Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

29-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Texas Rangers
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Our 2023 outlook for Lowe came together rather well in the end as the first baseman regressed to previous levels in the face of the new rules. Lowe remains one of the more disciplined hitters in the league who will patiently work a count while looking for his pitch while being more than willing to accept a walk in any given situation. Lowe's issues against lefties (.223) helped pull his batting average down in 2023, but given he hit .277 and .330 against lefties in the previous two seasons, it would not surprise us to see him recover in 2024 to add some more life to his average. Despite his size, Lowe has league-average speed but Texas has not put him in motion over the past two seasons after allowing him some opportunities in 2021. Lowe is in an enviable position of playing daily in a potent lineup and has the potential to drive in 100 and even score 100 if the guys around him stay healthy all season. 2022 may have been his ceiling, but maybe not. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#237
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $7.5 million contract with the Rangers in January of 2024.
Ends slump
1BTexas Rangers
July 14, 2024
Lowe went 1-for-5 with an RBI in Saturday's 2-1 extra-inning win over the Astros.
ANALYSIS
Lowe snapped an 0-for-14 slump with a single in the top of the 10th inning that scored the go-ahead run. The Astros fed him a steady diet of changeups, and Lowe, who has a .138 average against that pitch in 2024, finally caught one in the extra frame.
Read More News
Batting Stats
Loading Batting Stats...
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2024 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
2023 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
2022 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
2021 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
2020 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
2019 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
Minor League Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Loading Minor League Batting Game Log...
Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
19
7
12
16
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
10
6
2
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+4%
OPS vs RHP
2024
 
 
+1%
OPS vs LHP
2023
 
 
+30%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+13%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .772 518 52 15 65 0 .278 .349 .422
Since 2022vs Right .806 1153 143 35 130 5 .278 .361 .445
2024vs Left .727 88 8 1 13 0 .286 .364 .364
2024vs Right .717 214 24 5 24 2 .253 .341 .376
2023vs Left .642 219 18 4 23 0 .223 .311 .332
2023vs Right .833 505 71 13 59 1 .279 .382 .451
2022vs Left .920 211 26 10 29 0 .330 .384 .536
2022vs Right .817 434 48 17 47 2 .288 .346 .471
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+3%
OPS on Road
2024
 
 
+7%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+7%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+18%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .783 808 99 25 89 4 .272 .351 .432
Since 2022Away .807 863 96 25 106 1 .283 .363 .444
2024Home .748 141 17 4 14 2 .258 .348 .400
2024Away .697 161 15 2 23 0 .266 .348 .350
2023Home .803 353 48 11 48 1 .270 .360 .443
2023Away .747 371 41 6 34 0 .253 .361 .386
2022Home .778 314 34 10 27 1 .280 .344 .434
2022Away .919 331 40 17 49 1 .322 .372 .547
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Nathaniel Lowe compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.52
 
