Hunter Greene

Hunter Greene

24-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cincinnati Reds
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Greene didn't earn his first win until May 26 and a hip injury cost him two months during the summer. He struggled to a 6.52 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in eight starts following his return in August, leaving him with a 4.82 and 1.42 WHIP in 112 innings overall. The much-hyped flamethrowing righty hit 105 mph on the radar gun in his 2023 debut and the slider once again enjoyed a great deal of success (.175 xBA, 39.2 Whiff%) on the heels of the fastball. The ERA estimators paint an encouraging picture, but many of the same problems remain for Greene, namely the fact that the changeup is still a distant third pitch that he uses primarily against lefties to marginal success. Home runs have been a big problem in Great American Ball Park (2.2 HR/9, 20.7% HR/FB at home for his career). He will still be just 24 years old for most of 2024 and the Reds are trending upward as a team, but big-league hitters can catch up to elite velocity when they're sitting on it, and without further development of the changeup Greene will likely continue to battle inconsistency as a member of the Cincinnati rotation. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#140
ADP
$Signed a six-year, $53 million contract extension with the Reds in April of 2023. Contract includes $21 million team option ($2 million buyout) for 2029.
Posts season-high 10 Ks
PCincinnati Reds
July 11, 2024
Greene (6-4) earned the win Thursday, allowing one run on two hits and two walks over six innings against the Rockies. He struck out 10.
ANALYSIS
Greene, who was added to the NL All-Star roster a couple of days ago, validated that selection by allowing just a single earned run and only four baserunners while fanning a season-high 10 batters over six innings. It's the fifth time in his last six outings the right-hander has allowed two or fewer runs, a feat he's now accomplished 13 times in 19 starts this season. Greene heads into the All-Star break with a 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 126 strikeouts over 110.1 innings.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
101
Last 10 Games
103
Last 5 Games
99
How many pitches does Hunter Greene generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Hunter Greene generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-18%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-25%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .203 750 251 78 131 31 3 25
Since 2022vs Right .248 734 191 63 162 39 4 28
2024vs Left .189 232 72 23 37 9 1 5
2024vs Right .211 224 54 22 41 7 2 5
2023vs Left .215 244 83 28 45 11 2 9
2023vs Right .288 253 69 20 66 22 2 10
2022vs Left .205 274 96 27 49 11 0 11
2022vs Right .239 257 68 21 55 10 0 13
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-12%
ERA on Road
2024
 
 
-36%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-9%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-10%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 4.51 1.30 163.2 7 13 0 10.9 3.8 1.7
Since 2022Away 3.95 1.20 184.1 8 11 0 11.9 3.5 1.1
2024Home 3.94 1.22 64.0 3 3 0 10.4 3.7 1.0
2024Away 2.53 0.97 46.1 3 1 0 10.1 3.7 0.6
2023Home 5.13 1.44 40.1 1 4 0 12.7 4.2 2.7
2023Away 4.65 1.41 71.2 3 3 0 11.9 3.6 0.9
2022Home 4.70 1.28 59.1 3 6 0 10.3 3.6 1.8
2022Away 4.21 1.15 66.1 2 7 0 13.0 3.3 1.6
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Stat Review
How does Hunter Greene compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.80
 
