This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
It might be difficult to imagine, but there's more going on in the NBA than just the massive James Harden trade. Thursday's slate hopefully will see five games, but DraftKings is playing coy as of this writing removing the majority of the PHI/MIA (likely due to roster concerns regarding COVID-19) and HOU/SA (stemming from Harden fallout) prop bets, so I'll try to get a couple of bets from each of the remaining games although my confidence might be lukewarm on some. Last go-around was a massive stroke of bad luck as Anthony Davis was ruled out shortly before the start of the contest and three of the best bets missed by a half-point in their respective category. Hopefully, fortune will be on our side this go around.
Points Props
There's really only one points prop bet that I like Thursday and it features taking over 22.5 points for Malcolm Brogdon (-110). If you wanted to expand to the over on his points/rebounds/assists (PRA) (34.5, -121) I think it's totally an acceptable move as well, but just from an odds perspective, you'll get more bang for your buck targeting the points. With Victor Oladipo and T.J. Warren out, the Pacers funnel their offense primarily through Domantas Sabonis and Brogdon, which shouldn't really surprise even the most casual of NBA fans. That's an important factor when considering one of those players will be working against a human sieve such as Damian Lillard. No Caris LeVert means Aaron Holiday and Justin Holiday should see more playing time possibly opening up more spot-up threes, but even then Trail Blazers tend to defend wings fairly well, allowing middle-of-the-pack numbers when it comes to points scored, attempted threes, and 3-point percentage. DraftKings certainly has priced in the Damian Lillard effect when it comes to Brogdon's over so in that regard the PRA is safer, but on a slate that is both murky and have almost zero standout betting options, I'm comfortable betting on Brogdon to cross the 22-point threshold for the fifth time this season.
I don't really want to bet against Jamal Murray scoring under 21.5 points (-121); after all, we saw in the playoffs last year the 23-year-old guard can be one of the most explosive players in the league if he's feeling it. However, I do think the under when it comes to his 29.5 PRA figure (-110) is intriguing, if only because the Nuggets offense has gone almost entirely through star center Nikola Jokic this season, causing career-low numbers for Murray in terms of assists (3.8 average through 10 games). There's a bit working against this bet, however. The Warriors aren't great defending opposing point guards (allowing 23.7 points per game), but they also have been middle of the pack in terms of production given up to opposing centers. Now, they haven't faced the Joker at all this year so it might be a moot point, but we're betting against what's going to happen using data that's already occurred, so there will always be some errors when you face unknowns. Couple in the fact Gary Harris might also be unavailable, adding more usage onto Murray, and it certainly seems a bit dissuading. For the record, I like the PRA under more than I do Brogdon's over for points, but both stick out among a sea of uncertainty.
Moving over to my favorite bet of the night, I'm taking the over when it comes to OG Anunoby's 19.5 PRA (+100). The Hornets allow the most 3-point attempts to small forwards in the league by a considerable margin which is great for the Indiana product considering he's seeing a massive boost in attempted 3-pointers this season. Anunoby is still a critical defensive player which should afford him plenty of minutes Thursday and there's enough rebounds/assists production built in to the fourth-year forward's averages that I'm comfortable taking plus money as opposed to just the points (11.5, -110).
Assists/Rebounds Props
I wish there was more from an assists/rebounds perspective, but the best bet I could find was taking the over on Pascal Siakam's rebounding numbers (8.5, +105). The Hornets allow the third-most rebounds to power forwards and Siakam has hit the over in each of the last four games. There's not much leeway -- Siakam has gotten exactly nine in two of those games -- but I think it's going to be a fairly competitive game that should afford the All-Star plenty of opportunities to pile the numbers up. I'm somewhat interested in his total PRA (33.5, -121) in the same vein, but a better payout hinges on the rebounds.
Parlay Possibility
Since you can't same-game parlay on DraftKings, I thought I'd just piece together some of the favorite options for Thursday's admittedly small slate.
Sabonis records double-double (-400)
Raptors moneyline (-375)
76ers moneyline (-590)
Nuggets moneyline (-195)
(total parlay odds) +182
The Heat are missing a number of players due to COVID-19 health and safety protocols and the Nuggets/Raptors should be pretty easy locks over their respective opponents. I think Sabonis should easily hit a double-double, but that's the only one I'm really worried about out of this group.
Thursday Locks
- OG Anunoby over 19.5 points/rebounds/assists (+100)
- Jamal Murray under 29.5 points/rebounds/assists (-110)
- Domantas Sabonis double-double, 76ers/Raptors/Nuggets win (+182)
