and Phillies, and tacks on a pair of bets to target for Game 1 on Thursday.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

How much do you trust ERA estimators? The answer probably determines how much you like Nola heading into 2022. His 4.63 ERA, easily his worst since 2016, suggests he wasn't very good last year. Advanced metrics universally liked him far more than that, with FIP, xFIP, xERA and SIERA all placing him between 3.26 and 3.39, and it's not hard to see why. He combined a career-best 5.2 BB% with a 29.8 K%, with his K-BB% ranking fifth among qualified starters. The main downside was his career-low 40.5% groundball rate, which led to a career-high 1.3 HR/9. That's far from a terrible groundball rate, however, so if he maintains a similar strikeout and walk rate while posting groundball numbers closer to his career 48.7% mark he could be in line for one of his best seasons. He's also remarkably durable, with a single brief absence due to contact tracing representing his only trip to the injured list since 2017.

Nola was a rare bright spot on the Phillies' pitching staff last season, posting a 3.28 ERA in 12 starts, the second-best mark of his six-year career. That helped him to a seventh-place finish in the NL Cy Young race, his second top-10 showing in the last three seasons. There's a case he deserved even better, as Baseball Prospectus' DRA pegged him as the top starter in the NL, while his 2.79 xFIP ranked second. His big improvement last season came in his strikeout rate, which had settled in between 25% and 27% in that category over the previous four seasons but jumped all the way up to 33.2% last year, good for sixth among qualified starters, just ahead of Gerrit Cole. That jump was backed up by an increase in his whiff rate from 26.6% to 31.3%. If those gains hold in 2021, he could move into the back of the top tier of fantasy arms, jumping up from the solid second-tier option he's been in recent seasons.

Nola was poor at both ends of the 2019 season, posting a 6.84 ERA over his first five starts and a 6.51 mark over his final five. In between those two stretches, he was in vintage form, recording a 2.89 ERA and a 27.1 K%. The entire season's stats count, of course, so those who drafted Nola likely weren't happy with his 3.87 ERA overall. The 26-year-old doesn't appear to have been a victim of too much bad luck, as that figure was right around his 4.03 FIP and 3.82 xFIP. His walk rate took a big step back, jumping from 7.0% to 9.4%, a worrying development given that command and control have been Nola's calling card for the entirety of his career. There's still plenty of upside here, as the good version of Nola is just a small step outside baseball's top tier of starting pitchers, but last year's version was a merely good pitcher. The Phillies will hope a new regime brings out the best in their ace.

Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher.

Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.

Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.

When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.

Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.

More Fantasy News

Serves up three homers Thursday

PPhiladelphia Phillies

May 25, 2023

Nola allowed five runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out seven batters over six innings in a no-decision against Atlanta on Thursday.