This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
De'Andre Hunter took care of business Wednesday and Jerami Grant went ballistic in probably the biggest prop-bet related layup I've seen on DraftKings to date, but Joel Embiid's massive fourth quarter against Washington took a little bit of shine off an otherwise awesome day. Friday's slate is a bit tricky with a couple of injuries possibly complicating matters and a number of games that could reach blowout status before a few players have the chance to hit their overs.
Points Props
I think there's far more points prop bets that I like compared to anything in rebounds, assists or the combined totals, so assume any point overs I mention could just as easily be combined into PRA bets for better value if you feel bold.
First though, I think Daniel Theis really should be primed to score more than 10.5 points (-110) against the Wizards. We just saw Embiid eviscerate Washington on Wednesday and with Tristan Thompson, Robert Williams and Grant Williams all out due to the seven-day quarantine period, I have to imagine Theis' minutes will be substantial.
Donte DiVincenzo has cooled off after a hot start to the season, but the 3-point shooting should be back on display against the Jazz, meaning the over at 9.5 points (-121) is an intriguing figure. That should be a relatively easy bar to clear, but I think the better bet would be to take his over at 1.5 made threes (-110) instead. It's always risky business when assuming a player will make threes against a NBA defense, but the Jazz do allow the highest percentage of made threes to opposing shooting guards (45.1 percent) in the league as a result of their aggressive defense near the paint and I think DiVincenzo will see enough minutes in a competitive game to have opportunities.
I'm pretty enamored with the over on both Nikola Vucevic's assist totals (over 3.5 set at -143) and points (over 21.5 set at +105). The Raptors are miserable at stopping opposing power forwards, allowing the third-most points to the position at 25.8 points-per-game, but with Aaron Gordon (hamstring) out, Vucevic is seeing a near 30-percent usage rate which should come mostly in the paint.
After burning me in my first write up, I'm ready to be hurt again, but this time I'm taking Devonte' Graham under 14.5 points (-139) against the Pelicans. New Orleans allows just 19.4 points per game to opposing point guards, tied for second-best in the league, and Graham has also been ceding time to LaMelo Ball...who just so happens to be playing his brother for the first time at the professional level.
Finally, I feel pretty confident Anthony Davis will hit the over on his point total of 24.5 (-110) so long as the Bulls can keep the game relatively competitive against the Lakers. That's probably a tall task since Vegas rightfully has the defending champs favored by 9.5 points, the largest margin on Friday's slate, but I'd contend that the Lakers will need AD in order to hit that mark anyway. The Bulls allow the most points to power forwards per game (28.2) and it's only gotten worse with Lauri Markkanen out (COVID-19 isolation). I don't really think DraftKings is baking in the scoring possibilities with Davis' PRA (37.5), but with the odds the same, I think the points have a better shot of happening as opposed to the cumulative total.
Assists/Rebounds Props
This is more just because I like the odds, but taking the over on John Wall's PRA (34.5, +121) seems like something closer to 50/50. DraftKings seems to think James Harden is going to have a monster game just going off his point total (o/u 29.5), but the Magic allow top-10 figures to opposing point guards in points, rebounds and assists. Wall has attempted at least 20 field goals in three of his four games this season and it's not as if that total is boosted by a fast-pace Rockets offense either. It's not quite as enticing as Jerami Grant's figure from Wednesday, but the odds are too good for me to not at least bet something on the PRA total.
There's also room to take advantage of a couple of rebound prop bets on the side of the Clippers. This is probably more for parlay purposes, but taking the over on Paul George's rebounding total (5.5, over at -152) is a preposterous slam dunk. The All-Star has hit that figure in four of the last five games and also faces a Warriors squad that allows the most rebounds to shooting guards per game across the entire NBA (8.2).
Conversely, I think you can take the under on Kawhi Leonard's rebounding totals (7.5, -110) without much concern. The Warriors allow the second-most rebounds to small forward (9.9 per game), but Leonard hasn't been a major part of controlling the glass, averaging what would be his lowest rebounding totals since his rookie year save for his final season with the Spurs where he played just nine games. Perhaps George and Leonard's rebounding totals correlate to the point where you could put some sort of same-game parlay down most nights, but at least relative to the odds listed Friday, I think both are comfortable bets.
Friday Locks
- Daniel Theis over 10.5 points (-110)
- Nikola Vucevic over 21.5 points (+105)
- Nikola Vucevic over 3.5 assists (-143)
- Paul George over 5.5 rebounds (-152)
- Kawhi Leonard under 7.5 rebounds (-110)
