Robbie Ray

33-Year-Old PitcherSP

San Francisco Giants

Out

Injury Hamstring

Est. Return 2/1/2025

2024 Stats

W-L

3-2

ERA

4.70

WHIP

1.14

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Ray took home the AL Cy Young for his work with Toronto in 2021 and was signed to a five-year, $115 million contract by the Mariners after the season. After a solid if unspectacular 2022 campaign that saw him register a 3.71 ERA and 212:67 K;BB over 189 innings, the left-hander was only able to make one start in 2023 before suffering a flexor strain that eventually led to Tommy John surgery in May, and he's expected to miss the first half of 2024. When healthy, Ray still has some of the better swing-and-miss stuff of any left-handed pitcher in baseball, and he's seen a dramatic improvement in his ability to throw strikes over the past two seasons thanks to some mechanical changes made after joining the Blue Jays in the middle of 2020. The question now becomes how much a year-plus delay will impede the 31-year-old's command, and if he'll still have the same ability to miss bats following the operation. There's certainly reason to believe he can be a strong option following next year's All-Star break, but there's considerable risk that comes with the potential reward. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Dynasty

From Preseason

#421

ADP

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 215

DOB 10/1/1991

Born Brentwood, TN

College None

Drafted 12th Rd 2010 WSH

Doesn't opt out of deal

PSan Francisco Giants

Hamstring

November 2, 2024

Ray (hamstring) will not opt out of the final two years of his contract with the Giants, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Ray missed the first half of the 2024 campaign while recovering from the Tommy John procedure he underwent in May of 2023. Once he returned, he was able to make seven starts for the Giants before a strained left hamstring cut his season short in August. Because of his injury history, he likely wouldn't receive an offer in free agency close to the $50 million he's due to make over the next two years, so his decision to remain in San Francisco on his current deal is hardly a surprise. He'll aim to bounce back in 2025 after turning in a 4.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 30.2 innings this past season.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Robbie Ray generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Robbie Ray generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-3%

BAA vs RHP

2024

-54%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-38%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-10%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.233	178	53	9	38	7	3	6
Since 2022vs Right	.225	745	205	73	149	26	2	32
2024vs Left	.333	25	6	3	7	0	0	2
2024vs Right	.153	104	37	12	13	3	0	4
2023vs Left	.400	7	3	1	2	1	0	0
2023vs Right	.250	12	0	4	2	0	0	0
2022vs Left	.212	146	44	5	29	6	3	4
2022vs Right	.236	629	168	57	134	23	2	28
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-19%

ERA at Home

2024

-55%

ERA on Road

2023

-100%

ERA on Road

2022

-36%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.56	1.12	131.1	7	9	0	10.1	2.9	1.4
Since 2022Away	4.42	1.33	91.2	8	6	0	10.8	3.8	1.8
2024Home	6.11	1.42	17.2	1	2	0	11.2	4.6	2.0
2024Away	2.77	0.77	13.0	2	0	0	14.5	4.2	1.4
2023Home	8.10	2.70	3.1	0	1	0	8.1	13.5	0.0
2023Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022Home	3.02	1.02	110.1	6	6	0	10.0	2.4	1.3
2022Away	4.69	1.42	78.2	6	6	0	10.2	3.8	1.8
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Stat Review

How does Robbie Ray compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

2.87

K/9

12.6

BB/9

4.4

HR/9

1.8

Fastball

94.1 mph

ERA

4.70

WHIP

1.14

BABIP

.244

GB/FB

0.58

Left On Base

71.4%

Exit Velocity

81.0 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.9%

Spin Rate

2256 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

20.9%

Swinging Strike

16.9%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

Fresh off winning the AL Cy Young with Toronto in 2021, Ray joined Seattle on a five-year, $115 million deal helped his new team break a 20-year playoff drought. However, the left-hander saw his effectiveness drop across the board and finished 2022 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 212:67 K:BB over 189 innings. He surrendered four runs in three frames during the wild-card round, and he then took a loss out of the bullpen in the ALDS without recording an out. It was an unceremonious end to the campaign as he surrendered 21 earned runs in his final 31 frames between the regular season and playoffs. Still, Ray had a solid 8.0 percent walk rate, which illustrates that his improved control from 2021 wasn't a one-year fluke. Now 31 years old, he likely won't be in contention for another Cy Young Award, but he should remain a strong mid-rotation piece for the Mariners if he can continue to keep the walks down.

