Xander Bogaerts

Xander Bogaerts

30-Year-Old ShortstopSS
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Bogaerts has been consistently productive without an impressive Statcast page. Last season, he again parlayed outstanding plate coverage into a solid campaign, posting a 134 wRC+, the second highest of his career. Bogaerts homers usually emanate from turning on mistakes, but he was unable to do it as often, perhaps due to lingering shoulder and other assorted woes. The drop in power was mitigated by a .362 BABIP, above his career .336 mark. However, it was driven by a .356 BABIP on grounders, over 50 points above his career norm. Defense has always been an issue, but last season Bogaerts vowed to improve, and he did, finishing third for the AL Gold Glove at shortstop. Bogaerts opted out of his contract to enter free agency. His skills will play anywhere, though his power could benefit from a homer-friendly park. Nagging issues have been an issue, but Bogaerts is still one of the best fantasy shortstops. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a four-year, $72 million contract extension with the Red Sox in March of 2019. Declined $20 million player option for 2023 in November of 2022.
Opting out of deal
SSFree Agent  
November 7, 2022
Bogaerts declined his $20 million player option for 2023 on Monday, opting out of the final three years of his contract with the Red Sox to become a free agent, Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe reports.
ANALYSIS
As expected, Bogaerts will hit the open market this offseason, leaving approximately $60 million on the table as he pursues what will surely be a more lucrative long-term deal in free agency. The shortstop is coming off of another impressive campaign in 2022, having posted a .307 average with 15 home runs, 73 RBI, 84 runs and eight stolen bases over 150 games. One of the best shortstops in the league, Bogaerts will certainly have an active market for his services this offseason.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
62
51
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
12
19
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+13%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+34%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+8%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+32%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .925 427 69 15 59 3 .332 .415 .511
Since 2020vs Right .816 1029 140 33 120 18 .287 .354 .462
2022vs Left 1.038 145 23 4 21 1 .382 .469 .569
2022vs Right .774 486 61 11 52 7 .286 .350 .424
2021vs Left .818 213 34 7 30 0 .284 .376 .443
2021vs Right .887 390 56 16 49 5 .301 .367 .520
2020vs Left 1.014 69 12 4 8 2 .375 .420 .594
2020vs Right .767 153 23 6 19 6 .257 .333 .434
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+11%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+14%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+18%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+12%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .892 724 109 30 117 8 .310 .377 .515
Since 2020Away .804 732 100 18 62 13 .291 .366 .437
2022Home .886 322 43 10 48 2 .317 .382 .504
2022Away .779 309 41 5 25 6 .297 .372 .407
2021Home .937 287 48 15 52 1 .316 .383 .553
2021Away .796 316 42 8 27 4 .275 .358 .438
2020Home .799 115 18 5 17 5 .275 .348 .451
2020Away .894 107 17 5 10 3 .316 .374 .520
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Stat Review
How does Xander Bogaerts compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.48
 
