Tyler Mahle

28-Year-Old PitcherSP

Minnesota Twins

60-Day IL

Injury Elbow

Est. Return 8/1/2024

2023 Stats

W-L

1-2

ERA

3.16

WHIP

1.05

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

Unlock Our Projections

2023 Fantasy Outlook

Mahle struggled with injuries and a poor start to the season to finish with an ugly 4.40 ERA, but most of his underlying metrics were similar to his previous seasons. Mahle got off to a terrible start with a 6.32 ERA through his first 10 outings, but righted the ship with a 3.03 ERA and 10.2 K/9 in his next six starts. He then missed three weeks with a sore shoulder but returned to make three starts before he was traded to the Twins at the deadline. He made two starts for Minnesota before going on the injured list for shoulder inflammation. He returned in late August but didn't even make it through one start before another setback to his shoulder (rotator cuff weakness) and was shut down for the year. When healthy, Mahle had similar strikeout rates (9.4 K/9) and walk rates (3.2 B/9) to the past few seasons. ERA estimators such as xERA (3.49) and FIP (3.87) show he may have been unlucky as he did have just a 69.5% LOB. Mahle could benefit from the move to Target Field as he struggled at Great America Ballpark at times (5.63 ERA in 2021). If his shoulder problems are not an issue, he'll be a mainstay of the Minnesota rotation. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#254

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 6'3"

Weight 210

DOB 9/29/1994

Born Newport Beach, CA

College None

Drafted 7th Rd 2013 CIN

Set for surgery Monday

PMinnesota Twins

Elbow

May 20, 2023

Mahle (elbow) will undergo Tommy John surgery Monday, Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.

ANALYSIS
Mahle will undergo the reconstructive surgery and miss not just the rest of the 2023 season, but a large portion of the 2024 season. Once healthy, the right-hander should be a rotation option again for the Twins, and the success rate of hurlers who come back from Tommy John surgery does suggest there's still a good chance for long-term success for Mahle.

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Pitching Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Tyler Mahle generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Tyler Mahle generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-30%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-56%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-28%

BAA vs LHP

2021

-27%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2021vs Left	.191	667	193	62	114	23	4	13
Since 2021vs Right	.271	697	171	50	170	33	2	32
2023vs Left	.128	40	11	1	5	1	0	2
2023vs Right	.293	62	17	4	17	3	0	3
2022vs Left	.192	255	67	27	43	9	3	5
2022vs Right	.268	248	59	16	61	12	0	11
2021vs Left	.198	372	115	34	66	13	1	6
2021vs Right	.270	387	95	30	92	18	2	18
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-43%

ERA on Road

2023

-13%

ERA on Road

2022

-16%

ERA on Road

2021

-59%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2021Home	5.00	1.36	167.1	7	10	0	10.2	3.4	1.8
Since 2021Away	2.83	1.06	159.0	13	6	0	9.9	2.8	0.6
2023Home	3.31	0.86	16.1	0	1	0	8.8	0.6	1.7
2023Away	2.89	1.39	9.1	1	1	0	11.6	3.9	1.9
2022Home	4.71	1.35	72.2	2	5	0	9.3	3.7	1.5
2022Away	3.94	1.02	48.0	4	3	0	9.6	2.4	0.8
2021Home	5.63	1.48	78.1	5	4	0	11.3	3.7	2.2
2021Away	2.30	1.04	101.2	8	2	0	9.9	2.8	0.4
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Tyler Mahle compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

5.60

K/9

9.8

BB/9

1.8

HR/9

1.8

Fastball

92.7 mph

ERA

3.16

WHIP

1.05

BABIP

.277

GB/FB

1.00

Left On Base

80.0%

Exit Velocity

80.9 mph

Barrels/BBE

5.9%

Spin Rate

2287 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

23.0%

Swinging Strike

10.9%

Prospect Rankings History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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32 days ago

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2021 was a consolidation season for Mahle, building off the gains made in 2020's shortened campaign, marred a tiny bit by a rough final start against the Pirates. Mahle set a career-high in wins (13), innings (180) and strikeouts (210) while making all 33 starts. While Mahle's K% dropped from 29.6% to 27.7%, he compensated for that by walking fewer (10.1% to 8.7%) and inducing more ground balls (up to 42.2% from 30.9%). Mahle has one big red flag - his home park. He had a 5.63 ERA and hitters posted a .270/.344/.511 line with 19 homers in Great American Ballpark. As we've seen with Rockies pitchers, it's really difficult to manage pitching when you can't use a pitcher's home starts. He didn't have that extreme split in 2020, so there's some hope that it will not persist. Despite the workload increase, Mahle's velocity remained constant at 94.1 mph on average - with that and his ERA estimators in mind, a reprise seems likely.