A large majority of the baseball world missed on Ray last season, us included. Statistically speaking, there was no case for drafting Ray heading into 2021. He had posted a double-digit walk rate in four consecutive seasons, including a 17.9 BB% during the shortened 2020 campaign, he struggled with homers and his WHIP had been north of 1.33 in all but one of his big-league seasons. However, the lefty provided a valuable reminder that these players are human beings and not static numbers on a spreadsheet. After joining the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8 million deal, Ray went to work on his mechanics, reverting to an old three-quarters arm slot he had used in the past. His adjustments bore immediate fruit in spring training and Ray's dominance continued into the regular season, culminating in an improbable AL Cy Young Award. He was more confident attacking hitters and shaved more than 10 percentage points off his walk rate. The Mariners bought high in the form of a five-year, $115 million contract. You'll have to buy high too if you want him on your fantasy roster this season.

If you came here looking for a case to draft Ray, you've come to the wrong place. Simply put, there is nothing to hang your hat on here. Ray made 12 appearances (11 starts) between Arizona and Toronto last season and went 2-5 with a 6.62 ERA. The lefty gained a tick of velocity but it did not matter; in fact, Ray's already-poor control only worsened, with his walk rate reaching a truly disastrous level at 17.9%. His struggles with the long ball only got worse as Ray served up 2.26 HR/9. He can still get his strikeouts around all the walks and homers, but it's not enough to salvage his fantasy value. The damage he's capable of doing to the ratio categories makes him a dangerous pitcher to have in your active lineup -- you could be left digging out of the hole for weeks. If you have to pick him up to stream him at some point, Godspeed. Try your best not to get to that point.

Pitch inefficiency continues to haunt Ray. His 33 starts tied for the eighth most, but 174.1 innings checked in as 44th most. While an 11.2 BB% in tandem with a 31.5 K% contributed to high pitch counts, a 1.55 HR/9 also led to him hitting the showers early. Ray fanned double-digit hitters seven times, including in his last two starts of the season. However, he also issued at least four free passes 10 times with another 10 allowing multiple homers. Of slight concern is Ray's velocity has dipped for two straight seasons. Still just 28 years old, there's a chance Ray's command and control improve, but if they do not, a further decline could lower strikeouts, his primary fantasy asset. There's no harbinger of a change. Until Ray demonstrates consistently better control and command, he is what he is -- a plus for strikeouts but a big ratio risk, best streamed in favorable matchups.

Ray's season was shortened by injury. He made only 24 starts and fell well short of earning what many fantasy owners invested in him. His 3.93 ERA was a near-perfect settlement between his inflated 4.90 ERA in 2016 and his fortunate 2.89 ERA in 2017. It could have been much better with more credence to the times-through-the-order penalty. Ray's ERA the first time through a lineup was 2.81 and 2.59 the second time through, but ballooned to 9.13 thereafter as 11 of his 19 home runs allowed came that third time through. This has long been a problem for Ray, but one he was able to keep at bay in 2017 for most of the season. Ray's 2018 was a reminder that one season in a new direction does not mean a problem is resolved. He still gets strikeouts late in the game, but his command falters, so his misses become extra-base hits more often than not. He is a three-pitch guy with two strong breaking balls, but a quicker hook would help him in 2019.