BB Rate
11.6%
 
K Rate
22.2%
 
BABIP
.326
 
ISO
.110
 
AVG
.262
 
OBP
.348
 
SLG
.373
 
OPS
.720
 
wOBA
.324
 
Exit Velocity
89.1 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
26.6%
 
Barrels/PA
2.6%
 
Expected BA
.242
 
Expected SLG
.336
 
Sprint Speed
23.0 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
51.3%
 
Line Drive %
20.6%
 
Fly Ball %
28.1%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
Loading Advanced Batting Stats...
Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
Loading Games Played by Position...
Loading MLB Defensive Stats...
Batted Ball Stats
Loading Batted Ball Stats...
Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
Want more matchup stats?
Loading Matchup Stats...
Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.
Subscribe Now
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Nathaniel Lowe See More
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Saturday, July 13
4 days ago
For Saturday's main FanDuel MLB DFS slate, look for Kyle Schwarber, and the rest of the Phillies hitters, to have a good night against A's starter Mitch Spence.
MLB Points Leagues: Is There Hope for the Biggest First-Half Busts?
5 days ago
Dan Marcus looks at some of the biggest first-half disappointments, including Matt Olson, to see if their fortunes might improve after the All-Star break.
Weekly Hitter Rankings: The Queen City is Red Hot
11 days ago
Elly De La Cruz and the Cincinnati Reds host two subpar pitching staffs, as Todd Zola delivers the final Weekly Hitter Rankings before the All-Star break, covering the week of July 8-14.
MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Saturday, July 6
11 days ago
Oakland isn't usually a great place for offense, but a few visiting Baltimore hitters should be able to do some damage on Saturday's DraftKings MLB slate.
The Z Files: First-Half Hitters Review
13 days ago
Todd Zola reviews the first-half performance of the top hitters at each position and has remorse over fading Aaron Judge during draft season.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Lowe had a surprisingly terrific fantasy season in his second full season at the major leagues setting career highs nearly across the board. The .302 batting average was a huge surprise given he is not the quickest of players, but 19 infield hits on mostly weakly hit balls against the shift certainly helped push his batting average up this season. He also finally showed more consistent loft in his swing, and while he still has a 1.5:1 grounder to flyball ratio, that is an improvement over the 2.0 level he was living at in previous seasons. He has always been an excellent hitter when ahead in the count, but 2022 was the first time he wasn't futile when down in the count. Lowe hit .281 in such situations this past season going .179 in such situations previously. If you are banking on him hitting near .300 again, factor in that data point as well as the infield hits with the shifting rules changing. Draft for run production and level set your batting average projections a tercile lower.
In Lowe's first full MLB season, his output was acceptable. The 18 homers were disappointing from a first baseman, but he contributed eight steals after stealing five total in his five previous seasons. Hitting the ball hard is not the issue, with most of his Statcast hard-hit metrics in the league's top 25%. Instead, his power production will be limited if he continues to post a 55 GB%, a number that kept ballooning as the season went on (59.4 GB% in the second half, 62.8% in September). On the other hand, he did show a nice improvement in his plate discipline with his walk rate up and his strikeouts down from 36.8% to 25.2%. He's sort of morphing into an Eric Hosmer clone. His profile has been bouncing around, so it's tough to get a read on his future value. There is some hope for upside if he raises his launch angle and becomes more of a 30-homer hitter. Roster him late if you want but be ready to move on quickly if changes don't come.
Lowe opened the year at the Rays' alternate training site despite having demonstrated he can handle major-league pitching by posting a .779 OPS in 50 games the season prior. Injuries created a need for a corner bat, and Lowe was promoted Aug. 2. He started slow, slashing .071/.235/.143 over his first six games before closing on fire with a .409/.500/.864 line, though Lowe fanned at a 42% clip over those final seven games. Tampa Bay traded Lowe to Texas in December and he's slated to be the Rangers' regular first baseman. Lowe has proven all he can at the Triple-A level, but he's been unable to carry the contact shown in the minors to the major-league level. When he hits the ball, Lowe has made a lot of hard contact with a good mix of flyballs and groundballs to aid both average and power. It's speculative, but there are ample positive signs to take a late flier on Lowe at corner or utility.
Lowe appeared in his first 50 MLB games in 2019, holding his own with a .263/.325/.454 slash line (good for a 107 wRC+) and seven homers. On most teams that would be enough for him to at least start on the strong side of a platoon, but with Ji-Man Choi and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo already in the fold as left-handed hitters at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, Lowe could be ticketed for Triple-A. Scouts like both his power and contact, and he managed a strong .289/.421/.508 line in 93 games for Triple-A Durham. His plate discipline was particularly noteworthy over that stretch, as he posted a 17.7 BB% and a 20.2 K%, far better than his 7.7 BB% and 29.6 K% in the majors. He had an .888 OPS in 178 PA against same-handed pitching at Triple-A, so a move to a less platoon-happy organization would be a boon for his fantasy value. If the Rays stand pat, it could mean another year of inconsistent playing time.
Prior to 2018, Lowe’s claim to fame was being the older brother of Josh Lowe, the Rays’ selection with the No. 13 overall pick in 2016. Nathaniel was less heralded, transferring from Mercer to St. Johns River State College to Mississippi State before Tampa selected him in the 13th round in 2016. As an older first baseman with minimal pedigree, he wasn’t considered much of a prospect until he exploded in his third pro season. Lowe was the best hitter in the Florida State League (191 wRC+), got promoted to Double-A, was the best hitter in the Southern League (193 wRC+), and finally got challenged after a promotion to Triple-A. His walk rate dipped (15.6% to 7.3%), his strikeout rate spiked (13.3% to 24.5%) and his pull rate jumped by 11%. If he can recapture the patient, all-fields, flyball-oriented approach he showed at Double-A, Lowe will look the part of a big-league cleanup hitter. If not, there is some Quadruple-A hitter risk.
More Fantasy News
Three more hits in win
1BTexas Rangers
July 9, 2024
Lowe went 3-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored in Monday's 9-4 win over the Angels.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Delivers run in win
1BTexas Rangers
July 7, 2024
Lowe went 1-for-4 with an RBI in Saturday's 4-3 win over the Rays.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Homers twice in win
1BTexas Rangers
July 3, 2024
Lowe went 2-for-4 with two home runs and four RBI in Tuesday's 7-0 win over San Diego.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Productive finish to month
1BTexas Rangers
July 1, 2024
Lowe went 2-for-5 with two RBI and two runs scored in Sunday's 11-2 win over the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Lifts fourth homer
1BTexas Rangers
June 29, 2024
Lowe went 3-for-4 with a two-run home run and a double in Saturday's 6-5 loss to the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Latest Fantasy Rumors
Fruitful position
1BTexas Rangers
April 26, 2023
Across 105 plate appearances, Lowe has left 53 runners on base -- second most in MLB.
ANALYSIS
Lowe has spent all of his plate appearances hitting third for the Rangers, and there's little reason to change it up with the Rangers averaging a league-leading 6.57 runs per game. Lowe's RBI total should be on the rise in the weeks and months to come.
See All MLB Rumors