Tyler Mahle

Mahle struggled with injuries and a poor start to the season to finish with an ugly 4.40 ERA, but most of his underlying metrics were similar to his previous seasons. Mahle got off to a terrible start with a 6.32 ERA through his first 10 outings, but righted the ship with a 3.03 ERA and 10.2 K/9 in his next six starts. He then missed three weeks with a sore shoulder but returned to make three starts before he was traded to the Twins at the deadline. He made two starts for Minnesota before going on the injured list for shoulder inflammation. He returned in late August but didn't even make it through one start before another setback to his shoulder (rotator cuff weakness) and was shut down for the year. When healthy, Mahle had similar strikeout rates (9.4 K/9) and walk rates (3.2 B/9) to the past few seasons. ERA estimators such as xERA (3.49) and FIP (3.87) show he may have been unlucky as he did have just a 69.5% LOB. Mahle could benefit from the move to Target Field as he struggled at Great America Ballpark at times (5.63 ERA in 2021). If his shoulder problems are not an issue, he'll be a mainstay of the Minnesota rotation.

2021 was a consolidation season for Mahle, building off the gains made in 2020's shortened campaign, marred a tiny bit by a rough final start against the Pirates. Mahle set a career-high in wins (13), innings (180) and strikeouts (210) while making all 33 starts. While Mahle's K% dropped from 29.6% to 27.7%, he compensated for that by walking fewer (10.1% to 8.7%) and inducing more ground balls (up to 42.2% from 30.9%). Mahle has one big red flag - his home park. He had a 5.63 ERA and hitters posted a .270/.344/.511 line with 19 homers in Great American Ballpark. As we've seen with Rockies pitchers, it's really difficult to manage pitching when you can't use a pitcher's home starts. He didn't have that extreme split in 2020, so there's some hope that it will not persist. Despite the workload increase, Mahle's velocity remained constant at 94.1 mph on average - with that and his ERA estimators in mind, a reprise seems likely.

Mahle entered 2020 without a rotation slot, but finished with a breakout season and a guaranteed starting job going into 2021. Injuries first to Anthony DeSclafani and then Wade Miley created the opportunities for Mahle, who turned his strikeout upside into a next-level performance, increasing his K% to 29.6 with a swinging strike rate of 14.7%. Mahle junked his cutter, a pitch that opponents slugged to the tune of .625 in 2019, adding more sliders and splitters instead. Both were plus pitches, and the batting average estimators like xBA support his overall .240 BABIP as a result. Of some concern is that his BB% climbed back up to 10.4%, and that he built his breakout season on the cushion of the Central Division schedule. Be aware that if you want to capitalize on his breakout season, you're not alone - his ADP was around 175 in the NFBC and climbing as of mid-January.

Pitching coach Derek Johnson helped several Reds turn a corner in his first year with the team and Mahle did take steps forward, but those improvements were not reflected in his W-L record or ERA. Mahle overhauled his pitch repertoire, bagging his slider in favor of a curveball while introducing a split-finger pitch for the first time. The curve was middling but the split finger had a positive run value when it was all said and done, and it helped Mahle add more than eight percentage points to his groundball rate. He showed improved control, shaving his walk rate from 10.5% to 6.1%, and the emerging stats that attempt to judge intent give him good marks for command. It's important to note that Mahle tried to hide an injury in 2018 and his numbers suffered greatly for it. Still just 25, Mahle is an interesting flier with upside, though he's on the outside looking in for a rotation spot entering spring training.

For a seven-game stretch last summer, Mahle was the Reds' best starter, compiling a 2.04 ERA over 39.2 innings while striking out 41 batters in the process. Unfortunately, baseball doesn't limit itself to seven-game stretches, and using selective endpoints doesn't even do Mahle that many favors -- he walked 19 batters and had a 1.36 WHIP over that span, but managed to avoid homer-fueled big innings. After that stretch ended on July 6, he made only five more big-league appearances and was shelled in each one of them, earning a trip to the minors after the fourth. He returned for one more bad outing in September before getting shut down with a sore shoulder. Mahle's hard-hit (40.3%) and barrel rates (9.1%) skyrocketed, leading to 22 homers allowed in only 112 innings. The culprits were his secondary pitches; opponents slugged .557 against his slider and .604 on his changeup. He's yet another young pitcher that could fall short for the Reds.

Upside should be the first, second and third thing fantasy owners look for in a pitching prospect, but in 15-team leagues, there is still a place for an innings eater who can locate his pitches without submarining a team's ratios. Enter Mahle, who already boasts plus command of four pitches. The 6-foot-3 righty's fastball isn't quite a plus offering based on velocity, as it sits at 93-94 mph, but the pitch plays up thanks to Mahle's pinpoint command. His slider is a quality second pitch, but his changeup and curveball lag behind as change-of-pace offerings. Mahle likely isn't ready to be much of a positive contributor in his rookie season, but he could be a Zach Davies or Mike Leake type of SP5 or SP6 down the road. He will be given a chance to compete for a rotation spot this spring, but will likely head back to Triple-A and wait for injury or poor performance to open up a spot in the big leagues.

Mahle got off to a scintillating start to the 2016 campaign at High-A Daytona. He features three pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup), and while none of them are superior on their own, his stuff played up due to his superb control and pitchability. A bump to Double-A Pensacola saw the 22-year-old righty come back down to earth a bit, though, as he struggled in 14 starts - chiefly because of the home run, surrendering 12 in 71.1 innings. Mahle works best when keeping the ball down in the zone, something he was able to do at the lower levels. He likely will return to Double-A to begin the 2017 season. Though he does not have true ace potential, his size, command and durability give him the ceiling of a No. 3 starter who can eat innings at the big league level.

A seventh-round pick in 2013 out of high school, Mahle has emerged as an extreme strike-thrower in the Reds organization. In 152 innings at Low-A Dayton, Mahle walked just 25 batters while striking out 135. He's added a couple ticks to his fastball and works around 92-93 mph. Scouting reports suggest that he still needs to improve his secondary offerings. The jump up to High-A will be an important level for Mahle to master.