K/9
10.3
 
BB/9
3.7
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
97.8 mph
 
ERA
3.34
 
WHIP
1.11
 
BABIP
.269
 
GB/FB
0.76
 
Left On Base
74.3%
 
Exit Velocity
80.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
2.8%
 
Spin Rate
2289 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
17.6%
 
Swinging Strike
13.5%
 
Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Greene comes with a once-in-a-lifetime fastball, a ton of hype and a lot of promise. As a rookie in 2022, Greene threw 337 pitches at 100-plus mph, the most ever for a starting pitcher in a single season, shattering Noah Syndergaard's previous record of 199 pitches at that velocity. It wasn't all sunshine and roses, however. Greene endured a couple blowups and admitted to bagging his changeup on occasion. As tremendous as the fastball velo is, he will likely need more than the fastball and slider to enjoy sustained success in the rotation at the big-league level. He needs to keep hitters honest and prevent them from sitting dead red on the heater (17 homers against the four-seamer last season). The Reds will give the righty a long leash to make it as a starting pitcher. Expect high highs but also additional growing pains in 2023.
It was a lock that Cincinnati would add Greene to the 40-man roster this offseason, and we even got a report in November that he will be competing for a rotation spot in spring training. With Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and even Tyler Mahle on the trade block, Greene could realistically break camp in the big-league rotation, and at the very least, the bulk of his 2022 innings will come in the majors. Things couldn't have gone any better for Greene in 2021, and his 2019 Tommy John surgery now seems like a distant memory. He logged a 3.30 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a 139:39 K:BB in 106.1 IP across Double-A and Triple-A. Greene's fastball can sit at 100 mph when he's humming, and his hard slider gives him a second plus pitch. Even though his fastball has elite velocity, it doesn't have elite movement, so he still gives up homers off it in the top half of the zone. However, his fastball's velocity allows for his slider and third-pitch changeup to play up, so it's a valuable pitch on the whole. Greene isn't a perfect pitching prospect, but he has big stuff and is very close to debuting in the majors.
Greene will be a full two years removed from his Tommy John surgery at the projected start of the 2021 regular season. Still, the chances of him pitching in the major leagues in 2021 are incredibly slim given everything that stacks up against him. He is 21 years old with 72.2 innings of professional baseball under his belt. He has a fastball for days which we know can touch 103 mph, but the other pitches need time to develop and he simply needs time to hone his craft after missing the past two seasons of competitive baseball. Even if everything goes smoothly in his return to game action, Greene is unlikely to debut until 2023. The potential for stardom is still there for the 2017 first-round pick, but the opportunity is far off on the horizon and there will likely be more bumps along the way.
Greene and the Reds decided to take the rest-and-rehab route with his torn UCL, and to the surprise of very few, it did not work out. What was lost was essentially eight months of would-be recovery time; Greene was first diagnosed with a sprained UCL in his right elbow in early August of 2018 and did not undergo Tommy John surgery until April 9. The second overall pick in 2017 after landing a Sports Illustrated cover with the caption "The Star Baseball Needs," Greene was always seen as a Tommy John risk given his upper-90s velocity out of high school. The procedure obviously slows his development timeline, but Greene is only 20 years old and his future remains bright. Expect the 6-foot-4 righty to push closer to the long end of the typical 12-18 month recovery window from TJS. He should pitch 50 or so innings at the low levels late in the season before building back up in earnest in 2021.
Greene showed flashes of his immense upside last season, but his career is in a bit of a holding pattern due to an elbow injury. After some initial bumps in the road with Low-A Dayton, Greene, the second overall pick in the 2017 first-year player draft, went on to post ace-like numbers over a 10-start stretch (2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 59:9 K:BB in 49 innings). The good fortune ran out -- Greene turned in a few abbreviated outings in July before being diagnosed with a sprained UCL in his right elbow. Usually, the course of action with that diagnosis is Tommy John surgery, but Greene opted against surgery. It's risky to pass on the procedure. For many players, the alternative routes still end up leading to the same destination and they simply delay the inevitable. Greene started throwing off a mound in December and should be a full participant in spring training if he avoids setbacks, but the potential for TJS before he reaches MLB is still an elephant in the room.
Greene only logged 4.1 innings (three starts) on the mound after receiving the largest bonus ($7.23 million) of any player in the 2017 draft. The Reds deployed him as a designated hitter initially, in part to see how he stacked up against pro pitching and also to get him acclimated while limiting his innings. He was then transitioned to the hill, where he figures to spend the rest of his career. He sat at 99-to-100 mph with his fastball in each of his outings, never throwing more than 35 pitches. At 6-foot-4, 197 pounds, he has a prototypical starter’s frame. Some evaluators believe he is the most athletic prep righty to come along in 20 years. This athleticism leads to plus projections on his command. Until his secondary pitches can be thrown with confidence, he will be prone to some ugly stat lines, but it’s important not to focus on that right now. He’s throwing gas, he’s healthy, all is good. Look for him to be held back in extended spring training, before eventually finishing the year with Low-A Dayton.
More Fantasy News
Let down by bullpen in superb start
PCincinnati Reds
July 6, 2024
Greene pitched seven scoreless innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Saturday. He allowed three hits and issued two walks while striking out seven batters.
ANALYSIS
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Handed loss in St. Louis
PCincinnati Reds
June 30, 2024
Grene (5-4) allowed a run on four hits and two walks over 4.2 innings Sunday, striking out six and taking a loss against the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Buckles against Bucs
PCincinnati Reds
June 26, 2024
Greene (5-3) took the loss Tuesday, surrendering six runs on seven hits and two walks over four innings as the Reds fell 9-5 to the Pirates. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out nine
PCincinnati Reds
June 19, 2024
Greene allowed just two hits over 6.1 innings in a no-decision Wednesday against the Pirates. He struck out nine.
ANALYSIS
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Picks up fifth win
PCincinnati Reds
June 14, 2024
Greene (5-2) allowed two runs on three hits and five walks over five innings Friday, striking out five and earning a win over the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Clearing quantity hurdles
PCincinnati Reds
September 20, 2022
Greene and teammate Graham Ashcraft maybe not have to face an innings restriction in future seasons, with Cincinnati manager David Bell recently saying, "I don't know that we'll have to worry about their innings after this year," via Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer.
ANALYSIS
Greene recently returned from a shoulder injury and has continued logging productive innings for the Reds. He's logged a sparkling 2.15 ERA over his past five starts. The 23-year-old and No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 Draft has logged 108.2 innings at the big-league level this season.
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