BB Rate
9.0%
 
K Rate
18.7%
 
BABIP
.362
 
ISO
.149
 
AVG
.307
 
OBP
.377
 
SLG
.456
 
OPS
.833
 
wOBA
.366
 
Exit Velocity
88.1 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
30.5%
 
Barrels/PA
4.6%
 
Expected BA
.259
 
Expected SLG
.383
 
Sprint Speed
21.8 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
46.4%
 
Line Drive %
21.7%
 
Fly Ball %
31.8%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Bogaerts had one of his customary productive seasons, which we almost take for granted given his level of production over the years. The fact he was able to do what he did while playing through a sore wrist through most of the second half speaks to his natural abilities. Bogaerts hit .321/.385/.545 before the break but just .255/.341/.413 after the break while dealing with the injury and finally going on the injured list in early September. He continues to enjoy the comforts of Fenway Park as his home OPS was nearly 150 points higher than his road OPS in 2021. Bogaerts is an .870 OPS hitter at Fenway versus a .755 OPS hitter on the road over the course of his career. He is one of just three players (along with Freddie Freeman and Michael Brantley) to hit at least .285 in each of the past four major-league seasons, and a healthy body and retooled Boston lineup could return him to 200 or more runs-plus-RBI.
The trickle-down effect of losing your team's best player via trade and seeing one of your best hitters go into the tank had its effects in Boston, but not so much on Bogaerts. On the surface, the shortstop had another fine year, coming close to his 2019 slash line and even stealing more bases in the shortened season than he did in the entirety of 2019. Still, the trickle-down effect came in run production. If we extrapolate his stats over a full season, the runs total comes close to 2019, but the RBI are where the decline in his supporting cast really show up, as he didn't have the same traffic on the bases. That issue was exacerbated by the fact Bogaerts hit .204 with runners in scoring position, which was easily his worst effort since the 2014 season. His expected stats say things could have been worse overall as his xBA and xSLG outpaced his actuals by 40-plus points. Don't reach.
Bogaerts had a .309 BA and 141 wRC+, both of which ranked 14th among qualified hitters, and finished seventh in baseball with 227 runs-plus-RBI, more than Pete Alonso, Nolan Arenado and Juan Soto. Those kinds of numbers and categorical rankings imply an ascension to full-on superstardom, but you can poke holes into some parts of his age-27 campaign. His barrel rate dipped a bit from 2018, as did his xwOBA on contact. His xBA was .276 -- making him one of the 10 "luckiest" regulars in baseball (min. 450 PA) -- while his xSLG was a whopping 90 points below his actual SLG. He stole only four bases in six attempts after averaging 13.75 attempts per season from 2015-18. Mookie Betts is gone after being traded in February, and that will in theory take away some of the counting-stat production for Bogaerts. There's a ton to like here, but paying full price for last season's stats seems ill advised.
Bogaerts benefited from improved health in 2018, though he ended up playing the fewest games in any of his full seasons in the majors. The ankle injury that shelved him for most of April didn’t inhibit him at the plate once he returned, unlike the hand issue that sapped his power in the second half of 2017. While Bogaerts may have scaled back his aggressiveness on the bases, he made up for it by setting new personal bests in home runs and RBI, with the increased slugging output supported by major rises in both his barrel (7.1%) and hard-hit (41.5%) rates. The improved batted-ball profile should provide further reason to invest in Bogaerts with confidence as he enters his age-26 campaign. Even if last year's power gains are more of an outlier, Bogaerts will retain a high floor thanks to his strong contact skills and his slotting in a Boston lineup that brings back most of the core pieces from an offense that led MLB in runs in 2018.
Bogaerts' batted-ball profile raised concerns heading into the 2017 season, and those concerns proved to be justified as he produced at a below-league-average level at the plate (96 wRC+) in his age-25 season. Granted, Bogaerts was playing through a hand injury for most of the second half and may have altered his swing mechanics. He continued to put the ball on the ground at a high rate -- roughly half the time -- and his flyball rate fell to just over 30 percent, leading to a precipitous drop in power from his career-high mark of 21 homers in 2016. He walks at a good clip and doesn't strike out much, and there is value in a 10-15 player at shortstop in any format, but right now Bogaerts is more of a second- or third-tier option at the position rather than the fantasy building block many thought he'd be already at this stage of his career.
The progression of Bogaerts took another step forward in 2016. In 2015, he earned a Silver Slugger award in the American League, but he'd hit just seven homers and had an unsustainable BABIP (.372). The expected power hadn't yet developed and we were curious to see what his numbers would look like when BABIP corrected, which it did in 2016 (.335). The results were encouraging. The 24-year-old's power bat arrived, belting 21 homers with a .152 ISO and he bumped his walk rate to 8.1 percent. Slashing a respectable .294/.356/.446, Bogaerts was a first-time All-Star and earned a second Silver Slugger award. The advanced metrics indicate more runs created and better plate discipline, but it wasn't all good in 2016. There was a continuous fall from his season high .529 slugging and .934 OPS on June 11, to .392/.717 from that point on. Bogaerts is getting closer to a breakout year, which will come when he eliminates the prolonged slumps.
