Hunter Greene

Greene didn't earn his first win until May 26 and a hip injury cost him two months during the summer. He struggled to a 6.52 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in eight starts following his return in August, leaving him with a 4.82 and 1.42 WHIP in 112 innings overall. The much-hyped flamethrowing righty hit 105 mph on the radar gun in his 2023 debut and the slider once again enjoyed a great deal of success (.175 xBA, 39.2 Whiff%) on the heels of the fastball. The ERA estimators paint an encouraging picture, but many of the same problems remain for Greene, namely the fact that the changeup is still a distant third pitch that he uses primarily against lefties to marginal success. Home runs have been a big problem in Great American Ball Park (2.2 HR/9, 20.7% HR/FB at home for his career). He will still be just 24 years old for most of 2024 and the Reds are trending upward as a team, but big-league hitters can catch up to elite velocity when they're sitting on it, and without further development of the changeup Greene will likely continue to battle inconsistency as a member of the Cincinnati rotation.

Greene comes with a once-in-a-lifetime fastball, a ton of hype and a lot of promise. As a rookie in 2022, Greene threw 337 pitches at 100-plus mph, the most ever for a starting pitcher in a single season, shattering Noah Syndergaard's previous record of 199 pitches at that velocity. It wasn't all sunshine and roses, however. Greene endured a couple blowups and admitted to bagging his changeup on occasion. As tremendous as the fastball velo is, he will likely need more than the fastball and slider to enjoy sustained success in the rotation at the big-league level. He needs to keep hitters honest and prevent them from sitting dead red on the heater (17 homers against the four-seamer last season). The Reds will give the righty a long leash to make it as a starting pitcher. Expect high highs but also additional growing pains in 2023.

It was a lock that Cincinnati would add Greene to the 40-man roster this offseason, and we even got a report in November that he will be competing for a rotation spot in spring training. With Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and even Tyler Mahle on the trade block, Greene could realistically break camp in the big-league rotation, and at the very least, the bulk of his 2022 innings will come in the majors. Things couldn't have gone any better for Greene in 2021, and his 2019 Tommy John surgery now seems like a distant memory. He logged a 3.30 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a 139:39 K:BB in 106.1 IP across Double-A and Triple-A. Greene's fastball can sit at 100 mph when he's humming, and his hard slider gives him a second plus pitch. Even though his fastball has elite velocity, it doesn't have elite movement, so he still gives up homers off it in the top half of the zone. However, his fastball's velocity allows for his slider and third-pitch changeup to play up, so it's a valuable pitch on the whole. Greene isn't a perfect pitching prospect, but he has big stuff and is very close to debuting in the majors.

Greene will be a full two years removed from his Tommy John surgery at the projected start of the 2021 regular season. Still, the chances of him pitching in the major leagues in 2021 are incredibly slim given everything that stacks up against him. He is 21 years old with 72.2 innings of professional baseball under his belt. He has a fastball for days which we know can touch 103 mph, but the other pitches need time to develop and he simply needs time to hone his craft after missing the past two seasons of competitive baseball. Even if everything goes smoothly in his return to game action, Greene is unlikely to debut until 2023. The potential for stardom is still there for the 2017 first-round pick, but the opportunity is far off on the horizon and there will likely be more bumps along the way.

Greene and the Reds decided to take the rest-and-rehab route with his torn UCL, and to the surprise of very few, it did not work out. What was lost was essentially eight months of would-be recovery time; Greene was first diagnosed with a sprained UCL in his right elbow in early August of 2018 and did not undergo Tommy John surgery until April 9. The second overall pick in 2017 after landing a Sports Illustrated cover with the caption "The Star Baseball Needs," Greene was always seen as a Tommy John risk given his upper-90s velocity out of high school. The procedure obviously slows his development timeline, but Greene is only 20 years old and his future remains bright. Expect the 6-foot-4 righty to push closer to the long end of the typical 12-18 month recovery window from TJS. He should pitch 50 or so innings at the low levels late in the season before building back up in earnest in 2021.

Greene showed flashes of his immense upside last season, but his career is in a bit of a holding pattern due to an elbow injury. After some initial bumps in the road with Low-A Dayton, Greene, the second overall pick in the 2017 first-year player draft, went on to post ace-like numbers over a 10-start stretch (2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 59:9 K:BB in 49 innings). The good fortune ran out -- Greene turned in a few abbreviated outings in July before being diagnosed with a sprained UCL in his right elbow. Usually, the course of action with that diagnosis is Tommy John surgery, but Greene opted against surgery. It's risky to pass on the procedure. For many players, the alternative routes still end up leading to the same destination and they simply delay the inevitable. Greene started throwing off a mound in December and should be a full participant in spring training if he avoids setbacks, but the potential for TJS before he reaches MLB is still an elephant in the room.

Greene only logged 4.1 innings (three starts) on the mound after receiving the largest bonus ($7.23 million) of any player in the 2017 draft. The Reds deployed him as a designated hitter initially, in part to see how he stacked up against pro pitching and also to get him acclimated while limiting his innings. He was then transitioned to the hill, where he figures to spend the rest of his career. He sat at 99-to-100 mph with his fastball in each of his outings, never throwing more than 35 pitches. At 6-foot-4, 197 pounds, he has a prototypical starter’s frame. Some evaluators believe he is the most athletic prep righty to come along in 20 years. This athleticism leads to plus projections on his command. Until his secondary pitches can be thrown with confidence, he will be prone to some ugly stat lines, but it’s important not to focus on that right now. He’s throwing gas, he’s healthy, all is good. Look for him to be held back in extended spring training, before eventually finishing the year with Low-A Dayton.