Max Fried

Fried slid seamlessly into the ace role for Atlanta after Mike Soroka went down with an Achilles tear in early August. The lefty was a perfect 7-0 during the regular season, allowing a mere two homers in 56 innings (4.9% HR/FB). He does not throw his fastball particularly hard or with much spin, but it's effective nonetheless and does its job setting up one of the best curveballs in the game. Fried's curveball had a 31.2 Whiff% in 2020, with opponents combining to hit just .175 against the pitch. While his third pitch is another variation of the breaker -- a slider -- it's good enough and distinct enough that it gives him a third unique look, compensating for the lack of a fully developed changeup. His O-Swing% and SwStr% portend a better strikeout rate than his 22.3% mark from last season and the team context is favorable, so expect the 27-year-old to be a popular SP2 target during draft season.

A strong spring coupled with injuries to Atlanta's rotation allowed Fried to break camp as the team's fifth starter and the lefty never looked back. He wound up making 30 starts and three relief appearances, finishing with 17 wins -- good for second most in the NL -- and 173 strikeouts across a career-high 165.2 innings. Much of Fried's success can be attributed to his improved control (2.6 BB/9) and updated repertoire; he ditched his changeup in favor of a slider that held opponents to a .240 wOBA, which he paired with his solid fastball and a curve which is one of the best in baseball. While his 4.02 ERA was unremarkable, the underlying numbers suggest Fried deserved better (3.72 FIP, 3.42 xFIP), as his batted-ball profile (53.6 GB% and 4.4 Barrel%) did not support his high home-run rate (1.1 HR/9). His team context is favorable and his rotation spot is safe; you're justified in getting aggressive.

Fried put together a decent run with the Braves last year, but it was a small sample, and he worked primarily out of the bullpen with the big club (five starts in 14 total appearances). His larger body of work as a starter at Triple-A left something to be desired; Fried finished with a 4.61 ERA in his 13 starts for Gwinnett, though the underlying numbers were more encouraging (24.4 K%, 3.56 FIP). Even with those better peripherals, Fried was still seen as a long shot to break camp in the big-league rotation, but he did just that, beating out the likes of Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright in spring training. The curveball is his best pitch, but Fried has also gained some steam on his fastball, now averaging 94 mph. A Tommy John survivor, Fried has maxed out at 118.2 innings and the team has made it clear that it will take measures to limit Fried's innings later in the season. How exactly the Braves go about doing that remains to be seen.

Fried debuted in the big-league rotation in September, but if he could have been developed on a perfect timetable, he may not have made his big-league debut until late 2018. Unfortunately, he missed significant developmental time in 2014 and 2015 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and needed to be added to the 40-man roster after 2016 -- when he spent the entire season at Low-A. This, coupled with the insane pitching depth in the Braves' system, accelerated his timetable, leading to an assignment to Double-A in 2017, skipping High-A altogether, and a brief two-start run at Triple-A before reaching the majors. Suffice to say, he is not quite ready to consistently get big-league hitters out. On the bright side, the 6-foot-4 southpaw has a two plus pitches in his fastball and curveball, and he figures to start the year at Triple-A, thanks to some veteran additions to the rotation. He still has No. 3 starter upside, but needs to improve his changeup and his command.

For the past two years, Fried has been more myth than substance, undoubtedly testing the patience of his dynasty league owners. He missed most of 2014 and all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery. At 22, he was a couple years older than most of the high-end talent at Low-A, but that was his assignment, as he was closer to 19 or 20 in baseball years. Fried's repertoire, which features a low-to-mid-90s fastball, plus curveball and average changeup that flashes plus, proved too much for Low-A hitters to handle, leading to a 26.4 percent strikeout rate. As with most pitchers in their first year back from elbow surgery, Fried's command and feel took a while to return to form, but judging from his second half, he was back to resembling a future No. 3 starter by year's end. The 6-foot-4 southpaw notched a 3.26 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 52:11 K:BB in his final 38.2 innings.

Fried did not pitch in 2015 following Tommy John surgery in August of 2014. Drafted seventh overall out of high school in 2012, he was the centerpiece in the deal that sent Justin Upton to San Diego last winter. Before suffering the UCL injury, Fried mostly struggled between rookie ball and Low-A, but the results so far hardly matter as he was just 20 years old when he threw his last in-game pitch. Standing 6-foot-4 and 170 pounds, Fried features three pitches which project as average or better in time, with his low-to-mid 90s fastball and biting curveball both having the potential to be plus offerings, and he has shown a strong feel for a changeup as well. His command and control are still works in progress, and may be the last things that return to him following reconstructive elbow surgery (as is typical). The rebuilding Braves will be sure to monitor Fried's pitch counts and workload throughout the year, but if Fried can avoid any further elbow issues and even flash his potential in 2016, his prospect star will be back on the rise.

Fried experienced elbow soreness in February, and while it appeared as though he would be ready to contribute at High-A at some point during the season following rest and rehab, he tossed just 10.2 innings in 2014 before he was shut down in late July with the nagging injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery in August, which will likely table his development for the bulk of 2015, although it's possible that he will be far enough along in his rehab to log time in the Arizona Fall League or in winter ball. When the Padres drafted him ninth overall in 2012, Fried drew comps to Cole Hamels and Clayton Kershaw, boasting a low-90s fastball, a cutter, and an excellent curveball as a teenager. Traded to the Braves as part of the Justin Upton deal in December, Fried will continue his rehab with a new organization this season. The ceiling is high enough to consider stashing him away in dynasty leagues, even though it's now unlikely that he'll pitch in the big leagues before 2017.

Fried, the Padres' 2012 first-round pick, exhibited some control issues in his first full professional season at Low-A Fort Wayne, posting a 4.3 BB/9 over 23 starts (118.2 innings). Drafted out of high school, Fried is polished for his age and he offers an outstanding arsenal -- featuring an elite curveball and developing changeup as secondary offerings that he utilizes effectively off of his four-seam and two-seam fastballs. He's also a very projectable left-hander with a 6-foot-4 frame. The left-hander posted a shiny 2.09 GO/AO mark in his full-season debut, which offsets his 7.6 K/9, although he's expected to miss more bats as he continues to refine his stuff.

The seventh overall pick of the 2012 draft, Fried pitched only 17.2 innings in the Arizona Rookie League, before calling it a year. Scouts are most impressed by the lefty's command and his curveball. In 2013, expect Fried to be among the most heavily followed prospects in the Padres' system as he has the physical build and potential of an elite starting pitcher. Considering the possibility for a limited workload in his first full professional season, Fried may be held back at extended spring training before getting his first exposure to the Midwest League.