Ever since Bogaerts made his debut in 2013, the baseball world has been waiting for a breakout star to emerge. It didn’t happen in 2014 — he struggled for much of the season, and was moved between shortstop and third base as questions about his defense arose. But a strong finish in September suggested his full potential could be realized in 2015. As it turned out, Bogaerts only tapped into his potential last season, hitting .320/.355/.421 in 156 games while going from a -2.7 UZR in 2014 to 1.0 in 2015 in a full season at shortstop, suggesting he can stick at the position for the foreseeable future. Some of his hitting success was due to an elevated BABIP (.372, sixth in MLB), but even with a little regression cooked in he projects to hit for a high average again this season. The big question is what his power ceiling is, and when he will be ready to reach it. He certainly won’t come cheap for owners who gamble on the power surge coming in 2016.
Bogaerts entered the 2014 season with high expectations coming off his preternatural contributions to Boston's championship team in 2013. The organization's top prospect opened the season as the team's starting shortstop, but questions about his defense emerged early. Despite that, he was one of the few players hitting in a sorry lineup through April and May. With the Red Sox needing any kind of a spark, they signed Stephen Drew and forced Bogaerts to shift to third base. This chain of events was followed by a summer stretch in which Bogaerts' offense went idle. He hit just .161 from June through August and struck out in 26.5% of his plate appearances, compared to 20.5% the rest of the season. The position change was cited by some as the trigger for the drop-off, but it was more likely a result of pitchers catching up to him and feeding him a steady diet of sliders. He eventually made adjustments and had a strong September, but is still unclear what happened to his ability to work the count -- his walk rate dropped from 11.2% in April/May to 3.8% his plate appearances after June. The plan calls for Bogaerts to start at shortstop in 2015 and he should stay there all season with free-agent addition Pablo Sandoval manning the hot corner.
Bogaerts played at three levels of the organization in 2013, including the final few months in Boston, where he earned regular playing time in the playoffs and World Series. He's the unquestioned top prospect in the organization and will have a full-time role when the upcoming campaign opens. Up until last season, Bogaerts was exclusively a shortstop, but the Red Sox had him train at third base next to Stephen Drew. It's presumed that he'll be the everyday shortstop with Drew out of the picture this year, though the Red Sox are interested in adding an infielder to the left side. His growth as a hitter in 2013 was displayed by increased patience and a knack for making in-game adjustments at the plate. The one knock on Bogaerts as a hitter was his aggressiveness, but he incorporated patience as part of his hitting plan last season, boosting his walk rate from 0.34 per game in 2012 to last year's 0.53. As we saw in the postseason, he drew some big walks in Boston's World Series run.
Bogaerts moves to the head of the organization's prospect class after a two-level year, in which he bashed 20 homers and hit .307/.373/.523 at High-A Salem and Double-A Portland. The adjustments in approach he put into practice at Low-A helped prepare him for Double-A, where he did not experience the typical struggles of a young hitter facing advanced-level pitching. He is on the fast track to Boston and will work at the major league camp during spring training. The one thing that may alter his trajectory is a position shift. Bogaerts is currently a shortstop, but he is young and his body is still developing. A position switch is not out of the question, especially if Bogaerts' power stroke continues to develop. It is not hard to envision a start at Double-A; a mid-year promotion to Triple-A; followed by a September callup.
Bogaerts made a significant splash into professional baseball in 2011, bypassing short-season ball and getting a mid-season placement at Low-A Greenville, where he hit 16 homers in 265 at-bats. The power stroke is there; he just needs to learn how to better manage his plate appearances. He's playing shortstop, and at just 19, the organization will leave him where he is for now, but his body projects to add more mass and he could find a position switch somewhere down the line. Look for him to continue to develop a plate approach at Greenville with a promotion to High-A Salem likely. He's a good name to stash away on your prospect charts.
Bogaerts, 18, was signed as an international free agent in 2009 and played in the Dominican Summer League in 2010. He's a shortstop now, but projects to add more muscle and may find himself moving to third base. He's very raw in terms of pitch recognition and plate discipline, but the Red Sox like his swing mechanics. He'll likely stay behind in extended spring training before getting a peek at Short-Season Lowell in June.
More Fantasy News
Grand slam in win
SSBoston Red Sox  
October 4, 2022
Bogaerts went 1-for-3 with a grand slam in Tuesday's victory over Tampa Bay.
ANALYSIS
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Back in action Tuesday
SSBoston Red Sox  
October 4, 2022
Bogaerts (back) is starting at shortstop and hitting third Tuesday against the Rays.
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Should return Tuesday
SSBoston Red Sox  
Back
October 3, 2022
Bogaerts (back) is expected to play Tuesday against the Rays, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
ANALYSIS
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Managing back issue
SSBoston Red Sox  
Back
October 3, 2022
Bogaerts isn't in Monday's lineup against the Rays due to back tightness, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Remains out of lineup
SSBoston Red Sox  
October 3, 2022
Bogaerts isn't starting Monday against the Rays, Christopher Smith of The Springfield Republican reports.
ANALYSIS
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