Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber

27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cleveland Guardians
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Bieber recovered nicely from the injury-shortened 2021 season to make all of his starts and return to the 200 innings level combining the volume of 2019 and top shelf stats from his Cy Young campaign. If you removed his name from his StatCast profile page, you may not be as interested in the player as he does give up hard contact, does not throw hard and his breaking stuff isn't particularly spinny, yet he has held the league to a sub .230 batting aveage in each of the past four seasons and his strikeout rate has been at least 25% in each of those four seasons. The sum is better than the individual parts here and he is one of just eight starting pitchers with a K-BB% greater than 20% from 2019-2022. He lacks the special fastball of the rest of that octet, but you simply cannot argue with the results and just how great he is pitching with his non-fastball offerings. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#56
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $10.01 million contract with the Guardians in January of 2023.
Set for Opening Day start
PCleveland Guardians
March 24, 2023
Bieber will start Opening Day against the Mariners on Thursday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Bieber will officially be making his fourth straight Opening Day start for the Guardians. The right-hander has elevated himself to the upper echelon of starting pitchers in the league over the past few seasons, most recently producing a 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 198 strikeouts over 200 innings in 31 starts with Cleveland last year.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
93
Last 10 Games
96
Last 5 Games
94
How many pitches does Shane Bieber generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Shane Bieber generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-16%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .215 702 233 46 139 27 1 16
Since 2020vs Right .220 791 221 44 163 26 2 20
2022vs Left .221 355 100 14 74 13 0 9
2022vs Right .238 436 98 22 98 16 2 9
2021vs Left .249 205 76 21 45 11 1 6
2021vs Right .210 200 58 12 39 7 0 5
2020vs Left .153 142 57 11 20 3 0 1
2020vs Right .181 155 65 10 26 3 0 6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-17%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-18%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-17%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-31%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 3.00 1.10 144.0 10 7 0 10.9 2.3 0.9
Since 2020Away 2.50 1.02 230.0 18 6 0 11.0 2.1 0.9
2022Home 3.22 1.00 81.0 5 5 0 8.6 1.6 0.8
2022Away 2.65 1.07 119.0 8 3 0 9.2 1.7 0.8
2021Home 3.51 1.32 41.0 2 2 0 11.6 3.3 1.5
2021Away 2.91 1.13 55.2 5 2 0 13.1 2.9 0.6
2020Home 1.23 1.05 22.0 3 0 0 18.0 3.3 0.0
2020Away 1.79 0.80 55.1 5 1 0 12.7 2.1 1.1
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Stat Review
How does Shane Bieber compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
5.50
 
K/9
8.9
 
BB/9
1.6
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
91.3 mph
 
ERA
2.88
 
WHIP
1.04
 
BABIP
.296
 
GB/FB
1.74
 
Left On Base
75.5%
 
Exit Velocity
83.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.7%
 
Spin Rate
2318 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
28.9%
 
Swinging Strike
14.0%
 
Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
Bieber came into 2021 with aplomb after his Cy Young-winning season in 2020. There was some expected regression baked into his projections, but the final results were harsh given the events of the season. Bieber pitched effectively over 16 starts before a shoulder strain in mid-June essentially ended his season as he pitched just six more innings late in the campaign. His 2021 peripherals lineup up rather well with what he was doing in 2019 setting aside the highest walk rate of his career, albeit one at just 8.1%. His pitches still performed well as three of them -- the curve, slider and cutter -- had Whiff rates over 40% last season. His fastball betrayed him as both his expected batting average and slugging percentage were well below the actual numbers. He still pitches in a friendly division, so there should be no reason Bieber cannot return to ace status if the shoulder is healthy.
Bieber followed up his breakout 2019 season by winning the American League Cy Young Award in a unanimous vote. The right-hander was not an MVP finalist alongside teammate Jose Ramirez, but Bieber had a case; he ranked third in all of baseball in fWAR (behind Ramirez and Freddie Freeman) and went 8-1 in 12 starts, carrying a Cleveland rotation that was without Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac for a prolonged stretch. Bieber led the majors in K-BB rate at 34% and held opponents to a .167 average while showcasing some of the best command seen on a baseball field in recent memory. Hitters can still hit the ball hard when they manage to connect, but the connections are so few and far between that it hardly matters. The only real question is: has Bieber surpassed Jacob deGrom and/or Gerrit Cole among starters? It's close, but remember Bieber won't get to pitch all his games against Central Division teams in 2021.
In Bieber's rookie campaign, his 4.55 ERA was more than a run higher than his 3.23 xFIP and 3.45 SIERA. Once again, the ERA estimators proved prescient as Bieber posted a 3.28 ERA, perfectly supported with a 3.23 xFIP and 3.36 SIERA. Bieber's 93-mph fastball isn't overpowering, but he deploys a four-pitch mix with excellent control, changing speeds and eye levels effectively. The result is a dominating 25.5 K-BB%. Curiously, Bieber's average exit velocity allowed, and hard-hit rate are very poor, around 4th percentile. Last season's .296 BABIP wasn't affected much, but there's noteworthy concern as evidenced by a .246 xBA -- 17 points higher than his actual .229 mark. The high average exit velocity was responsible for 31 homers in 214.1 innings. Bieber will be drafted as an ace, rightfully so. Just beware there's some risk if he doesn't induce weaker contact. If he does, he's elite.
The surface numbers from Bieber's rookie season leave a lot to be desired, but he was much better than a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP would suggest. After getting the call in late May, Bieber struck out more than five batters for every one he walked (5.13 K/BB, 19.6% K-BB) while maintaining an above-average groundball rate (46.6%). A sub-70 percent strand rate and .356 BABIP skewed the ratios. In the end, all three of his FIP, xFIP and SIERA were more than a full run lower than his ERA. Bieber wasn't afraid to challenge hitters, throwing first-pitch strikes 66.4% of the time, and he used his breaking stuff later in counts to get swinging strikes. He doesn't overpower hitters with the fastball, but Bieber's pitch mix and command put him in position to be successful for a long time in the major leagues. He threw 194.1 innings between the majors and minors last year and shouldn't have any real limitations in 2019. This is a pitcher you want on your team.
More Fantasy News
On track to start Opening Day
PCleveland Guardians
March 4, 2023
Guardians manager Terry Francona told reporters that Bieber is on track to start Opening Day against the Mariners, Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Avoids arbitration
PCleveland Guardians
January 13, 2023
Bieber signed a one-year, $10.01 million contract with the Guardians on Friday, avoiding arbitration, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
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Available in emergency in Game 5
PCleveland Guardians
October 18, 2022
Bieber will be available in Cleveland's bullpen for Game 5 of the ALDS against the Yankees on Tuesday, though he's unlikely to be used, Mandy Bell of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Bumped back to Friday
PCleveland Guardians
October 13, 2022
Bieber is scheduled to start Game 2 of the Guardians' ALDS matchup with the Yankees on Friday, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Five good innings in win
PCleveland Guardians
October 2, 2022
Bieber (13-8) earned the win Sunday against Kansas City, striking out three in five innings while allowing two runs (one earned) on seven hits and a walk.
ANALYSIS
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