Gavin Lux

27-Year-Old Second Baseman2B

Cincinnati Reds

2024 Stats

AVG

.251

RBI

2025 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Lux's 2024 season was a tale of two halves. He batted just .213 with three homers over 76 games prior to the All-Star break, but the Dodgers stuck with him, and the infielder turned things around with a much more intriguing .304 batting average and seven long balls the rest of the way. Even after heating up, however, Lux largely sat against lefty hurlers -- he logged just 46 at-bats versus southpaws as opposed to 393 against right-handers during the campaign. While Lux's second-half surge was promising, it's hard as a fantasy manager to get excited about a player who barely reaches double-digit homers and rarely steals a base (Lux finished the campaign with five thefts). Lux's playing time was hardly guaranteed in Los Angeles, so being traded to Cincinnati in January provides him a much clearer path to a regular lineup spot. Having hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park as his home field should also boost his offensive profile. The change of scenery could allow Lux to settle in and reach his offensive potential, and he's an upside play for fantasy managers willing to take on his inconsistent track record through three full seasons. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

#347

ADP

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 190

DOB 11/23/1997

Born Kenosha, WI

College None

Drafted 1st Rd 2016 LAD

Role to be determined

2BCincinnati Reds

February 18, 2025

Reds manager Terry Francona said Tuesday that Lux will start at second base in Saturday's Cactus League game against the Guardians, then move to third base for Sunday's exhibition clash against the Brewers, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports. Earlier in the day, Francona indicated he wants Matt McLain to be the team's primary second baseman.

ANALYSIS
There was offseason chatter about McLain moving to center field, which suggested Lux would find a permanent role at second base, but Francona's plans for the start of Cactus League play indicate otherwise. The manager said earlier in camp that Lux will see time at all the infield base positions as well as outfield during spring training. He's expected to serve on the dirt for the first part of the spring schedule before the manager exposes him to the outfield.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+27%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+88%

OPS vs RHP

2023

No Stats

2022

+12%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.592	159	20	1	13	0	.228	.296	.297
Since 2022vs Right	.750	799	105	15	79	12	.270	.340	.410
2024vs Left	.394	50	7	0	2	0	.152	.220	.174
2024vs Right	.739	437	52	10	48	5	.262	.332	.407
2023vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022vs Left	.684	109	13	1	11	0	.263	.330	.354
2022vs Right	.764	362	53	5	31	7	.280	.351	.413
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+8%

OPS on Road

2024

+10%

OPS on Road

2023

No Stats

2022

+7%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.695	463	52	7	42	7	.249	.313	.382
Since 2022Away	.751	495	73	9	50	5	.276	.352	.400
2024Home	.670	235	26	6	25	2	.233	.294	.377
2024Away	.734	252	33	4	25	3	.268	.345	.388
2023Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022Home	.720	228	26	1	17	5	.266	.333	.386
2022Away	.769	243	40	5	25	2	.285	.358	.411
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Stat Review

How does Gavin Lux compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.40

BB Rate

9.0%

K Rate

22.6%

BABIP

.312

ISO

.132

AVG

.251

OBP

.320

SLG

.383

OPS

.703

wOBA

.313

Exit Velocity

88.3 mph

Hard Hit Rate

30.3%

Barrels/PA

4.1%

Expected BA

.259

Expected SLG

.386

Sprint Speed

22.6 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

48.6%

Line Drive %

21.5%

Fly Ball %

29.9%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Gavin Lux Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2017

Lux was an offensive monster in the the Dodger farm system, but that success did not translate to the big league level over two seasons while his third was washed out by a gruesome knee injury in spring training. A look back at his 2022 rankings show an 89th percentile sprint speed which is almost certain to take a hit coming off his major leg injury leaving only his plate discipline as his major plus skill. To date as a major leaguer, Lux has done most of his damage off fastballs while struggling to handle pitches with wrinkles and changes of speed so it will be interesting to see how the year layoff from live action changes anything. On another team, Lux's plate discipline could earn him a higher spot in the lineup, but the top four of the Dodger lineup is set in stone so expect Lux to live in the bottom third of the lineup unless the third year breakout he missed due to injury last year surfaces early this season.

Lux was quietly pacing towards a breakthrough season with a .297/.373/.439 line through August 22. He then was bothered by neck and back issues, dropping his numbers to .162/.197/.191 line for the rest of the season. Lux hit fewer fly balls and his HR/FB dropped to a career-low 6.2%, but the added groundballs fueled a career-best .341 BABIP. Lux knocked a career-high 20 doubles, so despite a dip in home runs, his ISO and slugging were new personal bests. Plus, home run estimators suggest double-digits are plausible with a little more luck. Lux still seven bases in nine tries, lumping him with those having a chance to run more with the new rules. Unless he changes his approach to loft more batted balls, Lux's power will be secondary to a developing hit tool and latent speed. The September swoon could keep the price to the point it's worth finding out if Lux has another level.

