Gavin Lux

Gavin Lux

25-Year-Old Second Baseman2B
Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Lux was quietly pacing towards a breakthrough season with a .297/.373/.439 line through August 22. He then was bothered by neck and back issues, dropping his numbers to .162/.197/.191 line for the rest of the season. Lux hit fewer fly balls and his HR/FB dropped to a career-low 6.2%, but the added groundballs fueled a career-best .341 BABIP. Lux knocked a career-high 20 doubles, so despite a dip in home runs, his ISO and slugging were new personal bests. Plus, home run estimators suggest double-digits are plausible with a little more luck. Lux still seven bases in nine tries, lumping him with those having a chance to run more with the new rules. Unless he changes his approach to loft more batted balls, Lux's power will be secondary to a developing hit tool and latent speed. The September swoon could keep the price to the point it's worth finding out if Lux has another level. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#227
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $566,000 contract with the Dodgers in March of 2020.
Hits bench against lefty
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
October 14, 2022
Lux will sit for Game 3 of the NLDS against the Padres on Friday.
ANALYSIS
The Dodgers are going with a righty-heavy lineup against southpaw Blake Snell. Max Muncy will handle second base in Lux's absence, with Austin Barnes entering in the lineup in his place, pushing Will Smith to designated hitter and Justin Turner out to Muncy's former spot at the hot corner.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
11
26
16
37
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
2
22
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+24%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+12%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+40%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+89%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .602 216 20 2 17 1 .224 .306 .297
Since 2020vs Right .748 703 103 14 79 11 .264 .340 .408
2022vs Left .684 109 13 1 11 0 .263 .330 .354
2022vs Right .764 362 53 5 31 7 .280 .351 .413
2021vs Left .533 98 7 1 5 1 .188 .286 .247
2021vs Right .747 283 42 6 41 3 .260 .343 .404
2020vs Left .347 9 0 0 1 0 .125 .222 .125
2020vs Right .655 58 8 3 7 1 .189 .259 .396
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+7%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+7%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+3%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+63%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .687 436 53 6 44 7 .240 .321 .366
Since 2020Away .736 484 70 10 52 5 .267 .341 .395
2022Home .720 228 26 1 17 5 .266 .333 .386
2022Away .769 243 40 5 25 2 .285 .358 .411
2021Home .682 181 24 5 27 1 .222 .315 .367
2021Away .702 200 25 2 19 3 .260 .340 .362
2020Home .433 27 3 0 0 1 .130 .259 .174
2020Away .705 41 5 3 8 0 .205 .244 .462
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Stat Review
How does Gavin Lux compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.49
 