2016 Robbie Ray was not as bad as his win-loss record and ERA. Conversely, he was not as good as his 2017 win-loss record and ERA either. The book on Ray has been: he is going to get a ton of strikeouts (12.1 K/9 last season), he is going to struggle with his command (3.9 BB/9) and he'll serve up some homers (1.28 HR/9). The difference between 2016 and 2017 was in his left-on-base percentage, as he stranded 68.7 percent of runners in 2016 but jumped that rate up to 84.5 percent in 2017. That latter rate is what power relievers do and starters struggle to eclipse 80 percent in consecutive seasons. He also avoided the Times Through The Order (TTOP) penalty; after allowing 49 percent of his 2016 earned runs when he was allowed to face batters for a third time, that number fell to 26 percent this past season. Expect the three truisms to continue for the most part, although with the new humidor at Chase Field, Ray should be able to cut down on the long balls.

If fantasy baseball pitchers were measured just in terms of strikeout rate, Ray might be among the first arms taken in drafts. He finished last season with an 11.3 K/9, which ranked second in the majors. Ray struck out 10 or more batters four times. Ray often racked up the strikeouts only to surround them with mediocre overall stats. Walks have been a big part of the issue. Ray walked 3.7 hitters per nine innings last season, which is in line with his career 3.6 BB/9. Ray's propensity for issuing free passes offsets his ability to miss bats and helps explain his 1.45 career WHIP. If -- and this is a big if -- Ray could cut down on the walks, he'd likely take off and post stellar fantasy numbers. Even if he does not improve upon last season's ratios, the strikeouts alone make him a solid middle-round investment in mixed leagues, and he should be particularly appealing for owners looking to supplement a low-ratios/middling-strikeouts starter taken ahead of him in drafts.

Though his win-loss numbers didn’t show it, Ray put together a solid 2015 for the Diamondbacks. He struck out 119 batters and compiled a 3.52 ERA (3.53 FIP) across 127.2 innings, and according to his 1.7 WAR, he was second the second best pitcher on the team, trailing only closer Brad Ziegler. It was a marked improvement from 2014, when Ray posted an 8.16 ERA in nine games (six starts) for Detroit. Ray could still probably stand to improve his control - he walked 3.5 batters per nine innings in 2015, which matched his 2014 rate. While he didn’t join the rotation for good until June last year, Ray should be a staple in the D-Backs rotation at the outset of 2016. However, this is a team that has cycled through rotation arms with frequency over the past couple seasons, so if Ray struggles there will be another middling option waiting to take his place.

The Tigers were high enough on Ray to make him the key piece in the Doug Fister trade prior to the 2014 season. Unfortunately, Ray's lone season in the Tigers' organization was a rough one. The 23-year-old lefty split time between Triple-A Toledo and Detroit. In 20 appearances for the Mud Hens, Ray went 7-6 with a 4.22 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 75:44 K:BB ratio in 100.1 innings. His time in Detroit was even bumpier, but on the plus side, Ray did impress in the Arizona Fall League, allowing three earned runs and striking out 12 in 11 innings. Although it was a disappointing year, it was Ray's first taste of Triple-A and major league ball, and with a fastball that touches 93 mph, a changeup and an improving slider, there's reason for optimism heading into his first year with Arizona. Harnessing his control is the biggest obstacle Ray needs to hurdle before the start of the regular season. If Ray can nab the final spot in the Diamondbacks' rotation, he'll garner some interest in deep mixed and NL-only leagues.

Ray broke through at High-A last year and held his own as a 21-year-old after a promotion to Double-A, and the Nationals wasted no time cashing in his new-found prospect status by dealing him for Doug Fister. Ray's control remains a work in progress, and given the Tigers' recent failures to develop left-handers with similar profiles (Exhibit A: Andrew Oliver) he can hardly be considered can't-miss. However, if Ray does build on last year's success, a 2015 major league debut seems likely.

More Fantasy News

Eyeing one more start in 2024

PSan Francisco Giants

Hamstring

September 16, 2024

Ray (hamstring) threw another bullpen session Saturday and remains hopeful to return from the 15-day injured list to make one start before the end of the season, MLB.com reports.