Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

27-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Texas Rangers
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Lowe had a surprisingly terrific fantasy season in his second full season at the major leagues setting career highs nearly across the board. The .302 batting average was a huge surprise given he is not the quickest of players, but 19 infield hits on mostly weakly hit balls against the shift certainly helped push his batting average up this season. He also finally showed more consistent loft in his swing, and while he still has a 1.5:1 grounder to flyball ratio, that is an improvement over the 2.0 level he was living at in previous seasons. He has always been an excellent hitter when ahead in the count, but 2022 was the first time he wasn't futile when down in the count. Lowe hit .281 in such situations this past season going .179 in such situations previously. If you are banking on him hitting near .300 again, factor in that data point as well as the infield hits with the shifting rules changing. Draft for run production and level set your batting average projections a tercile lower. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#99
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.05 million contract with the Rangers in January of 2023.
Two hits to extend streak
1BTexas Rangers
May 25, 2023
Lowe went 2-for-4 with a walk, double and run scored in Wednesday's 3-2 win over the Pirates.
ANALYSIS
Lowe extended a hit streak to six games with a first-inning single. He later doubled and now is 12-for-23 (.522) with four walks, three doubles and seven runs scored during that stretch. The 27-year-old is putting together another fine season and ranks fifth in MLB among first basemen with 1.4 fWAR.
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Batting Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
40
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
17
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2021
Even Split
2023
 
 
+27%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+13%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+3%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021vs Left .811 507 60 15 58 1 .295 .365 .446
Since 2021vs Right .809 1038 130 36 125 9 .277 .354 .455
2023vs Left .675 89 11 1 10 0 .247 .337 .338
2023vs Right .857 169 30 5 25 0 .298 .367 .490
2022vs Left .920 211 26 10 29 0 .330 .384 .536
2022vs Right .817 434 48 17 47 2 .288 .346 .471
2021vs Left .754 207 23 4 19 1 .277 .357 .397
2021vs Right .780 435 52 14 53 7 .257 .356 .424
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+8%
OPS on Road
2023
 
 
+18%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+18%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+9%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021Home .776 747 93 22 83 5 .277 .352 .424
Since 2021Away .840 798 97 29 100 5 .289 .362 .478
2023Home .872 114 20 4 19 0 .293 .377 .495
2023Away .736 144 21 2 16 0 .271 .340 .395
2022Home .778 314 34 10 27 1 .280 .344 .434
2022Away .919 331 40 17 49 1 .322 .372 .547
2021Home .740 319 39 8 37 4 .268 .351 .389
2021Away .803 323 36 10 35 4 .260 .362 .440
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Stat Review
How does Nathaniel Lowe compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.54
 
BB Rate
10.7%
 
K Rate
19.8%
 
BABIP
.331
 
ISO
.149
 
AVG
.275
 
OBP
.353
 
SLG
.423
 
OPS
.777
 
wOBA
.342
 
Exit Velocity
90.1 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
35.6%
 
Barrels/PA
4.4%
 
Expected BA
.275
 
Expected SLG
.428
 
Sprint Speed
23.7 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
49.4%
 
Line Drive %
22.4%
 
Fly Ball %
28.2%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Nathaniel Lowe See More
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
In Lowe's first full MLB season, his output was acceptable. The 18 homers were disappointing from a first baseman, but he contributed eight steals after stealing five total in his five previous seasons. Hitting the ball hard is not the issue, with most of his Statcast hard-hit metrics in the league's top 25%. Instead, his power production will be limited if he continues to post a 55 GB%, a number that kept ballooning as the season went on (59.4 GB% in the second half, 62.8% in September). On the other hand, he did show a nice improvement in his plate discipline with his walk rate up and his strikeouts down from 36.8% to 25.2%. He's sort of morphing into an Eric Hosmer clone. His profile has been bouncing around, so it's tough to get a read on his future value. There is some hope for upside if he raises his launch angle and becomes more of a 30-homer hitter. Roster him late if you want but be ready to move on quickly if changes don't come.
Lowe opened the year at the Rays' alternate training site despite having demonstrated he can handle major-league pitching by posting a .779 OPS in 50 games the season prior. Injuries created a need for a corner bat, and Lowe was promoted Aug. 2. He started slow, slashing .071/.235/.143 over his first six games before closing on fire with a .409/.500/.864 line, though Lowe fanned at a 42% clip over those final seven games. Tampa Bay traded Lowe to Texas in December and he's slated to be the Rangers' regular first baseman. Lowe has proven all he can at the Triple-A level, but he's been unable to carry the contact shown in the minors to the major-league level. When he hits the ball, Lowe has made a lot of hard contact with a good mix of flyballs and groundballs to aid both average and power. It's speculative, but there are ample positive signs to take a late flier on Lowe at corner or utility.
Lowe appeared in his first 50 MLB games in 2019, holding his own with a .263/.325/.454 slash line (good for a 107 wRC+) and seven homers. On most teams that would be enough for him to at least start on the strong side of a platoon, but with Ji-Man Choi and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo already in the fold as left-handed hitters at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, Lowe could be ticketed for Triple-A. Scouts like both his power and contact, and he managed a strong .289/.421/.508 line in 93 games for Triple-A Durham. His plate discipline was particularly noteworthy over that stretch, as he posted a 17.7 BB% and a 20.2 K%, far better than his 7.7 BB% and 29.6 K% in the majors. He had an .888 OPS in 178 PA against same-handed pitching at Triple-A, so a move to a less platoon-happy organization would be a boon for his fantasy value. If the Rays stand pat, it could mean another year of inconsistent playing time.
Prior to 2018, Lowe’s claim to fame was being the older brother of Josh Lowe, the Rays’ selection with the No. 13 overall pick in 2016. Nathaniel was less heralded, transferring from Mercer to St. Johns River State College to Mississippi State before Tampa selected him in the 13th round in 2016. As an older first baseman with minimal pedigree, he wasn’t considered much of a prospect until he exploded in his third pro season. Lowe was the best hitter in the Florida State League (191 wRC+), got promoted to Double-A, was the best hitter in the Southern League (193 wRC+), and finally got challenged after a promotion to Triple-A. His walk rate dipped (15.6% to 7.3%), his strikeout rate spiked (13.3% to 24.5%) and his pull rate jumped by 11%. If he can recapture the patient, all-fields, flyball-oriented approach he showed at Double-A, Lowe will look the part of a big-league cleanup hitter. If not, there is some Quadruple-A hitter risk.
More Fantasy News
Doubles twice in three-hit effort
1BTexas Rangers
May 21, 2023
Lowe went 3-for-5 with two doubles and a run scored in Sunday's 13-3 win over the Rockies.
ANALYSIS
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Swats fifth homer
1BTexas Rangers
May 13, 2023
Lowe went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and an additional RBI in Saturday's victory over the Athletics.
ANALYSIS
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Extends hit streak
1BTexas Rangers
May 12, 2023
Lowe went 1-for-4 with a triple in Thursday's 4-0 win over Oakland.
ANALYSIS
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Joins home run barrage Sunday
1BTexas Rangers
May 1, 2023
Lowe went 1-for-2 with a two-run homer, two walks and three runs scored in Sunday's 15-2 win over the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
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Homers Tuesday
1BTexas Rangers
April 25, 2023
Lowe went 2-for-5 with a double, a home run and an additional run scored in Tuesday's loss to the Reds.
ANALYSIS
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