Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

28-Year-Old Second Baseman2B
Tampa Bay Rays
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Lowe took hold of an everyday role in 2021 and delivered an .863 OPS and 39 homers in 149 games, but a nagging back injury limited him to only 65 games last year. He batted .221 but finished 2022 with a slightly-above-average 104 wRC+, and he also cut his strikeout rate nearly five percentage points to 22.9 percent. It's unclear exactly how much the back injury affected the second baseman's production, and it's worth keeping an eye on whether the issue resurfaces again during 2023. He fared better against left-handed pitching with a .793 OPS, though that success may not indicate much since it covered only 48 plate appearances. A return to his 2021 form shouldn't be expected, but Lowe should be in store for a bounceback season in 2023. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#156
ADP
$Signed a six-year, $24 million contract with the Rays in March of 2019. Contract includes a $10.5 million team options ($1 million buyout) for 2025 and an $11.5 million team option ($500,000 buyout) for 2026.
Sitting versus lefty
2BTampa Bay Rays
May 27, 2023
Lowe is not in the starting lineup Saturday versus the Dodgers, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
Lowe will take a seat as the Rays face off with left-hander Clayton Kershaw on Saturday. Taylor Walls will replace him at second base and bat eighth against Los Angeles.
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Batting Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
4
11
7
17
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+22%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+36%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+19%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+44%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021vs Left .680 252 26 13 38 2 .211 .266 .414
Since 2021vs Right .829 809 127 42 113 9 .240 .344 .485
2023vs Left .527 16 4 0 2 0 .214 .313 .214
2023vs Right .718 164 21 8 25 3 .203 .299 .420
2022vs Left .793 48 5 3 9 1 .261 .271 .522
2022vs Right .666 218 26 5 16 0 .212 .317 .349
2021vs Left .662 188 17 10 27 1 .198 .261 .401
2021vs Right .956 427 80 29 72 6 .270 .375 .581
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+6%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+19%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+30%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+4%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021Home .817 532 84 29 77 8 .237 .331 .486
Since 2021Away .768 529 69 26 74 3 .229 .319 .448
2023Home .760 94 15 6 19 2 .207 .309 .451
2023Away .637 86 10 2 8 1 .200 .291 .347
2022Home .785 125 18 4 11 1 .263 .320 .465
2022Away .604 141 13 4 14 0 .182 .298 .306
2021Home .847 313 51 19 47 5 .234 .342 .506
2021Away .879 302 46 20 52 2 .259 .338 .541
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Stat Review
How does Brandon Lowe compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.41
 
BB Rate
12.2%
 
K Rate
30.0%
 
BABIP
.260
 
ISO
.197
 
AVG
.210
 
OBP
.306
 
SLG
.408
 
OPS
.713
 
wOBA
.311
 
Exit Velocity
91.7 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
38.5%
 
Barrels/PA
7.2%
 
Expected BA
.207
 
Expected SLG
.421
 
Sprint Speed
22.3 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
39.4%
 
Line Drive %
11.5%
 
Fly Ball %
49.0%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
Lowe was finally given his chance to function as an everyday player, and he rewarded the club's faith in him by having a career year at the plate despite his flaws. He fell just shy of joining Marcus Semien last season, and historically Rogers Hornsby and Ryne Sandberg, as the only second basemen to ever hit 40 or more homers while scoring 100 runs and driving in 100. Around the excellent run production, Lowe still has too much swing-and-miss in his game (bottom seventh percentile), but the strikeout rate has improved over the ugly rate from the 2019 season. The full-time playing time also meant increased exposure to lefties, and while he did hit 10 of his 39 homers against lefties, his .198 average and 34.0% strikeout rate against them in 188 plate appearances explain why his batting average tumbled from the prior two seasons. His 2022 should be another above-average offense campaign, but it will be tough for him to hit even .250 against southpaws.
Lowe is 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds, yet continues to barrel the baseball like few others in the game. Lowe hits what the local radio team calls "Helium Balls" because they tend to just stay in the air longer than most flyballs until they find the seats. For the first six weeks of the 2020 season, Lowe was a leading candidate for the AL MVP as he had a .273/.371/.612 slash line with 10 homers, 26 runs, and 27 RBI heading into September. He cooled off a bit with a .264/.345/.458 line the rest of the way, but then was downright abysmal in the playoffs, hitting .118/.183/.276 around the two-homer game in the World Series with a 34% strikeout rate. He hit .300 with six homers against lefties in 2020, somewhat quieting the concerns of him being platooned, but the postseason slump is definitely concerning. The strikeouts limit his batting average upside, but he does accept his walks and hits with power to all fields.
Lowe inked a six-year, $24 million extension last March, ensuring he would hold a vital role for the Rays right away after a strong 43-game cameo in 2018. Injuries effectively kept Lowe out of the mix after the All-Star break, but his big first half still made his season an unequivocal success. Initially tabbed for a utility role, the 25-year-old settled at the keystone and was among the top fantasy options at the position when healthy, slashing .276/.339/.523 with 16 homers and five steals before the break. If injuries hadn't intervened, Lowe may have been headed for a drop-off, as his 33.9 K% and .381 BABIP loomed as major signs that the .276 average would fall. Lowe's ability to rack up counting stats appears more repeatable based on his Statcast metrics, so as long as fantasy managers can deal with a sub-.250 average and the Rays benching him versus lefties, there's still value to be had.
It's difficult to make heads or tails of Lowe. He totaled 28 homers and posted wRC+ marks of 156 and 178 at Double-A and Triple-A, respectively, last season. Lowe was also 13% better than league average, offensively, in his first foray into the major leagues. However, he was relatively old for those levels in the minors and had a 25.7% strikeout rate in the big leagues. Statcast suggests he was a .220-ish hitter. His 77.4% zone-contact rate was way below league average and is a red flag looking ahead to 2019 and beyond. There is some speed here to go along with the pop, and Lowe has shown that he will accept his walks. After the Rays traded Mallex Smith, general manager Erik Neander said publicly that Lowe will be in the mix for a spot on the Opening Day roster, but a starting spot seems unlikely barring multiple injuries in front of him on the depth chart.
More Fantasy News
Drives in pair
2BTampa Bay Rays
May 27, 2023
Lowe went 1-for-4 with two RBI on Friday against the Dodgers.
ANALYSIS
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Returns to lineup Thursday
2BTampa Bay Rays
May 25, 2023
Lowe (neck) is back in the starting lineup Thursday versus the Blue Jays, Ryan Bass of Bally Sports Sun reports.
ANALYSIS
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Expects to be back Thursday
2BTampa Bay Rays
Neck
May 24, 2023
Lowe (neck) said Wednesday that he feels "100 times better" and expects to return to the lineup for Thursday's series finale with the Blue Jays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Scratched from Tuesday's lineup
2BTampa Bay Rays
Neck
May 23, 2023
Lowe was scratched from Tuesday's game against Toronto due to a stiff neck, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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On bench versus lefty
2BTampa Bay Rays
May 20, 2023
Lowe is not in the starting lineup Saturday versus Milwaukee.
ANALYSIS
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