This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We have a massive slate of games Wednesday with 22 teams taking to the court. While our first foray in the scene towards the start of the holidays could have went better, there's now plenty of data available for which we can take advantage of when looking at prop bets. I'll outline some category-specific bets to target and then just toss out a couple of my overarching favorites which you can mix and match for parlay purposes.
Points Props
There's two specific points prop bets that I think are worth considering, although a number of my PRA ones (points/rebounda/assists combined) could also be individually grabbed if you're fine with worse odds. I'm a little hesitant when it comes to assuming the Cavaliers defense is "better", but they are allowing the third-fewest points per game in part because of their dramatically slower pace compared to last year. Part of that defensive philosophy has come by targeting the point guard position, meaning taking the under on Markelle Fultz's 14.5 points (-110) feels like an intriguing option. The former Sixer got off to a fast start in the beginning of the season, but he hasn't crossed 12 points in any of the last four games and he's been attempting a few less field goals to boot.
I don't think there's a greater lock, however, than taking the over on De'Andre Hunter's 13.5 point total (-110). For whatever the reason DraftKings has been slow to adjust to Hunter's figures over the last two years, and I think this is another case where we're getting it at a lower threshold than normal. The Hornets allow the fourth-most points to small forwards this season (25.4) which should be reason enough to target the second-year forward, but Hunter has also been more of a scoring threat this season, converting on just over 53 percent of his attempts this season. There's definitely means for regression on the horizon when it comes to that percentage, but I think even if that rears its ugly head Wednesday, the 23-year-old is still averaging enough minutes per game to offset the drop. Taking Hunter's PRA (20.5) at -120 is also a nice idea, although if you really want to get a bingo chip set in your parlays, taking the over on 3.5 rebounds (-134) is almost insultingly low considering he's had just one game lower than five rebounds this season.
This one doesn't really fit in either category, but because it's more points-centered than others it's worth mentioning the over on Jerami Grant's total PRA (24.5) is incredibly intriguing given the odds (+100). Considering Grant has scored 24 points alone in all but two games this season, it's hard to imagine how this doesn't hit when you're also getting whatever he totals in terms of assists/rebounds for nothing. Just thank DraftKings for the free money and move along.
Assists/Rebounds
I like the idea of targeting the under on Joel Embiid's 44.5 PRA (-103). The Wizards have been absolutely dreadful at stopping opposing centers (third most points, second most rebounds allowed to the position), but centers more so than any other position can always be at risk of foul trouble, and we also know Embiid's lengthy injury history could appear at any given moment. Neither of those reasons are enough to take the under specifically, but the 44.5 PRA is close to six points higher than his season averages to date, and we know the 76ers have been prone to take out the big man if they get a substantial lead. Most of that comes in the boost to Embiid's points, but they also ran up his rebound figures to the point where it's hard to really feel confident taking the over.
Sticking with the 76ers, it makes sense to grab the over when it comes to Ben Simmons' 8.5 rebounds (-127). The Wizards allow the fourth-most rebounds to point guards per game this season and Simmons also has double-digit rebound totals in each of the last four games. He's played at least 35 minutes in three of the four games during that stretch, and the one game he didn't was because Philadelphia had already locked up the win by the start of the second half. There's probably value to be had in taking the over when it comes to Simmons' PRA (32.5), but the rebounds feels like the surest of the aforementioned options.
I wish there was a prop bet available for the Zach LaVine over in terms of points, but at least as of this writing there isn't one on the table. We still should try and get some action of this Kings/Bulls game which has the fourth-highest listed over/under of the night (227.5) so I'd recommend taking the over for De'Aron Fox's 7.5 assists (-127). The young point guard has only one game over that figure thus far through the 2020-21 season, but the Bulls have allowed a whopping 10 assists per game to point guards this year, so this is essentially a bet on talent merging with noticeable trends. Grabbing the PRA over at 34.5 gives you better odds (-107) but the lack of rebounds might ultimately be the downfall in that combination.
Wednesday Locks
- over 13.5 points for De'Andre Hunter (-110)
- over 3.5 rebounds for De'Andre Hunter (-134)
- over 24.5 total points/rebounds/assists for Jerami Grant (+100)
- under 44.5 total points/rebounds/assists for Joel Embiid (-103)