Mahle entered 2020 without a rotation slot, but finished with a breakout season and a guaranteed starting job going into 2021. Injuries first to Anthony DeSclafani and then Wade Miley created the opportunities for Mahle, who turned his strikeout upside into a next-level performance, increasing his K% to 29.6 with a swinging strike rate of 14.7%. Mahle junked his cutter, a pitch that opponents slugged to the tune of .625 in 2019, adding more sliders and splitters instead. Both were plus pitches, and the batting average estimators like xBA support his overall .240 BABIP as a result. Of some concern is that his BB% climbed back up to 10.4%, and that he built his breakout season on the cushion of the Central Division schedule. Be aware that if you want to capitalize on his breakout season, you're not alone - his ADP was around 175 in the NFBC and climbing as of mid-January.

Pitching coach Derek Johnson helped several Reds turn a corner in his first year with the team and Mahle did take steps forward, but those improvements were not reflected in his W-L record or ERA. Mahle overhauled his pitch repertoire, bagging his slider in favor of a curveball while introducing a split-finger pitch for the first time. The curve was middling but the split finger had a positive run value when it was all said and done, and it helped Mahle add more than eight percentage points to his groundball rate. He showed improved control, shaving his walk rate from 10.5% to 6.1%, and the emerging stats that attempt to judge intent give him good marks for command. It's important to note that Mahle tried to hide an injury in 2018 and his numbers suffered greatly for it. Still just 25, Mahle is an interesting flier with upside, though he's on the outside looking in for a rotation spot entering spring training.

For a seven-game stretch last summer, Mahle was the Reds' best starter, compiling a 2.04 ERA over 39.2 innings while striking out 41 batters in the process. Unfortunately, baseball doesn't limit itself to seven-game stretches, and using selective endpoints doesn't even do Mahle that many favors -- he walked 19 batters and had a 1.36 WHIP over that span, but managed to avoid homer-fueled big innings. After that stretch ended on July 6, he made only five more big-league appearances and was shelled in each one of them, earning a trip to the minors after the fourth. He returned for one more bad outing in September before getting shut down with a sore shoulder. Mahle's hard-hit (40.3%) and barrel rates (9.1%) skyrocketed, leading to 22 homers allowed in only 112 innings. The culprits were his secondary pitches; opponents slugged .557 against his slider and .604 on his changeup. He's yet another young pitcher that could fall short for the Reds.

Upside should be the first, second and third thing fantasy owners look for in a pitching prospect, but in 15-team leagues, there is still a place for an innings eater who can locate his pitches without submarining a team's ratios. Enter Mahle, who already boasts plus command of four pitches. The 6-foot-3 righty's fastball isn't quite a plus offering based on velocity, as it sits at 93-94 mph, but the pitch plays up thanks to Mahle's pinpoint command. His slider is a quality second pitch, but his changeup and curveball lag behind as change-of-pace offerings. Mahle likely isn't ready to be much of a positive contributor in his rookie season, but he could be a Zach Davies or Mike Leake type of SP5 or SP6 down the road. He will be given a chance to compete for a rotation spot this spring, but will likely head back to Triple-A and wait for injury or poor performance to open up a spot in the big leagues.

Mahle got off to a scintillating start to the 2016 campaign at High-A Daytona. He features three pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup), and while none of them are superior on their own, his stuff played up due to his superb control and pitchability. A bump to Double-A Pensacola saw the 22-year-old righty come back down to earth a bit, though, as he struggled in 14 starts - chiefly because of the home run, surrendering 12 in 71.1 innings. Mahle works best when keeping the ball down in the zone, something he was able to do at the lower levels. He likely will return to Double-A to begin the 2017 season. Though he does not have true ace potential, his size, command and durability give him the ceiling of a No. 3 starter who can eat innings at the big league level.

A seventh-round pick in 2013 out of high school, Mahle has emerged as an extreme strike-thrower in the Reds organization. In 152 innings at Low-A Dayton, Mahle walked just 25 batters while striking out 135. He's added a couple ticks to his fastball and works around 92-93 mph. Scouting reports suggest that he still needs to improve his secondary offerings. The jump up to High-A will be an important level for Mahle to master.

More Fantasy News

Set for Tommy John surgery

PMinnesota Twins

Elbow

May 11, 2023

Mahle (elbow) will undergo Tommy John surgery and will miss the rest of the 2023 season, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.

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Shifted to 60-day IL

PMinnesota Twins

Elbow

May 5, 2023

Mahle (elbow) was moved to the 60-day injured list Friday, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.

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Officially placed on injured list

PMinnesota Twins

Elbow

May 3, 2023

Minnesota placed Mahle (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.

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Shut down at least four weeks

PMinnesota Twins

Elbow

April 30, 2023

Manager Rocco Baldelli said Sunday that Mahle will be shut down at least four weeks after being diagnosed with a posterior impingement and flexor pronator strain, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.

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Missing at least one start

PMinnesota Twins

Elbow

April 30, 2023

Mahle's (elbow) MRI and X-ray results will be reviewed with the team doctor Sunday, but manager Rocco Baldelli expects the right-hander to miss at least one turn through the rotation, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
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