What an up-and-down season for Lux. He started the season on the injured list (wrist) and then returned to part-time at-bats, sitting against lefties. Then in July, he hurt his hamstring and missed about a month. After that, he got demoted for a couple weeks. Finally, Lux was recalled to play the outfield and was on fire to end the season (.360/.467/.500 over the final month). He's played in three different seasons and hasn't even reached 162 games played. In 532 career PA, he has 12 homers, seven steals and a .233 average. Nick Solak had similar numbers in 2021. The 23-year-old Lux has several ways to improve to take the next step forward. He could air out more hits by dropping his 47.2 GB%. Tapping into more power would push up his 8.8% HR/FB. Finally, he could start hitting lefties (.499 OPS vs. LHP, .735 OPS vs. RHP), like he did as a prospect. Don't count on that all happening right away.

What a disappointing season for Lux. Considered a top prospect and having performed capably enough in his 23-game debut in 2019, the young infielder appeared set for a significant role in one of the strongest lineups in the league and was drafted as such for most of the offseason, despite the occasional whisper that his role and even roster spot were hardly secure. As it turns out, a consequence of the Dodgers having one of the league's best lineups is that they didn't need to give many at-bats to unproven youngsters, no matter how talented. Lux failed to crack the Opening Day roster and went on to receive just 69 plate appearances over 19 games. The Dodgers claimed that was for performance rather than service-time reasons, something his .175/.246/.349 line backs up. Lux's talent is presumably still there, but role and readiness questions remain, and the depths of his struggles add new risk to his profile.

In 2018, Lux proved to have one of the best hit tools in the minors, and in 2019 he grew into plus power and made his big-league debut in September. He logged a 31.5 Hard% in the minors (good for a 21-year-old middle infielder) and 52.9 Hard% in the majors (elite) while spraying line drives to all fields. An above-average runner, Lux played through a hamstring injury, which limited him to 16 stolen-base attempts after attempting 21 in 2018. He could pilfer 15 bases with good health as a rookie. Lux can handle shortstop but is a better fit at second base. While his strikeout rate spiked from 19.5% at Double-A and Triple-A to 29.3% in his MLB debut, his 20.9 O-Swing% would have been the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters, so strikeouts shouldn't be a major issue over his first full season. He is good at everything that matters in fantasy and could become one of the game's top hitters in short order.

Lux cut his groundball rate from 52.7% at Low-A to 41.7% across stops at High-A and Double-A, and in the process emerged as a potential five-category middle infielder. Save for an eight-game run in the Pioneer League in 2016, his walk rates have always been north of 10% with strikeout rates below 20%, so the plate skills have always been there, and his 2018 swing change unlocked a potentially plus hit tool with at least average power. He is a good athlete with above-average speed, and while he attempted 15 fewer steals last year (22) than he did in 2017 (37), Lux should still be able to swipe double-digit bases annually early on in his big-league career. His defense at shortstop is lacking, and his arm isn’t accurate enough for third base, so a move to the keystone seems likely in the coming years. If Lux's revamped swing continues to produce results in the upper levels, he would project to take over as the Dodgers' everyday second baseman in 2020.

The Dodgers made Lux their first selection of the 2016 Draft, selecting him out of Indian Trail High School in Wisconsin, a state not typically known for producing MLB talent. He is also one of just three position players taken by the Dodgers in the first round since 2004. Initially committed to play for Arizona State, the left-handed hitting shortstop decided to sign with the Dodgers for $2.3 million and displayed his talents well enough in rookie ball, hitting .296/.375/.399 between the Arizona and Pioneer leagues. The Dodgers are obviously well set at shortstop for the future with Corey Seager, but the 19-year-old Lux is far enough away from the majors that Seager really shouldn't be the biggest concern for his prospective dynasty league owners. Lux will likely begin 2017 at Low-A Great Lakes and work his way up from there, with High-A Rancho Cucamonga a possibility if his bat looks advanced enough. The key to his future fantasy value will be the development of at least fringe average power to go with what appears to be a strong hit tool.

More Fantasy News

To move around in spring

2BCincinnati Reds

February 11, 2025

Lux is expected to see time at first, second and third base as well as the outfield this spring, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.