BB Rate
10.0%
 
K Rate
20.2%
 
BABIP
.341
 
ISO
.124
 
AVG
.276
 
OBP
.346
 
SLG
.399
 
OPS
.745
 
wOBA
.330
 
Exit Velocity
88.0 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
28.6%
 
Barrels/PA
4.2%
 
Expected BA
.247
 
Expected SLG
.372
 
Sprint Speed
23.8 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
48.9%
 
Line Drive %
21.6%
 
Fly Ball %
29.5%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2017
What an up-and-down season for Lux. He started the season on the injured list (wrist) and then returned to part-time at-bats, sitting against lefties. Then in July, he hurt his hamstring and missed about a month. After that, he got demoted for a couple weeks. Finally, Lux was recalled to play the outfield and was on fire to end the season (.360/.467/.500 over the final month). He's played in three different seasons and hasn't even reached 162 games played. In 532 career PA, he has 12 homers, seven steals and a .233 average. Nick Solak had similar numbers in 2021. The 23-year-old Lux has several ways to improve to take the next step forward. He could air out more hits by dropping his 47.2 GB%. Tapping into more power would push up his 8.8% HR/FB. Finally, he could start hitting lefties (.499 OPS vs. LHP, .735 OPS vs. RHP), like he did as a prospect. Don't count on that all happening right away.
What a disappointing season for Lux. Considered a top prospect and having performed capably enough in his 23-game debut in 2019, the young infielder appeared set for a significant role in one of the strongest lineups in the league and was drafted as such for most of the offseason, despite the occasional whisper that his role and even roster spot were hardly secure. As it turns out, a consequence of the Dodgers having one of the league's best lineups is that they didn't need to give many at-bats to unproven youngsters, no matter how talented. Lux failed to crack the Opening Day roster and went on to receive just 69 plate appearances over 19 games. The Dodgers claimed that was for performance rather than service-time reasons, something his .175/.246/.349 line backs up. Lux's talent is presumably still there, but role and readiness questions remain, and the depths of his struggles add new risk to his profile.
In 2018, Lux proved to have one of the best hit tools in the minors, and in 2019 he grew into plus power and made his big-league debut in September. He logged a 31.5 Hard% in the minors (good for a 21-year-old middle infielder) and 52.9 Hard% in the majors (elite) while spraying line drives to all fields. An above-average runner, Lux played through a hamstring injury, which limited him to 16 stolen-base attempts after attempting 21 in 2018. He could pilfer 15 bases with good health as a rookie. Lux can handle shortstop but is a better fit at second base. While his strikeout rate spiked from 19.5% at Double-A and Triple-A to 29.3% in his MLB debut, his 20.9 O-Swing% would have been the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters, so strikeouts shouldn't be a major issue over his first full season. He is good at everything that matters in fantasy and could become one of the game's top hitters in short order.
Lux cut his groundball rate from 52.7% at Low-A to 41.7% across stops at High-A and Double-A, and in the process emerged as a potential five-category middle infielder. Save for an eight-game run in the Pioneer League in 2016, his walk rates have always been north of 10% with strikeout rates below 20%, so the plate skills have always been there, and his 2018 swing change unlocked a potentially plus hit tool with at least average power. He is a good athlete with above-average speed, and while he attempted 15 fewer steals last year (22) than he did in 2017 (37), Lux should still be able to swipe double-digit bases annually early on in his big-league career. His defense at shortstop is lacking, and his arm isn’t accurate enough for third base, so a move to the keystone seems likely in the coming years. If Lux's revamped swing continues to produce results in the upper levels, he would project to take over as the Dodgers' everyday second baseman in 2020.
The Dodgers made Lux their first selection of the 2016 Draft, selecting him out of Indian Trail High School in Wisconsin, a state not typically known for producing MLB talent. He is also one of just three position players taken by the Dodgers in the first round since 2004. Initially committed to play for Arizona State, the left-handed hitting shortstop decided to sign with the Dodgers for $2.3 million and displayed his talents well enough in rookie ball, hitting .296/.375/.399 between the Arizona and Pioneer leagues. The Dodgers are obviously well set at shortstop for the future with Corey Seager, but the 19-year-old Lux is far enough away from the majors that Seager really shouldn't be the biggest concern for his prospective dynasty league owners. Lux will likely begin 2017 at Low-A Great Lakes and work his way up from there, with High-A Rancho Cucamonga a possibility if his bat looks advanced enough. The key to his future fantasy value will be the development of at least fringe average power to go with what appears to be a strong hit tool.
More Fantasy News
Added to Saturday's lineup
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
October 1, 2022
Lux was added to the lineup for Saturday's game against Colorado, Kirsten Watson of SportsNet LA reports.
ANALYSIS
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Resting Saturday
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
October 1, 2022
Lux isn't in the lineup Saturday against Colorado, Juan Toribio of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Day off Thursday
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 29, 2022
Lux isn't in the lineup for Thursday's contest in San Diego, Juan Toribio of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Sits versus lefty
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 27, 2022
Lux isn't starting Tuesday against the Padres, Kirsten Watson of SportsNet LA reports.
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Sits against southpaw
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 24, 2022
Lux isn't in the lineup Saturday against the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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